Randy Myers says there could be a surprise win at the Oscars.
What a difference a year makes. As Hollywood prepares to honor itself Sunday, let’s flash back to this time last year.
In 2016, much of the debate around film awards focused on the lack of diversity. This year, however, the #OscarsSoWhite campaign doesn’t apply. The focus has shifted to the appropriateness of passionate political speeches from celebrities. Will that hold true with the Oscars? You bet.
Times are tumultuous, and Hollywood is our culture’s mirror. That could result in surprising upsets and I suspect we’re in for at least one shocker.
Here are my picks for what will win/what should win on Hollywood’s biggest night.
Best Supporting Actress
The nominees: Viola Davis, “Fences”; Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”; Nicole Kidman, “Lion”; Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”; Michelle Williams, “Manchester By the Sea”
Whowill win: This one’s easy. Harris made us detest her hate-spewing mom who later feels the burden of regret, but her druggedout character was a bit of a stereotype. Kidman resisted manipulative grand gestures to portray a mom whose son seeks out his birth mom, but she doesn’t stand a chance. Spencer didn’t stretch, but, oh man, can she bring snap to those lines. “Manchester” had one of the most uncomfortable cinematic exchanges between exes ever, but Williams is on no one’s radar. Davis, a force of nature in “Fences,” will win. No one does voice-quaking, tear-streaming, nose-running anger better than she does.
Who should win: Davis. She does everything right, especially the tensed-up body language of a woman who’s been treated so poorly by her husband.
Best Supporting Actor
The nominees: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”; Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”; Lucas Hedges, “Manchester By the Sea”; Dev Patel, “Lion”; Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Who will win: What an eclectic bunch. As a poised-for-retirement sheriff nettled by two bank-robbing brothers, Bridges displayed true grit, but that might just be why he won’t 89TH ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS WHEN: 5:30 to 9 p.m., Sunday WHERE: ABC
win again. Hedges provided needed comic relief as a horny teen dealing with grief in his own way, but he’s too much of a newbie. Patel made us weep as we followed along with him on his quest, but the role didn’t demand much emotional range. Shannon’s intense sheriff stood out in Tom Ford’s crazy “Animals,” but the performance was hardly complex. So the trophy goes to Oakland native Ali for his beautifully calibrated, perfect performance in “Moonlight.”
Who should win: Ali. Oscar prefers broad brushstroke performances, but Ali was the guiding light of the film — a drug dealer as conflicted about life as the main character. And the scene when he teaches “Little” how to swim was one of the most beautiful and heartfelt moments of last year.
Best Actor
The nominees: Casey Affleck, “Manchester By the Sea”; Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”; Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”; Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”; Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Who will win: The big question is whether voters will ignore the odious sexual harassment allegations leveled against Affleck. They won’t, so they will be looking at other performances. Garfield’s performance was good, but the role of a Christian pacifist dodging limbs and bullets while saving lives demanded he be even better. Gosling’s smooth jazzman made us swoon, but the actor’s crooning didn’t exactly hit the high notes. The fearless Mortensen showed his all (literally) in “Fantastic,” but there’s no traction. Passed over in the directing category, Washington will win for his calculated performance, along with his fearless dedication, in bringing playwright August Wilson’s tour de force to cinematic life.
Who should win: Af- fleck. The allegations make me queasy, but if you’re basing the win on performance, his broken-down handyman should be a shoe-in. His portrait of a man tortured by an unfortunate past is one the finest acting feats we’ve seen. Reward it.
Best Actress
The nominees: Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”; Ruth Negga, “Loving”; Natalie Portman, “Jackie”; Emma Stone, “La La Land”; Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Who will win: As a rape survivor intent on finding out what makes her attacker tick, Huppert proved again that she can do provocative better than anyone else. Negga could be the upset She delivered an understated performance as a woman whose marriage becomes a landmark civil rights case, but it’s too understated for voters. The versatile Portman tapped into the grief of an enigmatic first lady, yet that affected way she numbingly recited her dialogue — no matter how justified— was off-putting. Streep belted it out as a performer whose singing could shatter mirrors in “Florence,” but she’s won too many times already. That leaves Stone, whose big-eyed dreamer was the heart and soul of “La La.” She will win.
Who should win: Huppert. I had issues with “Elle,” but Huppert made the movie work. It was a demanding and challenging part few could tackle with the conviction and understanding than her.
Best Director
The nominees: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”; Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”; Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”; Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester By the Sea”; Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Who will win: Jenkins deftly drew out three moving performances out of three actors playing the same character, but “Moonlight’s” esoteric style won’t captivate Oscar voters. Denis Villeneuve engaged brains and emotions, but the Academy doesn’t respect sci-fi. Lonergan made us feel as if we lived right there in Manchester, but this film’s simply too much of a downer. Gibson splashed his bloody thoughts all over the big screen and it was fascinating to puzzle through, but “Hacksaw” suffered from tonal issues. So it’ll be that upstart Chazelle dancing his way up to the podium for making us fall for musicals again.
Who should win: Jenkins. No other filmmaker in this category sustained such a unique atmosphere and vision. That he never wavered in three acts — using a different actor as his lead character each time — should clinch the win.
Best Picture
The nominees: “Arrival,” “Fences,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Hell or High Water,” “Hidden Figures,” “La La Land,” “Lion,” “Manchester By the Sea,” “Moonlight”
What will win: “Arrival”? Too many aliens. “Hacksaw Ridge”? Too much blood. “Lion”? Too sentimental. “Manchester”? Too bleak. “Hell or High Water”? Too goodold-boy. “Fences”? Too stagey. “Moonlight”? Too artsy, So it’s down to two: “La La Land” and “Hidden Figures.” Prevailing wisdom suggests “La La” has it in the bag since Hollywood adores itself (isn’t that what the Oscars is all about?). But this is a crazy time, my friends. Given the turbulence of our country and the genuine need for inspiration, compassion and hope, “Hidden Figures” will rise above and get its due, just like the three female characters whose story it told. Which is fine; it’s a solid film and a real crowdpleaser. What should win: “Moonlight.” Jenkins’ lovely drama created the most real and unique vision in this category and said volumes in actions, inactions and words. It IS the best picture in every way — editing, acting, writing, directing and cinematography. What a shame it will be ignored.