Holding back can put you out front
The ability to size a bet appropriately is among the most critical skills for a poker player to master.
Recreational players often bet to protect a quality hand. But proper bet sizing is not just a way to price out opponents to win pots, but also a way to encourage intended calls and ensure value as a hand progresses. Sizing optimally can also save your stack for another hand to come should things go awry.
Let’s say a recreational amateur, “Joe,” is sitting in the hijack seat with 5,000 chips at 25-50 blinds. A player in middle position raises to 175. Holding Ad Qd, Joe rearises to 450, and the initial raiser calls.
On a flop of Qc 8d 3c, the opponent checks, and it’s on Joe. If any club, 9, 10, J or K hits the turn, it could cost Joe either the lead or value that could be acquired with a bet. Joe has to bet.
Often, amateur players will overbet the pot here, sacrificing value for security. By analyzing the actual risks in play, Joe will find he’s better off gambling in the name of getting his opponent’s money in the pot.
He might not realize it, but Joe wants any hand with a Q or an 8 to call. He wants any pair of jacks or less to call. He wants gutshot straight draws to call as well, as all of these hands have less than a 10 percent chance to overtake him on the turn. It should be a priority for Joe to get value for having that big of a lead vs. an opponent willing to pay for another card.
A bet of 500 would present Joe’s opponent with a proposition of getting about 3-to-1 on his money, increasing the likelihood of a call from an opponent who’s hoping that Joe is bluffing rather than expecting to improve his own hand.
The turn comes 2s. Hands that were behind Joe on the flop are still way behind on the turn. All of the same rules for acquiring value still apply, and I would advise Joe that betting half of the pot still provides less value (3-to-1) than risk against a flush draw getting lucky (4-to-1).
This is where bet sizing is so crucial. Joe wants to bet, but how much?
If he bets full pot here, he’ll get folds from worse hands, and only better hands will stay. And if better hands stay, Joe would have 2,000 left and will have to decide if it’s all going into the middle in an attempt to win a 10,000-chip pot.
Whatever the river card is, the lesson is essentially as over. Joe has overcommitted his stack while forcing a fold from any opponent he has beat. Not a good position to be in, Joe.
If he bets half the pot on the turn and gets raised after demonstrating a strong hand, Joe can make the smart choice and fold, saving his stack of about 3,000 to stay in the tournament.
Too many amateur players think they have to go all in or try to bully opponents off a hand by making giant bets. But professional players know that often, holding back and correctly sizing your bet to gain information and determine the strength of an opponent’s hand will serve you better and keep you in tournaments longer.