Leaving town
Population dips as residents grow older, domestic migration slows
Rachalle and Kevin Christensen are leaving Michigan for family reasons. “I think the pandemic made it clear how important family is to us,” said Christensen, who is returning to her hometown of Windsor, Ontario, where she and her husband plan to build a new home next to her mother.
Christensen came to Michigan when she was 17.
A cross-country scholarship to Wayne State University and its prestigious doctor of pharmacy program is what prompted her to move to the area as a college student. It’s also where she met Kevin, who was also attending WSU on a cross-country scholarship. He is a Michigander but grew up on the west side of the state and like Rachalle was drawn to the area because of what WSU had to offer.
“I lived on the campus in Detroit. It was nice. We had all of the amenities there. It was close to concerts and I was only 10 minutes away from my job at Karmanos Medical Center,” said Christensen, who now works for CVS.
The ability to attract more young people from across the United States is significantly important considering Michigan’s population decline from July 2020 to July 2021.
The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that Michigan’s population dropped by 16,853 during that time period, the seventh-most of any state.
Researchers say there are several factors that may have contributed to that oneyear population decline including a continued decrease in net migration, people who moved to Michigan from another state or abroad, and the long-standing increase in deaths coupled with a lower birth rate as Michiganders grow older.
Another factor that’s new to the equation of changing populations is the pandemic.
“Again, we won’t know more about why the recent population is changing (COVID versus migration) until the more detailed American Community Survey is released,” said Heidi Lyons, Ph.D., associate professor of sociology at Oakland University. COVID deaths were significant, and that would impact population numbers, but what appears to be having a greater impact is the way the pandemic changed how people live and work.
Population patterns
Prior to 2020, Michigan had been gaining population each year from 9,877,535 residents in April 2010 to 10,077,331 residents in April 2020. As of July 2021, the state’s population stood at 10, 050,811.
Some of the significant changes in population include:
• Macomb County: -3,557
• Oakland County: -2,391
• Wayne County: -15,409
Biggest gains: Ottawa (+2,370), Livingston (+1,041), Montcalm (+705)
Biggest losses: Wayne (-15,409), Macomb (-3,557), Oakland (-2,391)
Although Macomb and Oakland counties saw declines in population between July 2020-2021, these same counties saw some of the largest population increases (greater than 4.7%) between 2010 and 2020, said Caleb Buhs, spokesperson for the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget.
During this time period, the state experienced a natural population decrease of 14,353 with a total of 117,336 deaths and 102,983 births, making it the first time in over 120 years that the state’s deaths have outnumbered its births.
Regardless of COVID-19, which has killed over 33,000 Michiganders since March 2020, state population experts say the number of deaths would have outnumbered births as Michigan’s residents have continued to grow older and the state’s birth rate continues to decline.
Reynolds Farley, research scientist and professor at The University of Michigan’s Population Studies Center and Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, said the state’s birth rate has been going down for years as the death rate has been increasing.
“Even before COVID, we were seeing an increase in deaths from despair or deaths from drug overdose,” he said. “Michigan is not a low death rate state. Folks in Hawaii live about three years longer (80.9) on average than people in Michigan (78).”
In 1990, the state’s birth rate was 16.4 births per 1,000 population with 153,080 total births, but in 2020 the state’s birth rate was 10.4 births per 100,000 population with 104,166 total births. That’s a numerical decrease of nearly 50,000 births and a percentage decrease of 32%.
Caleb Buhs, spokesperson for the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, said Michigan will likely soon enter a period of natural decline even in the absence of additional mortality due to COVID-19.
“However, as noted, because of the increased deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the trend toward natural decrease was accelerated and 2020 was the first year since at least 1900 that Michigan had more deaths than births.”
At last count, 3.23 million Michiganders, or 32.5% of the state’s 2010 population, were age 50 and older. Fast forward to 2020 and 3.77 million Michiganders, or 37.8% of the state’s population, are 50 and older.
Steven Lesniewski grew up in Chesterfield Township. But when he and his wife retired, he was a truck driver and she worked at Ford Motor Company, they decided Arizona was the place to be.
Now they’re moving back.
After 17 years they’ve decided they wanted to live out their days around family.
“We bought a condominium in Chesterfield not far from where my brother lives,” Lesniewski said. “We don’t have any family in Arizona. Now that we’re both getting older we want to be around people we know.”
Rob Scalici of RE/MAX Metropolitan also knows of a few snowbirds looking to return to Michigan.
“One of them is moving back to Richmond, where he grew up. He said he would take a tornado in Macomb County over a hurricane in Florida any day,” he said.
These people represent a small percentage of the domestic migration that Macomb County has experienced between July 2020 and July 2021.
Domestic and international migration
During this time period, the state struggled to attract residents from other states, but it saw a net positive in the number of people who moved to Michigan from other countries.
Census Bureau data shows that Michigan’s net domestic migration was -7,893 while the state’s net international migration was 4,167.
Locally, Wayne County had the largest decrease in domestic migration at -15,857, followed by Macomb County at -2,167, although it had an increase
in international migration of 250. Among the counties that saw the largest increase in domestic migration were Muskegon (956), Monroe (831) and Montcalm (868). Oakland County recorded the biggest international migration increase at 1,150.
Kurt Metzger, demographic and director emeritus of Data Driven Detroit, said Michigan’s long-standing demographic issue is domestic outmigration, the fact more people leave Michigan for other states than make the reverse route.
“Our population trends ride on this trend,” he said. “When our economy has had recessions, we have seen domestic migration losses over 80,000 in spite of natural increase — more births than deaths — and increased immigration. When our economy has been strong, domestic migration losses have fallen to 10,000 to 20,000. Natural increase and immigration have been able to overcome this and resulted in population growth.”
Between 2018-2019, a total of 132,008 Michiganders moved to another state while 37,274 moved to another country. Some of the top destinations included California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Texas.
What are the common reasons for moving?
Over 27 million Americans surveyed by the Census Bureau between 20102021 cited the following as their top reasons for moving:
• Wanting a new, better, larger home
• Family reasons
• New job or job transfer
• Cheaper housing “While there are many
stories across the country of recent immigrant groups settling in rural communities, the vast majority head to metropolitan areas,” Metzger said.
Among the cities in Macomb County that have contributed to its international migration numbers are Sterling Heights, Warren and Clinton Township.
Metzger said Michigan has had no concerted governmental effort to attract immigrants but immigrant settlement is driven by family or friends that have already settled in the area and social service or refugee resettlement agencies that cater to immigrants such as the Chaldean Community Foundation in Sterling Heights.
Changing lifestyles
One factor that has not been in play until now is the pandemic and its impact on where people live and work.
When Christensen and her family moved to Macomb Township she was working at a pharmacy in Port Huron, so the drive up I-94 wasn’t bad. She and Kevin also wanted to live in a family friendly community, which they found Macomb Township to be.
“It’s been a great place to live. The recreation center, the library, good schools, there’s just a lot of amenities here,” Christensen said. “We also got more bang for our buck.”
Once the pandemic hit everyone’s priorities changed.
Christensen and her husband, who were separated from families on both sides of the U.S. and Canadian border, decided being near them was more important to them than living near the place where they work.
Kevin like many whose work life changed like many during the pandemic can work from home while Rachalle will have a 40-minute drive from Windsor, Ont. to Clinton Township. They’re not alone.
Scalici has several clients who don’t need to live near their jobs anymore.
“I don’t know if it’s ever going to go back to where we are all working in an office again but I see a lot of people taking advantage of being able to live where they want,” Scalici said. “It’s a very strange dynamic in the workplace right now, and I think that is changing the dynamics..”
Attracting younger residents
When Scalici’s daughter was looking for her first home she was determined to find something in Royal Oak or Rochester because they’re cool cities to live in.
On the west side of the state younger people are also attracted to Grand Rapids because of its strides in regional transit.
“Then I showed her what her money would buy her in St. Clair Shores,” Scalici said.
After seeing a home and learning about the amenities the city has to offer to young people including parks and bike paths, boating on the lake and numerous shops and restaurants she became sold on the lakefront community.
Scalici said young people need to know Macomb County is not just a great place to live and work. It’s a cool city where $224,934 will get you the same home that you might pay hundreds of thousands more for in places like California.
This question of how the county can attract young people was part of the conversation during the Chamber Alliance of Macomb County’s Economic Forecast this month.
Vicky Rowinski, director of Macomb County Planning and Economic Development (MCPED), said her department is tackling the question with a two-prong approach that will help talent retention and talent attraction.
“We have a program called ‘Fueling the Talent Pipeline’ to address the growing concern of retaining a viable workforce starting with our early age students (K-12) and getting them excited for careers that are located here in Macomb County,” said Rowinski. “The program connects employers with educators to provide meaningful career exploration activities for students and to prepare the next generation of our workforce for the interesting and well-paying jobs offered by local companies.”
Rowinski said the county’s approach is collaborative and community-driven.
“We meet with area employers to understand their workforce challenges and then partner them with schools that offer related career training,” she said. “Through these partnerships, students gain greater insight as to how their interests and abilities, combined with the appropriate credentials, lead to rewarding careers.”
Macomb County’s business attraction model has been very successful and it’s this same one it will use in luring new talent to the area.
“Under the ‘Make Macomb your Home’ marketing slogan, we promote Macomb County as a great place to live, work, play and build a business. Our low cost of living (95.9 to the dollar) outpaces many other communities, affordable housing, high demand and high paying jobs, and great quality of life make Macomb County an attractive place to relocate,” Rowinski said. “Our relationships with major colleges and universities throughout the state are pivotal in attracting talent to our county where the jobs reside. Recruiting talent is a major factor in this and we stand alongside our businesses and universities to be that connection point.”
Lyons, the Oakland University professor, concurs.
“I think Michigan has a lot to offer. We have tremendous and impressive higher education institutions, which attract younger people from all over the world,” she said. “The state can help by providing more funding to higher education institutions so that we can attract more young people and then try to get them to stay and start their families here.”