Ace-queen a frustrating combo
Leading up to Super Bowl weekend, the MidStates Poker Tour hosted the inaugural $1,100-buy-in “Poker Bowl” tournament at The Venetian in Las Vegas. The event drew 695 players and saw Michigan poker pro Jordan Young capture the title.
However, one of the most interesting hands of the tournament didn’t involve Young at all. It happened in Level 18 between Mike Harvey and Joseph Phanyaseng with 53 players remaining. With the blinds at 3,000-6,000 plus an ante of 1,000, Phanyaseng raised to 16,000 from middle position, and Harvey reraised all in for 120,000 from the small blind. Phanyaseng called.
“I have the hand you always see right before you leave a tournament,” Harvey said pessimistically.
He then showed As Qs, which was up against the 8s 8c of Phanyaseng. In poker, a pocket pair up against two overcards, essentially a 50/50 proposition, is known as either a “coin flip” or a “race.”
In this hand, the math tells us that Phanyaseng was technically a 52.6 percent favorite to win the hand, while Harvey had a 47.0 percent chance of survival. (There was also the miniscule possibility of a tie.) Even though this wasn’t exactly half and half, it was still close enough to be considered a coin flip.
Why was Harvey so down on his chances? Simply put, ace-queen is a hand upon which experienced poker players prefer not to pin their tournament life. That’s because it doesn’t exactly play well against the range of hands with which an opponent would call.
For instance, in this hand, Phanyaseng opened with a raise, a clear sign of strength. We know that he at least liked his hand enough to enter the pot by committing chips, as opposed to folding it. What types of hands would he do this with? It’s safe to say he’d do it with any pocket pair, any big ace (such as ace-king, ace-queen or acejack), and possibly any two face cards (any combination of a king, queen and jack).
Of those, which hands would he fold to a shove? We can safely assume he’d ditch the face-card combinations, but the rest of the hands are candidates for a call. Therein lies the problem: Of the hands in Phanyaseng’s calling range, ace-queen is only ahead of ace-jack.
Basically, whenever you move all in with ace-queen, chances are you’re only going to get called when you’re beaten. Many times you’ll find yourself dominated by ace-king. In other instances you’ll be coin-flipping for your tournament life. It’s just not an appealing spot in which to invest your chips.
As it turned out, Harvey actually took the lead on the 3c Ad 2h flop, which made him an 89.6 percent favorite. Unfortunately for him, the dealer burned and turned the 8h to give Phanyaseng a set. Harvey was drawing dead, and much to his dismay, his earlier premonition had come true.
The next time you’re playing poker, remember the perils of ace-queen.