The Mercury News Weekend

Should U.S. troop withdrawal from Germany worry Americans?

- By Victor Davis Hanson Victor Davis Hanson is a syndicated columnist.

President Donald Trump recently ordered a 12,000-troop reduction in American military personnel stationed in Germany. That leaves about 24,000 American soldiers still in the country.

A little more than half of the troops being withdrawn will return home. The rest will be redeployed to other NATO member nations such as Belgium, Italy and perhaps Baltic and Eastern European countries.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is said to be furious. She claims the redeployme­nts will “weaken the (NATO) alliance.” German commercial interests chimed in that the troop withdrawal­s will hurt their decadesold businesses serving U.S. bases.

Perhaps, but Merkel surely cannot be surprised. Six years ago, all NATO members pledged to spend 2% of their GDP on defense. Yet only eight of 29 so far have kept their word.

Germany spends only about 1.4% of its GDP on defense. As NATO’s largest, wealthiest and most powerful European member, it sets the example for the rest of alliance.

Merkel’s reneging on her 2014 pledge helps explain why less wealthy and influentia­l NATO members also see no reason to meet their obligation­s.

Germany surely knows that 2020 marks the 75th anniversar­y of the end of the World War II and the 29th year since the fall of the Berlin Wall — the symbolic end of the Cold War.

Will there be any point in the future when Europe is confident enough to be a full defense partner with the U.S. rather than an eightdecad­e client?

NATO, of course, still provides a common European defense, but only by habitually relying inordinate­ly on U.S. military contributi­ons. That dependence seems increasing­ly odd when the European Union has an aggregate GDP nearly as large as America’s.

More important, NATO’s front-line threats are now mostly concerned with rogue member Turkey, especially its bullying of Greece and its increasing­ly aggressive stance in the Middle East.

Russia always poses a threat to Europe.

But the likely flashpoint­s are not on the German border, but more likely eastward in the Baltic states or on the Russian frontier with Poland.

Moreover, the Merkel government has concluded, over American objections, a huge natural gas deal with Russia that is currently under some U.S. sanctions and short of cash.

Merkel likes to lecture the world on moral issues, but what is so noble about empowering Russian President Vladimir Putin, who recently reclaimed Crimea and seems now to be eyeing Belarus?

In recent polling, Germans were more anti-American than any other nation in Europe. And while about 75% of Americans believe the U.S. still has a good relationsh­ip with Germany, only about a third of Germans feel that way about the U.S. Nearly half the German population in some polls want U.S. troops out.

With Germany now united, rich and often angry, and with the Soviet threat largely over, it’s Germany, not the U.S., that seems to have altered its view of this once-solid relationsh­ip.

Does Merkel really believe that if her nation cuts huge deals with NATO’s historical­ly greatest threat and refuses to honor its promises to increase defense spending, Germany still deserves a large American commitment of 36,000 troops to anchor its defense?

There is one caveat that the Trump administra­tion and other European countries might consider.

According to its founders, NATO was created for three reasons: To keep the always aggressive Russians “out” of Europe, to keep the often isolationi­st Americans “in” to help protect it, and to keep the supposedly restless Germans “down” in order to avoid a replay of their invasions that ignited both world wars.

In other words, the huge defense commitment to an often ungracious Germany over eight decades was to remind Germany itself of its checkered past.

That third mission seems ossified and silly now. But it is not entirely forgotten, and it may explain why many in Europe— and some in Germany itself — are worried when any American soldiers leave Germany.

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