Europeans skeptical of trade truce with US

BRUSSELS » European officials are struggling to make sense of what seems a temporary trade war truce between President Donald Trump and the European Union, following the visit of EU leaders to Washington this week.

Trump and Jean- Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, announced Wednesday they had agreed to work toward resolving disputes over steel and aluminum tariffs, delay proposed car tariffs and talk about a bilateral trade deal.

“Objectively this a good news, that we avoided so far tariffs on cars,” said a senior EU diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

But in capitals across Europe, a number of national officials echoed that sentiment, heralding the meeting as having prevented a trade war. German Finance Minister Peter Altmaier, for instance, called it a “breakthrough.” But others were wary, wondering whether it’s realistic to expect Europe to buy more soybeans from the United States, as Juncker signaled, or to become “a massive buyer” of liquefied natural gas from the U. S., as Trump declared.

And to some European eyes, the more feasible parts of what Trump and Juncker discussed look a lot like the goals of what was known as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, an initiative begun under President Barack Obama that aspired to free trade with Europe.

Wednesday’s joint statement between Juncker and Trump included calls for easing trade barriers in sectors such as pharma- ceuticals, chemicals, medical products and services — sectors that were also discussed within TTIP. Those negotiations have been mostly dormant since 2016, when they were sidetracked by Britain voting to leave the European Union and the United States electing Trump.

And then there are questions about the particulars.

As far as soybean imports, prices from Argentina and Brazil tend to be a good deal lower than prices from the United States, according to an EU official.

U. S. prices have fallen somewhat in recent weeks, since China enacted its own set of soybean tariffs. But soybeans intended for Chinese markets can’t necessarily be redirected to the EU, which has stringent regulations on genetically modified foods.

According to a senior EU official, there have been no discus- sions about lifting those standards to purchase U.S. soybeans. The same official said that agricultural products were outside the talks between Juncker and Trump, directly contradicting comments from Treasury Secretary Wilbur Ross, who said Tuesday that “all agricultural products are something that will be discussed.”

“Ross can say what he wishes, but it does not correspond to the joint statement,” the diplomat said.

A similar situation exists regarding liquefied natural gas, said a European diplomat working on trade issues. That provision was likely meant as a German concession to the White House, the diplomat said, given Trump’s recent anger about the Nord Stream 2 pipeline deal, whichwill bring gas to Germany from Russia. Nord Stream 2 hasn’t been abandoned, though. And U.S. gas remains far more expensive, because of shipping costs.

For some trade analysts, the concern was less about the particulars of the Trump- Juncker détente than how Europe plans to deal with Trump, who only recently called the EU a “trade foe.”

“Let’s go back a step,” said Demertzis, the economic analyst. “What’s the strategy here, to the extent that the EU has a strategy?”

She noted that the bloc has recently signed major trade deals with other partners, notably Japan.

“If yougo and strike a dealwith Mr. Trump, you have to think how that fits into the strategy,” she said. “Striking a deal would do damage, in my view, to what you’re trying to do on a broader level.”