Storm from Alaska sweeps in to Northern California today.
A strong, cold storm should hit the region today and Saturday
Looking for a break in the wet weather to cut down a Christmas tree, hang those holiday lights or just get some good outdoor exercise?
It’s coming, but not until Sunday. A significant storm will sweep in from Alaska to Northern California this afternoon, forecasters say, bringing roughly 1 inch of rain to Bay Area cities and up to 3 or 4 inches in the Santa Cruz Mountains and North Bay hills through Saturday night — along with flash flood risks in recently burned areas of Sonoma County and 1-3 feet of new snow in the Sierra Nevada.
“We’ll see a decent amount of rain,” said Suzanne Sims, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey. “It’s not just a light sprinkle. It could dump some heavy rain over a short period of time, but then it will move through fairly quickly.”
The heaviest rain for most of the area is expected late tonight into early Saturday morning, after this afternoon’s commute.
The National Weather Service on Thursday issued a flash flood
watch for this afternoon and evening over the areas burned by the Kincade fire in Sonoma County, along with Santa Rosa, Napa, San Rafael, Petaluma, Novato and Rohnert Park.
“When you have a fire, especially one of that magnitude, and you get a lot of rain over a burn scar, you can have debris flows — mudslides,” Sims said. “With scorched soil, water beads off it. It doesn’t sink in. And there’s no vegetation.”
The Kincade fire burned 77,758 acres in Sonoma County — an area over twice the size of San Francisco — from Oct. 23 to Nov. 6. The blaze, started by PG&E transmission lines near the Geysers geothermal facility, was the largest wildfire in California this year.
The latest storms also will bring sustained winds up to 30 mph in many places, particularly along the coast, with gusts up to 50 mph, which could bring down trees and cause some power outages. The wind forecast prompted the National Weather Service on Thursday to issue a smallcraft advisory and gale warning today for coastal areas from Big Sur to the Oregon border.
Seas are expected to be up to 15 feet high and “could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility,” the weather service said in a bulletin.
Meanwhile, the storm system also triggered a winter storm watch for the Sierra Nevada, where 1-3 feet of new snow is expected today and Saturday.
After a slow start to the rainy year, ski resorts in the Lake Tahoe area and across the Sierra are opening more lifts and seeing business pick up.
“Winter has returned,” said Russell Carlton, a spokesman for Heavenly, Kirkwood and Northstar ski resorts. “It looks white out there on the peaks and mountains. We have good snow right now, and we are expecting more this weekend.”
The three resorts opened last week, mostly with manmade snow, like other Tahoe resorts. Since then, however, several strong storms have dumped significant amounts of natural snow on the Lake Tahoe region. Kirkwood has received 108 inches — or 9 feet — of snow since its opening day Nov. 29, and Heavenly has received 90 inches and Northstar 85 inches.
“People are excited,” Carlton said. “Everyone is always excited this time of year with the new snow.”
And the state’s water picture? It’s looking pretty good so far. Although October and most of November saw near record-dry weather, storms since Thanksgiving week are quickly bringing rainfall totals higher across the state. On Thursday, San Jose was at 55% of its historic average, San Francisco 45% and Oakland 43%. Santa Rosa was at 98%. All were below 10% of normal two weeks ago.
If the upcoming storms bring 1 inch or so of new rain to Bay Area cities, as expected, that will put many at roughly 75% of normal or higher, with more rain forecast for Wednesday after a dry Monday and Tuesday. In short, winter is back on track.
“We went from fires to floods,” Sims said. “Sometimes you get a slow start to the rainy season, but we can catch up if we get a few good storms. We could still have a dry January and people will start panicking again. But for now, so far so good.”