Are more closures on the horizon?
All nine Bay Area counties now qualify for state’s watchlist, which could bring shutdowns
For the first time, the entire Bay Area could soon be on California’s coronavirus watchlist — an ominous trend that can trigger new restrictions and business closures.
According to a Bay Area News Group data analysis, every county in the region now has crossed the state threshold for elevated disease transmission, meaning they are reporting 10 coronavirus cases for every 10,000 residents.
Santa Clara, San Mateo and San Francisco counties all recently crossed the closely watched benchmark for new cases. Alameda,
Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, Sonoma and Solano already had topped it.
For weeks, the state’s major trouble spots were in Los Angeles and its neighboring counties in Southern California. As of Thursday, 32 of the state’s 58 counties officially were on the list. Not since the start of the pandemic have all nine Bay Area counties required the state’s extra attention.
“Is it a wake-up call for everybody?” said George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at UC San Francisco. “I would hope so.”
The message behind the numbers is unmistakable: The Bay Area is headed in the wrong direction in its struggle to contain the spread of COVID-19. And while San Mateo and San Francisco have yet to be officially designated with the state’s seal of disapproval, that could happen any day.
“I would be surprised if they weren’t,” said John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at UC Berkeley.
On Wednesday, the number of coronavirus infections continued to soar, climbing above 360,000 statewide, with Los Angeles County recording 4,592, its most cases in a single day. The number of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in California and the Bay Area also continued to peak.
The Bay Area News Group analysis of disease transmission is based on slightly newer data than the state uses to build its watchlist.
So it may provide an earlier snapshot of where California is in its fight against the pandemic.
The news organization analyzes new cases when they are reported by county health departments, a faster method than waiting for them to be compiled by the state.
What’s the watchlist
mean for Bay Area businesses and residents?
Earlier this week, Gov. Gavin Newsom cranked up restrictions on businesses and public activities across the Golden State, as the state experiences a surge in new cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Newsom shuttered bars across the state, along with indoor operations at restaurants, wineries, zoos and more.
And counties on the watchlist, he said, must also close fitness centers, churches, some offices, hair salons and malls.
The data suggests such closures may be coming for more Bay Area residents.
San Mateo, for instance, was still not on the watchlist as of Thursday, meaning it was allowed to keep barbershops and other businesses open. But given the new numbers, residents there could soon be joining other Bay Area counties forced to shut those businesses down.
Nick Dong recently reopened Hair Pro, a barbershop in Redwood City. The prospect of shutting down again is stressful, he said. “The rent still has to be paid.”
Riffing off of Newsom’s
“dimmer switch” analogy for adjusting how aggressively the state reopens to keep the virus in check, San Mateo County Supervisor Dave Canepa said Thursday, “This isn’t about dimming. The light switch in counties is going on and off and on and off, and the power is being turned off.”
But Swartzberg thinks California, like many other parts of the country, is now paying the price for reopening too quickly. “I think in retrospect, even the governor would admit we probably should’ve done what we did on Monday two weeks ago.”
The patchwork of rules, not to mention the fact that counties can be added or dropped from the list as the data changes, has caused confusion and frustration at the local level.
“If I were in Alturas, in Modoc County, I’d be pissed. Zero cases. I can’t open my bar,” Rutherford said. “So for some places, it’s hardly fair.”
Still, he said, “Statewide, doing the thing that will do the greatest good for the greatest number of people, I think it makes sense.”
A county can also land on the watchlist when the average number of confirmed coronavirus hospital patients over the last three days increases by more than 10% from the previous three days.
Santa Clara County is on the watchlist for that reason, and had to scale back its reopening as a result. Yet, by the state’s own acknowledgement, that increase is being fueled in part by patients transferred from overwhelmed counties such as Marin — where San Quentin State Prison has seen a large outbreak among inmates — and Imperial, on the Mexico border.
It may also be driven by people from neighboring counties such as San Mateo or Santa Cruz arriving at top hospitals such as Stanford.
“Don’t think of it as punishment. Nobody said it was fair,” Rutherford said. “If there’s no room at the inn, there’s no room at the inn.”
But it appears there is also some wiggle room for when a county is added to the list.
San Mateo, for instance, was not dinged by the state when its hospitalization rates repeatedly crossed the threshold in recent weeks, according to the news organization’s analysis. According to the county, 40% of its hospitalized patients are from outside San Mateo County, including a number of inmates from San Quentin being cared for at Seton Medical Center in Daly City.
But now that San Mateo has eclipsed the state’s benchmark for disease transmission, its fate appears about to change. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing, experts say.
“We in the U.S. are having a difficult time understanding the enormity of this problem,” Swartzberg said. “And until we acknowledge that we are in a very serious situation, we’re not going to be able to effectively deal with it.”