VTA expected to approve overhaul to public transit
Faced with a $21.4 million operating shortfall and a staggering loss of riders, the Valley Transportation Authority on Thursday was expected to approve major changes to its bus and light rail routes, focusing more service on San Jose’s east side and downtown and reducing its reach in outlying areas like Gilroy and the west valley.
The VTA will set in motion fare hikes of 50 cents over the next two years. Bus service from Fremont to tech areas in Sunnyvale and Mountain
View will end. And the DASH line through downtown San Jose will be replaced by the Rapid 500 bus. The impetus is the opening of the BART extension into San Jose late this year. Route changes should be in place by the end of the year.
The VTA’s 12-member board, comprised of elected officials from around the county, was expected to approve the proposed changes, developed after a two-year study, at its board meeting Thursday night.
Most Bay Area transit agencies are feeling the pinch in ridership as more and more people turn to personal cars, ride-booking apps and corporate shuttles as cleaner, safer and more reliable alternatives. So many people have stopped riding buses and trains despite worsening traffic that even ardent transit backers fear many solo drivers may not get out of their cars anytime soon.
“This is an absolutely pivotal time for public transit,” said Stuart Cohen, executive director of TransForm, a transportation and land use group. “Ride-hailing companies like Uber and Lyft are absolutely changing travel in urban areas. We are at an inflection point and unless we make some changes, and fast, I predict we’ll likely see bus ridership decline at a faster clip.”
VTA expected 47 million rider trips through June 30, but the actual ridership is projected to be lower than 37 million for this fiscal year.
BART, Samtrans and even Caltrain have felt major to occasional dips in the number of people riding their vehicles while San Francisco MUNI and AC Transit have seen steady, healthy increases.
The old ways of predicting transit use has been flipped upside down, say officials like Cohen. A robust economy that has congestion levels beginning as early as 6 a.m. and lasting past sundown doesn’t seem a major factor in how people decide to get to work.
On lines with busy routes, some people are weary of not finding a seat on Caltrain and grubby riding conditions and crime on BART. A VTA bus or light rail trip can take twice the time of driving.
When the Riverview business-housing complex opened, it attracted more than 300 riders onto buses and light rail. That number has dropped significantly in the past year, says the VTA.
And corporation shuttles are picking up employees even at the VTA’s doorstep at its headquarters at River Oaks off First Street.
It’s not just Uber and Lyft luring people off buses. Stable gas prices have some drivers thinking $4 a gallon gas is in the rearview mirror. Car purchases have been on the rise in Santa Clara County since 2013 when the legislature authorized the issuance of driver licenses to all residents without requiring proof of legal status. Registration at that time was 1.4 million; now it’s 1.6 million, or 200,000 more in the county.
“That has affected our ridership,” said VTA General Manager Nuria Fernandez, adding that “data show about a 30 percent increase in households with three-plus cars as compared to five or 10 years ago.”
Meanwhile, sales tax revenues used to fund transit have dropped significantly, partly fueled by internet sales where no taxes return to local cities. And fares now cover only 10 percent of VTA’s cost of a ride, down from 14 percent a few months ago.
“We are far below anybody else,” Fernandez said, and far below its goal of 25 percent.
Agencies are trying to deal with new reality. Express buses now run on Alum Rock Avenue in San Jose and are planned on Stevens Creek Boulevard and in the Oakland area and in San Francisco.
“Have Uber and Lyft eaten into transit agencies’ market share? Sure they have,” said John Goodwin of the Metropolitan Transportation Commission. “For those who have a choice in how they travel, convenience, cost and comfort loom large.”
The VTA plan is modeled on a similar effort in Houston, another sprawling region similar to the South Bay. And ridership there has trickled higher in the past two years.
“The first and most important thing to do is get buses out of traffic,” Cohen said. “Give them their own lane when possible. ... And convert more highway lanes to express lanes so they have a fast ride when on the highway.
“Bravo to VTA for getting ahead of this trend,” Cohen continued, “as they are about to experiment with more frequent service on their core routes, which serve most of their riders.”
The impact of BART could help reverse this trend, with thousands of riders transferring to light rail in Milpitas, as well as running more buses more frequently through areas that now have the most riders.
“It matters how often the bus or train comes,” said Ratna Amin, a spokesperson for SPUR, another Bay Area transportation group. “VTA’s plan seeks to move in this direction and we think it is a smart direction.”