Is the drought over? Sorry, wrong question

Given the massive storms bringing water to California over the past month, people are asking, “Is the drought finally over?”

The term “drought” means different things to different people, but let me suggest this is the wrong question. The end of the drought does not mean the end to California’s water problems. Here are some more appropriate questions and answers.

Is California having a wet year? So far, yes. Precipitation, especially in Northern California, is far above average – indeed, California is swinging from the extreme of drought to the risk of flood. But the wet season doesn’t end until April, and we don’t know if storms will continue to blow in from the Pacific.

How does the snowpack look? After a weak start, recent storms have brought large amounts of snow to the Sierra Nevada for the first time in five years. This is great news, but again, the year is young. Prolonged warm weather could quickly melt mountain snow, as it has in recent years because of rising temperatures from climate change. If temperatures stay warm, our “snow drought” may continue.

Are the reservoirs filling up? Yes, so far California’s big reservoirs are filling rapidly. Indeed, now managers must carefully balance the need to store water for the dry periods while maintaining space in storage to hold back damaging floods. As with the snowpack, we don’t yet know how full they’ll be at the end of the wet season, but so far so good.

Will this year’s rains refill overdrafted Central Valley groundwater basins? No. This may be California’s biggest water problem: Our groundwater use exceeds natural recharge. It’s like a bank account in perpetual overdraft, and the problem worsened during the drought. This year should see a drop in groundwater pumping, but even a wet year won’t prevent continued groundwater overdraft, refill the aquifers, or help thousands of people in disadvantaged communities whose wells have run dry.

Will this year’s rains reverse the damage to California forests? No. More than 100 million trees have died from drought, temperature stress and insect infestation. It will take decades for Sierra forests to regenerate, and dead trees and damaged soils will pose forest fire and landslide risks for years.

Will farmers finally get all the water they want? No. Deliveries to farmers this year will certainly be the highest in several years – great news for farmers who have fallowed land or cut back on irrigation because of drought. But agricultural (and urban) water users will never get all the water they want because formal water rights claims are many times larger than actual water availability. Will a wet year help endangered salmon? Lots of water in rivers and reservoirs will help them, but the real problem for the past few years hasn’t been too little water, it’s been water that is too warm. A good snowpack and cold river flows in the spring and summer should help, but if water remains too warm, pressures on salmon will continue.

Will the official state drought declaration be canceled? Gov. Jerry Brown’s executive drought orders remain in place for the moment. The governor’s office and State Water Board will decide what actions should be taken later in the spring when we have a clearer picture.

Can I stop conserving water at home now and water my lawn, wash my car and take long showers? You can, but you shouldn’t. The efficient use of water should be a way of life, not a temporary reaction to crisis. Every gallon of water you don’t use saves money, leaves water in reservoirs and underground, reduces energy use and protects ecosystems. Californians conserved water during the drought without serious hardship. We should keep up those efforts, even when it’s wet.

Ultimately, “Is the drought over” is the wrong question. We should ask, “Are we managing water in a sustainable manner, for the long haul”? The answer to that is still “no.”

John Steinbeck wrote in East of Eden: “And it never failed that during the dry years the people forgot about the rich years, and during the wet years they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.”

Let’s prove him wrong.