Follow evidence to sniff out a bluff

In last month’s World Series of Poker Circuit $1,700 Main Event at Horseshoe Hammond in Hammond, Ind., I played an interesting hand in Level 11.

With blinds at 600-1,200 plus an ante of 1,200, I raised to 2,600 from middle position holding 7c 7h, and an opponent in the cutoff seat three-bet to 8,000.

I opted to call, and the flop came down 4h 9c 6s, which wasn’t bad for pocket sevens, given that there were also some backdoor straight possibilities. My hand wasn’t strong enough to bet, so I checked, but it also wasn’t weak enough to fold to a single bet. So, when my opponent continued for 6,000, I thought it prudent to peel off one more card.

I picked up some equity when the 3c hit the turn, as a five would give me a straight. But given my opponent’s line up to this point, I immediately ruled out betting. Instead, I checked to see how my opponent would proceed.

A check would indicate I likely had the best hand, while a bet would provide more evidence (along with his preflop raise and flop bet) that he had a big pocket pair. Well, he did bet again, this time making it 16,000.

I could have given up at this point, but it’s hard to fold when you pick up even a little equity. A five or seven on the river was sure to give me the best hand, and there was still a chance my pocket pair was the best hand if my opponent held some sort of big ace.

I also assumed that after I checkcalled two bets, my opponent would be more likely to check the river if he didn’t improve. I had been playing fairly tight, so even if he did have a big pocket pair, I figured he must have been at least a little concerned that I was trapping with a set. That possibility is usually enough to get a big pocket pair to check the river on a lowly board.

Since I had plenty of chips to work with, I decided to call and see the river, which delivered the 8h.

I checked for the third time, and my opponent moved all in for 32,100. It was a strong move, but I didn’t necessarily think it was indicative of a strong hand. Again, if he had a big pocket pair, I thought he’d check the river for fear of a set.

That got my wheels turning. Would he really go for maximum value with aces or kings? Possibly. What about a pocket pair like tens through queens? Maybe, but I just didn’t see it. I think most players would play it safe and check to showdown. Since he didn’t, I began to think a big pocket pair was unlikely. Maybe nines for a set of his own? That could be, but it could also be a stone- cold bluff.

For me, it became a 50/50 proposition, and I had enough chips to flip the proverbial coin. I called and was thrilled to see that he had in fact been bluffing with As 10s.

If you want to pick off bluffs in poker, follow the evidence and listen to your gut.