BART needs driverless trains to reverse ridership drop

BART ridership numbers for 2019 are in and they’re troubling for the system and transit advocates. Although weekday ridership stabilized around 5% below its 2016 peak, weekend numbers continued to fall.

Average Sunday ridership of 111,000 was 26% below its height in 2014. To be clear, at least some, and perhaps much, of the decline is attributable to construction-related service cuts. For example, late- evening wait time between trains has expanded to 24 minutes and only one of the four cross-bay lines operates on Sundays.

But the big long-term worry for BART is, now that many riders have found alternate arrangements, will they come back when full service is restored?

To lure passengers back, the transit agency needs to increase train frequency and help passengers get to and from the stations. For that, BART directors should be considering driverless trains and partnerships with ride-sharing companies.

Lower ridership is often attributed to quality- of-life problems on the system. And that’s the case on BART, where today’s passengers might fear they’ll be subject to violent crime, panhandling, filth and odors.

But national trends suggest that other factors may also be contributing to BART’s reduced ridership. According to the American Public Transportation Association, national transit ridership fell from 10.7 billion in 2014 to 9.9 billion in 2018. So, even if BART improves its quality of service, national trends suggest it might not recover lost riders.

During strong economic times, more people can afford cars and the gas they require. Also, the rise of Uber and Lyft has provided on- demand alternatives that are more convenient than rail and bus transportation.

In the Bay Area, the automobile’s travel time advantage is greatest during off-peak hours when cars aren’t slowed by rush-hour traffic jams. At these times, BART frequency is also much lower: once every 15-24 minutes weekdays and once every 20 minutes on weekends. Unexpected delays and train transfers further increase train travel times.

BART could better compete with driving by maintaining five-minute headways during off-peak hours. To limit overcapacity, most trips could be handled by one- or two- car trains rather than the longer trains BART now runs.

But a major challenge to increased frequency is cost. Under the current modus operandi, BART would need to recruit more train operators. BART pays operators a base salary of about $70,000 a year, but when pension, health and other benefits are included, the cost of a full-time train operator typically exceeds $100,000 annually.

A more affordable option would involve making the shorter, off-peak trains driverless. Although BART trains drive themselves, BART employs operators for safety and maintenance reasons. BART’s recently built connector from the Coliseum station to Oakland Airport is running without drivers and more routes should follow suit.

Globally, 69 metro lines covering over 700 track miles were automated as of late 2019. This includes Vancouver’s SkyTrain, which encompasses three lines serving 53 stations and more passengers than BART. Most of Singapore’s Municipal Rapid Transit system, larger than BART, is automated.

As a technology center that is pioneering driverless cars, the Bay Area should be up to the challenge of automated trains.

While automated trains can get passengers around the BART system quickly, further innovation is needed to efficiently get them to and from stations. Denser housing near BART would help, but most potential passengers remain beyond walking distance from their embarkation and disembarkation points.

To reduce this problem, BART should seek to integrate with ridesharing services. Passengers could use a rideshare app to pre-book connecting Uber or Lyft rides and even pay for their entire BART trip as it now begins to accept mobile phone payments. It may even be more cost- effective for transit agencies to subsidize connecting rides, rather than operating underutilized buses. In Dallas, for example, passengers can get discounted rides to and from Dallas Area Rapid Transit stations with UberPool.

To remain relevant to offpeak travelers, BART needs to provide greater convenience as well as a quality, safe, clean ride experience. Automated trains and rideshare integration are two options worth considering.