Good reads are just half the battle
When we succeed at a difficult portion of a challenge, we’re sometimes so pleased by our success that we lose the focus to see the challenge through to completion. Unfortunately, this happened to me in a fateful hand on Day 2 of this year’s World Series of Poker Main Event.
After starting with a stack of 50,000, I finished Day 1 with 66,000, which put me right at the tournament average. When I arrived at my new table for Day 2, I went through my normal routine. I paid attention to tells and patterns of play from the two opponents on my left and the two on my right. (Those are the players you’re likely to play the most pots against.)
The opponent on my left, an amateur who admitted that he got lucky in two different qualifiers to earn his $10,000 entry, displayed a bona fide tell when he was bluffing: His betting hand would shake ever so slightly when he bet. He had over 120,000 to start the day, built it up to 150,000, then bluffed away 50,000 on three hands where he displayed the tell.
With blinds at 400-800, I raised to 1,900 from late position with As Qd. The player to my left called from the button, and the blinds called as well.
The flop came Qh 7d 3c. I bet 4,000. The readable player called, and the blinds folded.
A harmless 2s hit the turn. I decided to check to give my opponent the chance to bluff on a dry board, as he had shown an inclination to do. Bingo. He bet 4,000 with a shaky hand. And then ... my error. I was so pleased with myself for both discovering the tell and inducing the action that I blew past my normal decision-making process. I quickly made it 11,000. That was nearly three times the size of his bet — a raise ratio that should work when an opponent does not have a strong hand.
What I forgot to consider was that he had led out for about 25 percent of the pot. By raising 7,000 more, I offered him better than 5-to-1 odds on his money: 7,000 to win more than 37,000 (with implied odds of making more if he hit the river). He called, to my initial surprise.
The 6s hit the river, and I couldn’t fathom that card making his hand. Another mistake. His call had me so confused that I should have opted to check and call any bet. I bet 16,000 into a pot of 37,600 as if I were begging for a call — which I was, albeit incorrectly. My opponent tanked for two minutes, chatting away, saying he felt he was being trapped. Until he called. He held 6h 3h. Two pair.
My opponent had only five outs, so technically he made the wrong play to call. But knowing I was strong, he correctly assumed I would add more to the pot on the river.
My error was being so thrilled with how the hand was developing that I skipped a critical variable in the decisionmaking process. All I had to do was bet 20,000 when I check-raised. The pressure would have been too much for my opponent, and I could have secured a quality pot. Instead, I lost over half of my stack.
Maintain focus until a hand is completed, and you’ll increase your chances of success. Alex Outhred is a poker coach and poker player with more than $500,000 in live and online poker tournament winnings. He has cashed in more than a dozen WSOP events. Follow him on Twitter: @alexpokerguy.