Don’t underestimate the value of bet-sizing

Here’s a hand from a $500-buy-in poker tournament that illustrates the importance of bet- sizing.

With blinds at 1,000-2,000 plus a 200 ante, the action folded to our Hero in third position at a nine-handed table. He raised to 5,000 out of his 75,000 stack with Ks Kd.

I like Hero’s preflop raise. The only time raising larger makes sense is when most of your opponents refuse to fold any reasonable hand before the flop, which could easily be the case in a $500-buy-in tournament.

The player in the hijack seat, who had proven incapable of folding any reasonable hand to any bet, made the call, as did the button, small blind and big blind.

The flop came Kc Qd 10s, giving Hero top set. The blinds checked, and Hero bet 12,000 into a pot of 26,800.

While betting was certainly the right play, Hero should have bet larger, perhaps 17,000. Betting larger would set up Hero’s stack up nicely to go all in on the turn. Also, this coordinated high- card flop likely connected well with at least one opponent’s hand. Almost no one would fold any pair with a decent kicker on this board to a 17,000 bet.

It’s worth pointing out that checking, hoping to trap someone, would not be a good idea on this board because there are many turn cards that could give an opponent a better hand than Hero, and also because the opponents’ ranges include medium- strength hands such as Q-J and A-10 that would call a bet but would not bet if checked to.

Only the hijack called. The turn was the 7h. Hero bet 25,000 into a pot of 50,800, leaving 33,000 in his stack.

If Hero had decided to go all in on the turn, it would have been an overbet — 58,000 into the 50,000 pot. If Hero had bet 17,000 on the flop, he would have had 53,000 in his stack, and the pot would have been 60,000, allowing him to go all in for less than the size of the pot. While this may not seem like a big deal, you’ll find that many players will happily call a bet for slightly less than the size of the pot, but they’ll fold to a bet of slightly more than the size of the pot.

I’m OK with a small turn bet, but since Hero knew that his opponent wasn’t capable of folding any reasonable hand, an all-in shove still might have been best.

The opponent called. The river was the 2h. Hero went all in for 33,000, and his opponent thought for a while before folding.

Hero played the river well. When you have the effective nuts as the aggressor and only a small amount of money remaining in your stack, going all in is the only viable option. It’s unfortunate that the opponent folded. Poker is a difficult game because seemingly inconsequential decisions early in a hand often turn into larger problems later. Also, you rarely know if a play is definitively right or wrong. That said, I’m quite confident that a larger flop bet would have made this hand work out better for Hero in the long run.