How long can US defy inflation?

WASHINGTON — With prices across the economy — from food, gas and rent to cars, airfares and hotel rooms — soaring at their fastest pace in decades, you might think Americans would tap the brakes on spending.

Not so far. Consumers as a whole are showing surprising resilience, not only sustaining their spending but increasing it even after adjusting for inflation. In April, the government said, retail sales outpaced inflation for a fourth straight month. It was a reassuring sign that consumers — the primary drivers of America’s economy — are still providing vital support and helping allay concerns that a recession might be near.

Yet at the same time, there are signs that some people, especially in lower-income households, are starting to cut back, by shifting to lowerpriced or alternative items or by skipping some purchases altogether as inflation shrinks their disposable income.

Still, several trends are driving Americans’ spending, including rising pay, savings amassed during the pandemic and a rebound in credit card use. Those savings and continued wage gains, economists say, could fuel healthy spending throughout this year.

Economists say, though, that overall debt hasn’t yet reached problematic levels. They estimate that households still have about $2 trillion in savings beyond what they would have had based on pre-pandemic trends.

And Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics, notes that household debt is equal to 86 percent of disposable income, sharply lower than its peak of 116 percent in 2008.

“Never bet against the U.S. consumer,” Ashworth said.