You can’t assume that your opponent is living in the past

I recently had the chance to compete in the World Series of Poker Circuit Horseshoe Hammond Main Event in Hammond, Indiana, not far from Chicago. With a $1,700 buy-in, the tournament attracted 989 entrants, offered up a prize pool of nearly $1.5 million and set aside $258,078 for the winner.

Things went well for me on Day 1a, as I worked my 30,000 starting stack up to 305,500 by night’s end. I returned for Day 2 and had no problem cruising past the money bubble, with the top 149 players getting paid.

Then, with blinds at 3,000- 6,000 plus an ante of 6,000, there were 90 players remaining when I got involved in a big hand. Let me preface this recap by saying that the older gentlemen in Seat 2 had just lost a big pot the hand before after his pocket aces were cracked by K- Q.

I looked down at Kc Jd in the lojack seat (three spots to the right of the button) and raised to 15,000 out of my stack of approximately 240,000. The player in the small blind, who had lost the previous hand, called. So did the big blind to make it three-way action. The flop came down Ks Js Ad. Both players checked, and I continued for 20,000 with my two pair. The player in the small blind then check-raised to 53,000, and the other player got out of the way. I found the check-raise rather curious, as this was a flop likely to hit my range pretty hard.

My holding both a king and a jack made it less likely that my opponent had one of either in his hand. If he had pocket aces, kings or jacks, chances are he would have reraised preflop. I thought the same was likely of A-K, which meant the hands I was most concerned about were A-J for a bigger two pair and Q-10 for the flopped nuts. However, with two spades on the flop, there was a good chance he had a flush draw.

I wasn’t able to get a clear picture given the information at hand, so I decided to try to get more by calling and seeing what my opponent would do on the turn.

The 7h that arrived on the turn seemed inconspicuous enough, and the small blind shoved all in for around 300,000, putting me to the test for my tournament life.

I wasn’t thrilled, but at least I had more information. My opponent’s jam led me to believe that he didn’t have Q-10, a hand I’d expect him to try and get value out of as opposed to chasing me off.

Eventually, I decided that my opponent was likely upset about losing with pocket aces the hand before and was trying to scare me away with a flush draw, possibly one that included the ace of spades.

I wound up calling off, only to see my opponent table Ah Kd for a bigger two pair. The 2c river was no help to me, and I was ousted in 90th place, which was worth $2,914. The lesson: Don’t assume your opponent is letting past hands influence the current one.