Ability to save or earn chips a key

Today’s hand comes from a $400 tournament at Encore Las Vegas. There were 144 entries, and we were down to the final four players.

Blinds were 5,000-10,000 with a 5,000 big blind ante, and the action folded to me in the small blind. I had 600,000 in chips, and the big blind had 140,000. I looked down at Qs 3h.

Poker has advanced over the years to “solve” spots like this. How it works is by calculating what’s in the pot (in this case 20,000) and determining how often we could move all in and win. If our opponent is only calling with the top 30 percent of hands, we’d win 70 percent of the time.

Then, we’d have to consider how often we would win or lose if called. We would be winning or losing 145,000 in this scenario. Our win percentage would change depending on our holdings and what hands our opponent calls us with. If we had a good hand such as A-9 suited, a small pair or Broadway cards, we’d be winning chips and profitable when called, so those would be good hands to move all in with.

There’s one extra factor to consider: This is a final table, and there are different payouts based on where we finish. We have to be a little tighter since there’s real money at stake and we aren’t purely focused on making a play to win chips.

That said, Q-3 would not be a hand we’d go all in against our opponent with. It’s too weak if we’re called, and it’s not worth the risk. Since we know that moving all in is the wrong play, what should we do?

I think we can make an exploitable play here by raising to 27,000-35,000 or by limping. Folding would be an option, but not with our big chip advantage. If we raise and our opponent moves all in, we can fold. If the opponent calls, we’ll play cautiously moving forward. I opted to call and hope to see a flop, if the big blind let me — which is exactly what happened.

The flop came Ah 5h 2h. I flopped a straight draw and a small flush draw. I bet 10,000, and the big blind called.

The turn brought the Qh. I checked, my opponent bet 25,000 into a pot of 50,000, and I called with my small flush.

The river was the 2s. I checked, and my opponent checked. I lost to his 7h 3c. After reflecting on the hand and doing some calculations, I think the biggest decision was whether to bet the flop. Either choice was acceptable, but the better play would have been to check. That way I could see a turn card cheaply or for free, and I might have had the best hand with queen high anyway. I’d continue with the hand when facing a bet if I hit a flush, a straight or turned a queen. With all of these cards I could check and allow the big blind to continue bluffing or to give me information headed into the river decision. In this case, we both had weak flushes and there was no bet made on the end. We were each happy to find out what the other had.

Most of poker comes down to hand reading, figuring out what betting patterns mean and then getting to the showdown. If you’re able to save or earn chips on any street on the way to showdown, you’ll become a winning player.