African-Americans for Trump may nix Dem hopes for 2020
The provocative Donald Trump certainly seems to be disliked by a majority of African-American professional athletes, cable news hosts, academics and the Black Congressional caucus. Yet there are subtle but increasing indications his approval among other African-Americans may be reaching historic highs for a modern Republican president.
Some polls indicate Trump’s approval rating among black voters is nearly 20 percent — far higher than the 8 percent of the African-American vote Trump received on Election Day 2016.
A recent, admittedly controversial Rasmussen Reports poll showed African-American approval of Trump at 36 percent.
Even 20 percent African-American support for Trump would all but dismantle Democratic Party presidential hopes for 2020. Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election with 88 percent of the black vote. That was about a six-point falloff from Barack Obama’s share in 2012.
But far more importantly, an estimated 2 million of the African-American voters who voted for Obama in 2012 simply didn’t vote in 2016.
Even a small drop in AfricanAmerican turnout or anything less than the usual 85 percent to 90 percent supermajority for a Democratic presidential candidate on Election Day can prove fatal. Why?
Republican presidential candidates routinely win up to 60 percent of the white vote, and about 70 percent of voters are white. That margin may widen, given that progressive Democrats aren’t working to recapture turned-off white working-class voters.
With diminishing white support, Democrats need massive-minority turnout and bloc voting — especially among African-American voters, who make up about 12 percent of the electorate.
Roughly a third of Asians and Latinos vote Republican, and voter turnout generally isn’t as strong as among whites and African-Americans.
But why is Trump having any success in undermining the connection between African-Americans and Democrats?
A recent jobs report revealed the unemployment rate for African- American teenagers fell to 19.3 percent, the lowest figure on record — in marked contrast to the 2010 rate of 48.9 percent under Obama. Overall black unemployment is currently at 5.9 percent, almost a record low.
The economy is growing at nearly 4 percent per year. The robust growth coincides with Trump’s effort to curb illegal immigration and imported labor. This has empowered minority job applicants in ways not seen in nearly half a century. In a job-short economy, laborers suddenly have leverage. And wages are rising.
Trump’s nationalist message adds to this sense of empowerment, especially when he campaigns on putting Americans first.
A former entertainer, Trump is courting African-American celebrities such as rapper Kanye West and football legend Jim Brown. Activist Candace Owens and her Turning Point USA organization are trying to convince black voters that being politically independent forces both parties to compete for the African-American vote.
Ironically, Trump is focusing on the African-American community much more than progressives are focusing on the estranged white working class.
Trump might also redirect black support on other issues, such as abortion — supposedly a Democratic sacrament. But few progressives discuss the high rate of black abortions. African-Americans account for up to 35 percent of all abortions. And liberal family-planning advocates weren’t always shy about their occasionally eugenics-inspired agendas. Planned Parenthood founder Margaret Sanger once professed that birth control was to discourage reproduction of “the unfit.”
Other issues that might appeal to African-Americans include access to charter schools, and how environmentalism and over-regulation raise the cost of housing, fuel and electricity.
Trump might also direct his message to all Americans, including African-Americans. As a group, they are already doing better economically today than during the Obama administration — and everyone gains political clout when politicians must work for, rather than feel entitled to, their votes.