Sunnyvale veteran of Korea drills: Time running out
The United States and Republic of Korea hold military exercises code-named OPERATIONS FOAL EAGLE and ULCHI-FREEDOM GUARDIAN annually around March and August, with thousands of troops drilling against a possible North Korean invasion. The 24/7 computerdriven exercises simulate wartime and customarily end with a Victory Party.
After participating in many exercises, I have developed a deep sense of déjà vu, and appreciate the importance of preparing for the worst.
During the drills, North Korea spluttering bellicose language becomes commonplace. Once, before boarding a Seoul-bound flight, I read online that it threatened “nuclear response” if the planned exercise were held. I started calling my family but decided not to. If it were true, I wouldn’t be coming home soon. Moreover, it was typical of the outrageous rhetoric. I decided not to alarm them.
While many complained that these exercises would provoke further tensions, I caution that being ready now is even more urgent in light of the North’s suspected capability to miniaturize nuclear warheads and launch missiles possibly reaching California. It is testing nuclear bombs of increasing yield.
North Korea has embarked on this dangerous path for two decades. Increasing sanctions, stop-and-go negotiations and even cyber-attacks failed to alter its course. Its mistaken assumption that nuclear-tipped ICBMs would provide the regime with prestige, prosperity, and protection, ironically, may seal its demise.
With its million soldiers and thousands of artillery capable of striking Seoul, which has more than 10 million residents, potential casualties are unthinkable.
For six decades, 30,000 U.S. troops have been stationed in the Republic of Korea under the UN mandate to deter conflict. However, if the North’s ICBMs could reach the U.S. mainland, traditional deterrence is insufficient.
North Korea is estimated to be capable of building six nuclear bombs yearly. Relying on an anti-ballistic missile system to defend the U.S. mainland is optimistic as its effectiveness is uncertain, especially against multiple warheads.
Pre-emptive strikes on nuclear facilities and missile sites would reduce but not eliminate North Korea’s nuclear capability because many missiles are mobile. And North Korean retaliation, with artillery or missiles across the demilitarized zone to Seoul, Busan, Japan or Guam would be beyond devastating.
All are terrible options.
Another unknown is whether China and Russia would intervene. Chinese troops recently redeployed near the North Korean border, but their intentions are unclear — whether to prevent the influx of refugees or to face off American troops. China has stated unequivocally that it would not allow the U.S. to initiate a regime change. A pre-emptive strike could escalate this situation to a conflict between superpowers.
After the latest tests, Korean President Moon Jae-in, who earlier voiced optimism for talks with the North, has reversed his campaign pledge to halt deployment of a U.S. missile defense system. Now the South is even considering rearming itself with U.S. tactical nuclear weapons. With U.S. leaders proclaiming “all options are on the table,” room for negotiation is closing fast.
This is the most dangerous time of our generation, when a war involving nuclear weaponry is actually possible. We must exhaust all diplomatic and economic powers to avert disaster.
The international community must deliver an unequivocal warning with measured rhetoric, backed by economic incentives (however distasteful that might seem) to directly engage in talks with North Korea to disarm.
Otherwise, the military operations will no longer be an exercise. And there won’t be any victory party this time. Otto Lee, a former Sunnyvale mayor, is a U.S. Navy Reserve Commander who served more than six years with Commander Naval Forces Korea and TRANSCOM, providing logistical support during annual exercises in Seoul, Pusan, Daegu and other locations in Korea. He wrote this for The Mercury News.
With its million soldiers and thousands of artillery capable of striking Seoul, which has more than 10 million residents, potential casualties are unthinkable.