Improbable win with a lousy hand

I recently traveled to the Bahamas to play in the Caribbean Poker Party. The sponsor, partypoker, qualifies hundreds of players into this $10 million tournament, so it attracts top players from around the world. The field also includes a bunch of recreational players who qualified for the $10,000-buy-in event by winning a $100-buy-in tournament.

On the second day, I found myself at a table with mostly world-class pros — not where I wanted to be. When I’m at a tournament table that’s abnormally tough, I’ll check to see when the table is scheduled to break. If it’s scheduled to break soon, I might play conservatively and wait for a new table draw that will presumably be softer. My table was scheduled to break soon, so I didn’t plan to get too far out of line.

The other players at my table seemed to have the same idea, except for the especially loose, aggressive world-class player on my immediate right, who had just lost a large pot with a bluff. He was left with 1.3 million in chips, which was about half of what I had. Blinds were 30,000- 60,000 with a 60,000 big blind ante.

Everyone folded to the aggressive player, who was now in the small blind, and he limped. I was in the big blind and looked down at one of the worst hands possible, 9s 2c. Raising may have been an option against the sort of weak, passive player who’ll usually let you steal the pot, but not against this one. I checked.

The flop came Jc 10c 4s, and we both checked.

Betting here was an option, but it was quite possible my opponent had a marginal made hand such as 10- 6 that wouldn’t fold, or a draw that would stick around. If you’re going to bluff the flop, the plan should usually be to bet the turn and river as well, which I was not looking to do against a strong opponent possibly willing to call off his entire stack with middle pair.

The turn was the 8s, giving me an open-ended straight draw. My opponent bet 60,000 into a pot of 180,000.

Due to my excellent pot odds, folding was out of the question. The pot odds dictated that I’d need to win 20 percent of the time to break even. I’d improve to a straight about 18 percent of the time. That’s obviously beneath the 20 percent threshold, but when I make a straight, my river bet will occasionally get called, and even if I miss my draw, I may be able to win the pot on the river. The real question was whether to raise.

The problem with raising was that I might be reraised all in, forcing me to fold and making it impossible for me to realize my equity. When you’re getting excellent pot odds, it’s usually best to not do anything that could mess that up.

I called. The river was the 10d, and my opponent checked.

At this point, I had no showdown value, but I easily could have had a weak jack, a 10 or an 8 in my range that would like to value-bet. I decided to bluff, betting 150,000. I figured my opponent would call almost any bet with a pair of eights or better and would fold anything less.

After some thought, my opponent folded, letting me win a pot with a terrible starting hand.