49ers need better returns, run defense
SANTA CLARA — A familiar and spooky scenario is afoot: First-year 49ers coach wins his debut, loses the next five games and looks to snap the skid at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
That’s where the 49ers are under Chip Kelly, and it’s where they were in 2005 with Mike Nolan.
Nolan’s outfit — that being his flailing team, not literally his two-piece suit — indeed beat the Bucs 1510 to halt its losing streak. It didn’t do much, however, as the 49ers dropped their next seven games en route to a 4-12 season.
What will it take for Kelly to end the longest losing streak he has ever endured as a head coach? Here are five aspects the 49ers must compete better at against the Buccaneers:
1. Colin Kaepernick’s “homecoming:” This will be Kaepernick’s first home start in a year, since a 20-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Oct. 22, 2015. Even more of an onus is on him now that running back Carlos Hyde won’t play because of a shoulder issue.
Instead of the 22-mph wind he struggled with in last Sunday’s 45-16 loss at Buffalo, Kaepernick should have much better conditions (partly sunny, 9 mph breeze) at Levi’s Stadium, where he is 6-6 as a starter since 2014.
Kaepernick showed better pocket poise but still had accuracy issues against the Bills. He will face a Bucs defense that has only nine sacks. Tampa Bay’s average of 262.4 passing yards allowed per game would be a season high for the 49ers’ offense.
Kaepernick’s legs are more concerning to the Bucs, after he ran eight times for 66 yards in Buffalo. But he has run for only two touchdowns in 157 carries since 2014; he had 12 touchdown runs in his first 180 carries, playoffs included.
“He’s a threat every time he drops back to run the football, and that’s what really he does so well,” Bucs defensive coordinator Mike Smith said. “He sees a hole, and he can take it. I still think he’s got good speed.”
2. Run stoppers: The 49ers’ generosity to opposing rushers is unrivaled in franchise history; the defense has allowed a back to rush for 100 yards in each of the past five defeats. Up next is Jacquizz Rodgers, who’s coming off his first 100-yard outing in 72 career games. Last week’s 312 rushing yards were the second-most ever allowed by the 49ers.
“It’s crazy, because by watching on film, their defense is actually pretty good,” Rodgers told Tampaarea reporters. “… We’re not going to take them lightly.”
The 49ers have allowed nine rushing touchdowns, already more than they gave up in their 2011, ’12 and ’14 seasons. In 2011, they didn’t yield a rushing touchdown until Week 16.
The only new guy on defense this game is probably inside linebacker Gerald Hodges, seeing how Nick Bellore and Michael Wilhoite struggled in Buffalo.
3. Smart returns: Kickoff returns are another problem area for the 49ers, who rank 29th with an average return of 17.5 yards. None of their 13 returns have been longer than 26 yards.
The 49ers have used six returners, including last Sunday’s debuts of Torrey Smith and Keshawn Martin, neither of whom reached the 20 after taking it out of the end zone.
Do returners need to be reminded of this season’s rule change in which a touchback puts the ball at the 25-yard line?
“I think they understand the rule,” Kelly responded. “They’re a pretty intelligent group we’ve got right there. They understand it.”
4. Win against Winston: Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston, last year’s offensive rookie of the year, makes his Levi’s Stadium entrance with a mediocre 75.9 passer rating this season. (Kaepernick’s is 77.8, Blaine Gabbert’s is 69.6).
“I don’t think he’s as athletic as (Buffalo’s) Tyrod (Taylor) in terms of speed and things like that, but he’s not a statue back there by any stretch of the imagination,” Kelly said of Winston. “He’s still a pocket quarterback.”
When Winston has attempted more than 32 passes, he’s 1-10 in his career, including 0-2 this season. Look for his total attempts to stay low, and not just because the 49ers’ run defense is more vulnerable. He can only throw so many times to Mike Evans (32 catches, 449 yards, four touchdowns). Vincent Jackson went on injured reserve this week, and Cecil Shorts (hamstring) is questionable.
5. Replace Hyde: The Carlos Hyde Replacement Tour is back for a second season, and the 49ers will rely on Shaun Draughn and Mike Davis (and possibly DuJuan Harris or Kelvin Taylor) to fill in while Hyde rests his shoulder. Draughn proved capable last year (438 all-purpose yards in six starts).
Kelly has promised a rotation. This could be Davis’ first big chance. However, he has no career starts and wasn’t inspiring last Sunday, especially when he was stopped on third- and fourth-and-1. Of course, Kaepernick’s legs could be the most feared.
Whoever runs, the 49ers must block better than in recent games, and that includes right guard Joshua Garnett if he makes his second straight start and first at home. Kelly has said Garnett must improve all areas of his game.
“I don’t mean it be disparaging, but he needs to improve everywhere,” Kelly said.
The same can be said of the 49ers’ widespread need for improvement — not to be disparaging.