2020 was a box office year like no other
When the sun sets on the 2020 film box office, it’ll be difficult to look at the numbers as anything but disastrous.
After five consecutive years of North American revenues exceeding $11 billion, this year they’re expected to cap out at an almost 40-year low of around $2.3 billion. That’ll be down 80 percent from last year according to data firm Comscore. Globally, where markets have been able to recover more fully, ticket sales will likely end up somewhere between $11 and $12 billion. Last year, that total hit $42.5 billion. But of course, 2020 is a year with a big asterisk.
“It’s a year like no other,” said Jim Orr, president of domestic theatrical distribution for Universal Pictures. “We’ve never seen this little business in this industry.”
Outside of January and February, it’s impossible to judge the year’s box office by pre-pandemic standards. Box office, in aggregate, is usually fairly predictable. But when theaters shut down March 20, that “all went out the window,” said Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore. “The unpredictability became the constant.”
Most North American theaters weren’t open for six months straight through the summer season, which typically accounts for around 40 percent of the year’s profits. For the past two years, the summer movie season has netted over $4.3 billion. This year it brought in $176.5 million, much of that from drive-in theaters.
When indoor theaters did start to reopen, it was at limited capacity and with limited product. Currently, about 35 percent of theaters are open in the U.S. and some of the biggest markets, including New York and Los Angeles, remain closed. Although there has been a steady stream of new releases, the blockbuster tentpoles have been few and far between. Some went to streaming services, others became premium digital rentals, but most simply retreated into 2021 and beyond.
Perhaps there is no more telling fact than that 2020 was the first time in over a decade without a Marvel movie. The Walt Disney Co.’s superhero factory has for the past two years topped the year-end charts with “Avengers: Endgame” and “Black Panther,” and has regularly had two or more films in the top 10.
Unsurprisingly, the 2020 top 10 is a little chaotic and comprised mostly of films from the first two months of the year. Sony’s Will Smith sequel “Bad Boys for Life” has stayed in first place in North America since its January release with $206.3 million. Globally it’s in second place to the Chinese film “The Eight Hundred”— the first time that the top worldwide film originated outside of Hollywood. The only post-shutdown films to crack the top 10 are Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet,” in eighth place with $57.2 million and the animated family sequel “The Croods: A New Age,” which was released at Thanksgiving and has earned $30.8 million so far to put it in 10th place.
And at least 15 films in the top 100 were retro releases, including “Hocus Pocus,” “The Empire Strikes Back,” and “The Nightmare Before Christmas.”
The pandemic also changed the way opening weekends, once a reliable indicator of a film’s long-term prospects, are judged.
“The instant gratification that we used to be able to deliver on Sunday mornings after opening on a Friday? It’s probably not going to happen again for quite some time,” Orr said.
Theaters have embraced enhanced safety protocols and experimented with different ways to get people back into seats, including private theater rentals, but attendance throughout the fall and winter remained limited.
Moviegoing in 2020 is the story of an industry that employs some 150,000 fighting to stay afloat until normalcy returns.
But effects on the businesses have been staggering and it may be a while before the full impact is known. Some innovations have been well-received, like Universal’s landmark agreement with various exhibitors to shorten the theatrical window from 90 days to as little as 17 days in some cases. Others, like Warner Bros.’ decision to release all of its 2021 films on HBO Max and in theaters simultaneously, have not.
It’s no secret that streaming services, whether subscription or on demand, filled a huge gap for film fans looking for new content. While athome options will continue to compete with theaters for consumer eyes and dollars, few believe that they are a death-knell for theaters. By and large, studios are not looking to abandon the theatrical model, even if some priorities have shifted to streaming.
“I do think there’s a bright light at the end of the tunnel,” Orr said. “As vaccinations continue to roll out, I am 100 percent convinced that people will come running back into theaters when it’s possible in their area. The model is not going away.