Giants’ strong start not a fluke.
On April 9, a nascent day of the 2021 baseball season, the venerable baseball stat repository Fangraphs estimated that the Giants had a 3.4 percent chance of making the postseason.
A few months later, as baseball enters its post-All-Star-Game home stretch, the Giants have the best record in baseball.
So much for that algorithm.
No one saw this kind of season coming from the Giants. Even the Giants coaches and players who talked a big game in spring training deep-down didn’t expect this.
But it’s here. The only question now is how far the Giants can take it. What should we expect from San Francisco in the final 73 games? I figure we break it down using those same Fangraphs probabilities.
MAKING THE PLAYOFFS: 90.9 PERCENT
With a start this strong, the Giants need to make the postseason. There are no two ways about it.
There will be trials and tribulations — the Giants’ schedule for the first three
weeks of the second half is brutal — but this team has already fought through injuries and bad vibes. The Giants have proven they’re a rock-solid baseball team and a rock-solid baseball team can win 50 percent of its games for the rest of the year.
Do that, and the Giants will have more than 90 wins.
And looking around the National League, that should be more than enough to make the postseason. The NL Central has one good team — the Brewers (and that’s a stretch) — and no one in the NL East is worth worrying about. (The Marlins are in last place in that division with the second-best run differential.)
Yes, there will be teams that make some runs, but the Giants’ head start is significant. As of this morning, they have a six-game lead in the wild-card standings. They’re running a different race and it would have to be considered a disappointment if they fail to play at least one extra game in October.
WINNING THE DIVISION: 15.7 PERCENT
While I agree with the assessment that the Giants should not be considered favorites to win the NL West, these odds are a bit too low.
Our nation’s bookies agree with me — though they’re not super high on the Giants, either. Per DraftKings and FanDuel, the Giants enter the second half with implied odds of 22 percent to win the division.
I understand the skepticism. The Giants still have 10 games remaining with both the Dodgers and Padres in the final two-plus months as well as series with the Astros, Brewers and A’s. Thank goodness the Giants will play nine more games against the Diamondbacks, otherwise, this would be the toughest remaining schedule for a legitimate contender in the NL.
There are positives to be gleaned from that tough schedule, though — the Giants will get seven shots at the Dodgers before the calendar flips to August. The hope is that the Giants are healthy, clicking, and that success in those games could create a nice gap with the Dodgers San Francisco can nurse over the last two months.
And don’t forget: As surprising as the Giants have been this year, the Dodgers and Padres have been just as disappointing. I don’t think the Padres’ troubles at the plate and the Dodgers’ bullpen blues will disappear, even if they make big trades at the deadline. Those problems are the kind that can’t be patched with a trade or two.
WIN THE WORLD SERIES:
2.3 PERCENT
Not much of a chance, huh?
Well, it’s up from 0.1 percent at the beginning of the season. And while I don’t think the Giants have the dudes to seriously compete for a title, I do know that this is a team that has character. They’re experienced and scrappy and analytically built. All that can make up for a deficiency in talent.
I made the case a few weeks ago that the Giants are more comparable to the Tampa Bay Rays than their contemporaries in the National League West. You can’t quite explain how the Rays do it, but they are consistently one of the best teams in baseball and last year won the American League pennant.
I’ll be honest, I’d still bet on the Dodgers — they’re more flawed than many expected at the beginning of the season, but they’re a superteam.
But the Giants vs. the rest of the National League, including the Padres? I like San Francisco.
There’s not much betting value in taking the Giants at 16-1 (implied odds of 5.8 percent) but I doubt those odds stay that long in the weeks to come.
Remember, despite countless injuries and a steady stream of randos in the lineup, the Giants’ lineup has the third-best OPS in baseball, bashing righties and putting up respectable numbers against lefties. The Platoon Saloon is the place to be.
Add in Giants pitchers having the lowest WHIP in baseball and the second-best ERA and you have a solid foundation.
And the San Francisco bullpen, while shaky to start the year, has stabilized. Since June 1, the Giants have the best bullpen ERA in the game.
Where’s this team’s weakness?
That’s the only question you should ask over the next few months. Because while strength is key, it’s a lack of weaknesses that win titles. Well-rounded, fundamental teams win titles.
The Giants’ front office can also bolster its squad in any number of ways ahead of the trade deadline. They’re not desperate for anything, but they are flush with prospects. That makes them dangerous ahead of what should be a chaotic deadline.
There’s no fluke in this league-best record. Only one team in baseball can make the claim that it’s a better team. Unfortunately for the Giants, that team is in its league and division.
Because of that, I think World Series aspirations are a stretch for the moment. But touch base in a couple of weeks — two series wins against the rivals from the Southland could change that.