Warriors have the ability to contain Rockets’ offense.
Houston has yet to seeWarriors’ Death Lineup, so clash may disappoint
Back in June, when the Rockets traded for Chris Paul, the basketball world collectively marked their calendars 11 months in advance for a Golden StateHouston showdown in the Western Conference finals.
We did not have to break the date.
The matchup gets underway Monday, with one of the best offenses in NBA history — the Rockets’ — going up against the presumptive champions — the Warriors.
In many ways, this Houston team represents the Warriors’ strongest in- conference opponent since the Kevin Durant-led 2016 Oklahoma City Thunder.
But I don’t expect a thrilling seven-game series like that Western Conference finals two years ago. Instead, I’m thinking that the series will be over a full week before the NBA Finals start, the result of a Golden State gentleman’s sweep.
Yep, give me the Warriors in 5.
Before you cry “hot take,” let me explain my rationale: The more I look at this series and the paths these teams took to get to it, the less I think it’s going to be an epic affair between two worthy adversaries.
The reason is simple: The Rockets haven’t seen the best the Warriors have to offer yet.
In three regular-season matchups, theWarriors did not use their Death Lineup against the Rockets. Injuries, rest and disinterest all played roles in the Warriors holding back, but knowing that
Golden State didn’t play its best five at any time, it should come as no surprise that Houston won two of three games.
But the Warriors appear to be rounding into their best form just as we head into the most important series of the year, and that stellar play is spearheaded by the Death Lineup — the unit that played a major role in the Warriors’ 16-1 postseason run last year.
The Death Lineup can get buckets in bunches, but it’s also one of the best defensive lineups in the NBA. In fact, it’s almost tailor-made to stymie the Rockets offense, as it can switch defensive assignments at all five positions, swarm in the paint, close down passing lanes and protect at the rim. With Draymond Green at center and Andre Iguodala on the floor with Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, the Death Lineup presents a super smart, wickedly adaptable unit that boasts incredible defensive instincts.
The Rockets have a reputation for having a fast-paced, dynamic offense, but that reputation doesn’t match the reality. Houston’s offense is downright slow and hardly dynamic: this postseason Houston has attempted nearly 100 fewer passes per game than the Warriors and it has moved less than any other NBA team. ( Yes, there’s a statistic for distance traveled.)
That makes the Rockets somewhat predictable — coach Mike D’Antoni might have some wrinkles he will toss out every now and again, but their offense is pretty basic: A ton of 1-5 pickand-rolls and isolations. (More than 50 percent of the Rockets’ offensive plays this postseason have been isolations or pick-androlls, by far the highest percentage of any team in the league.)
Houston has gotten away with being slow and methodical and basic because it has two of the best on-ball creators in the game in James Harden and Paul. With them, the Rockets aimto exploit mismatches in the most direct way possible, and that’s laudable, but looking at the defensive lineups the Warriors can trot out against Houston, I’m wondering where those mismatches will be found.
Thompson, Iguodala and even Durant can all give the Warriors minutes against Harden one- on-one. Curry has looked good on the defensive end since his return, which mitigates some of the Rockets’ advantage in having both Harden and Paul on the court — though expect Curry to be tested in isolation early and often in this series. Houston thinks he’s the liability, but if that’s the best the Rockets can do, the Warriors are in good shape (so long as Curry is).
(Side note: Golden State would love to have Patrick McCaw available for this series.)
Beyond that, the Warriors will lean into switching on pick-androll defense. Having Durant or Green defending on the perimeter isn’t a problem for the Warriors, and behind that switch, the Warriors’ collective length and athleticism means they can forma wall in the lane, shutting off passing lanes to the wings, and still close out on shooters if Harden or Paul kick it out after a drive.
There’s no defense that can totally shut down Harden or Paul, but the Warriors are as well-equipped to slow them and their standing-around brethren as any team in the league.
It’s not just the Death Lineup either — unless Steve Kerr decides he wants to inexplicably play Zaza Pachulia or JaVale McGee at center in this series (it has happened before), the Warriors will willingly switch everything on defense against the Rockets. Kerr has no problem letting Green, Kevon Looney or Jordan Bell defend a guard like Harden on the perimeter, and the defensive versatility of those centers undercuts so much of what Houston wants to do on offense.
When Utah figured out how to slow Houston’s pick-and-roll in the second-round series, the Rockets moved from the pickand-roll to isolation sets. Is that a great plan against theWarriors? I would advise against it — Golden State is allowing only 0.6 points per possession and a 29 effective field-goal percentage against isolations this postseason.
No, the Rockets will likely need to throw another kind of smoke on offense against Golden State, and so far in this postseason, I’m yet to see one.
Don’t get me wrong, the Rockets are a really, really good team and the Warriors should have plenty of “appropriate fear” in facing them, but the Warriors have has taken their dynamic defense to another level in the postseason — they’re actually engaged now — while Houston has become more predictable in the playoffs.
Both teams have great offenses, but only one team has a truly great defense — the Warriors. There are 100 factors in this series — a thousand things we can break down ahead of Monday’s Game1 — but that’s the one that stands out above them all.