NFL’s next TV deal holds key to Pac-12’s media strategy
So much of the Pac-12’s near- and longhaul existence hinges on real issues with unknown timing. For 13 months, the conference has been seeking a strategic partner to assist with media rights positioning and provide a cash infusion for the resource-challenged athletic departments.
When will commissioner Larry Scott make a deal ... or end the exploration?
Scott’s contract expires in two years. When will the presidents and chancellors decide to extend Scott’s tenure at the helm ... or make a change? The conference needs clarity on its media strategy prior to the upcoming negotiations. When will clarity come to the rapidly-shifting landscape?
It’s all momentous and murky, so concrete and so meta. And the uncertainty of it all hangs over the conference.
On one issue, at least, we have a morsel of insight.
We have a date to circle. Actually, it’s a year: 2021. For now, let’s circle the whole shebang.
Because sometime in 2021, the NFL will show its strategic hand, align its media partners, set the market and start the ripple.
“I see 2021 as an inflection point,’’ Scott told the Hotline last week during an interview about his future with the conference.
“We’ll see who gets which pieces of the NFL.”
The NFL broadcast rights currently owned by CBS, FOX and NBC run through the 2022 season. But because major media contracts are often finalized 15-18 months in advance, the NFL likely will have its new deals in place sometime in the second half of 2021.
That process, Scott believes, will light the path for college football.
The Big Ten’s deal with ESPN and Fox runs through the spring of ‘23. The Pac12’s contracts with ESPN and Fox expire in ‘24. The Big 12’s deals are up in ‘25.
Will the NFL continue to place all, or the majority of its content on the broadcast networks? To this point, the league has made access to the product its top priority.
What role might cable networks like ESPN and FS1, and perhaps TNT and CBS Sports Network, play in the distribution of NFL rights?
“I think we’ll see a re-evaluation of the benefits of the network vs. cable,’’ Scott said hat about the new kids in town, the streaming companies? Could we see NFL games on ESPN+ or DAZN? How many games will be sub-licensed to Twitter?
And the great unknown: Will Amazon, Apple or Facebook, their pockets deep enough to reach Middle-earth, become primary NFL rights holders?
“Looking at 2024 through a 2020 lens is limiting,’’ Scott said. “There will be significant changes when you see the NFL rights go.”
I asked Scott about the most significant short-term change to the college sports media space:
The SEC’s ‘ Game of the Week’ package moving from CBS, its longtime home, to ESPN. The deal likely will deliver more than $300 million annually to the SEC — for just 15-16 games — and is expected to unfold prior to the expiration of the current CBS contract in 2023. It signals an all-in partnership between the most powerful conference in college football and the most influential media company in sports. And some (guilty!) believe it could squeeze the opportunities for ESPN’s other college football partners.
There are only so many dollars available … only so many broadcast windows available … only so many molecules of oxygen available ... within the ESPN/ABC broadcast empire. Scott sees it differently. “We’re monitoring all the deals in college sports, and we have a relationship with ESPN,’’ he said. “But new platforms are opening all the time.
“My expectation is that when we’re ready to discuss our future partnerships, that the notion of (broadcast) windows and shelf space and availability will be different than it is today.”
Scott plans to huddle with the Pac-12 presidents/chancellors and the athletic directors “in the near future” to formulate priorities. At the center of those discussions will be nothing less than the Pac12’s soul: To what extent will the conference prioritize revenue from media partners over accessibility for fans? What works best for network executives in Manhattan often collides with viewing preferences for families of four in Portland and Pasadena.
Scott didn’t offer specifics of the timing for his discussions with the presidents and athletic directors, but his view of the broader media landscape lends insight into the Pac-12’s search for clarity.
“By 2021,” he said, “we can begin divining our strategy.”