Right coach, system can change trajectory of an NFL QB’s career
The jersey sits in an upstairs room in his home near the Rams’ facility. Inscribed inside the jersey’s number is a message that Sean McVay, the team’s first-year head coach, holds dear. “I owe you my career,” it reads.
The jersey is from Kirk Cousins, Washington’s quarterback and McVay’s former protege. Under McVay, Cousins went from a fourth-round surefire career backup to leading the NFL in completion percentage in just one season. With Cousins, McVay showed the NFL that he might be the league’s next offensive mastermind.
As Washington’s offensive coordinator, McVay had a knack for understanding Cousins’ strengths and amplifying them in his game plans. Cousins threw for nearly 5,000 yards in his final season with McVay, and in his first without him, Cousins stands to make almost $24 million. Next spring, when he’s likely to hit the open market, he’s likely to yield one of the largest free agent contracts in NFL history. Without McVay, it’s possible — likely, even — that none of that would have come to fruition.
It’s the sad reality about NFL quarterbacks. The toughest position in sports is so difficult to master that merely being drafted into the wrong situation, with a staff that doesn’t understand how to develop you, can doom a career. And as more young quarterbacks make the switch from college spread offenses to pro-style NFL ones, it’s as crucial as ever that they’re surrounded with coaches who understand how to navigate such a transition.
Talk of a quarterback shortage has been looming for years, as front offices across the NFL continue to decry the lack of pro-ready signal callers declaring for the draft. Before the draft in 2015, Rams general manager Les Snead said the lack of pro-ready options at the position would mean “doomsday, if we don’t adapt and evolve.”
These statements from concerned coaches and front office executives almost always shift blame elsewhere, either to the college game or the college coaches and players, themselves. Rarely, however, do irritated NFL personnel acknowledge that too many of them and their fellow coaches are either ill-equipped when it comes to developing modern quarterbacks or too inflexible to adjust their schemes to their skillset.
Dak Prescott, last year’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, came from a spread offense at Mississippi State and translated that to tremendous success in his first NFL season, thanks to the job Jason Garrett and his staff did shepherding him on offense. But if he would have been drafted by Jeff Fisher, would we be singing Prescott’s praises today? Doubtful.
When the Rams drafted Jared Goff, I asked Tony Franklin, his offensive coordinator at Cal, about concerns many had with Goff’s transition from an Air Raid offense. Franklin brushed them off. A good NFL coach, he said, should know how to put their quarterback in positions to succeed.
“There’s nothing worse than having a really talented guy, but then asking him to do stuff he can’t do,” Franklin told me then.
Goff is a talented quarterback. That much was never in question. But in Week 1, as quarterbacks across the league struggled, Goff offered a few glimpses of how significant the right system and coaching staff could be for the trajectory of his career. He completed 72 percent of his passes and surpassed his previous high in passing yardage by 72 yards. He looked … comfortable. The difference, with McVay’s system in place, was stunning.
Goff was poised in the pocket. His footwork was greatly improved. And he threw the ball confidently downfield. His yards per attempt through the air sat at double last season’s total (5.3 to 10.6) after one game.
Sure, it came against a hapless Colts defense. But just one game was enough to see that McVay has, at the very least, a plan for Goff’s success in place.
Whether that plan will work as well for Goff’s career as it did for Cousins’ remains to be seen. But as the NFL bemoans its ongoing quarterback crisis, just having a credible plan at all is enough to be ahead of the curve. Last week’s record against the spread: 5-9-1 TITANS AT JAGUARS Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: The Jaguars made a clear statement of intent in Week 1. They will lean on their defense and their run game and cross their fingers that Blake Bortles never has to convert a third-and-long. So far, so good, Against the Texans and their porous offensive line, the Jags dominated, racking up a franchise record 10sacks and dragging out long drives with rookie Leonard Fournette. But was it all a mirage? We’ll have a much better idea this week against a talented Titans offense, which could use some Marcus Mariota magic this week to avoid an 0-2 hole. Line: Titans by 1 Prediction: Titans, 23-20 BROWNS AT RAVENS Kickoff: 10 a.m. Outlook: The Browns lost in their 2017debut, but there was nothing but optimism in Cleveland, after they very nearly stole the game from the Steelers. The Browns have an interesting rookie quarterback with some young talent around him and a growing defense to back him up. They might surprise some people this season. But this week — not so much. Baltimore’s defense is fresh off a shutout and could feast on DeShone Kizer’s inexperience. But without much on offense, the Ravens could have trouble shutting the door this week. Expect this divisional showdown to be closer than you think. Line: Ravens by 7.5
Prediction: Ravens, 26-20 BILLS AT PANTHERS Kickoff: 10 a.m. Outlook: When the Panthers made their run to the Super Bowl, they did so on the shoulders of their defense. And through one week, this year’s unit looks awfully strong. Of course, the opener was against the 49ers. But against a Bills offense that struggled to do much against the hapless Jets, the Panthers defense should keep its dominant start going. The questions for Carolina are on offense, where all eyes are on Newton. Can he fit in an offense that more resembles a West Coast system? He has a lot of weapons to make it work. Too many for Buffalo, at least. Line: Panthers by 7
Prediction: Panthers, 27-17 PATRIOTS AT SAINTS Kickoff: 10 a.m. Outlook: It’s rare that Tom Brady has consecutive bad games. The past five times he has failed to throw a touchdown one week, he has responded with three or more touchdowns in his next outing. Against an inexperienced Saints secondary that was just torched by Sam Bradford, the Patriots should feel pretty good about their 40-year-old quarterback. The defense is another matter entirely, and the Saints are no slouch when it comes to lighting up the scoreboard. Drew Brees might not have Brandin Cooks anymore – he’ll be on the other sideline today – but Michael Thomas could be in line for a big game, if the Patriots don’t find their pass rush. Line: Patriots by 6 Prediction: Patriots, 34-24 CARDINALS AT COLTS Kickoff: 10 a.m. Outlook: This game won’t be for the faint of heart. The Cardinals looked terrible in their Week 1debacle in Detroit. The Colts made the Rams’ defense look like a reincarnation of the Fearsome Foursome. Jacoby Brissett is likely to get the start at quarterback for the Colts, given Scott Tolzien’s terrible debut. Carson Palmer was nearly as bad against the Lions, but with their top offensive performer (running back David Johnson) now on injured reserve, Palmer is the only means for the Cardinals to create offense. Arizona is the more talented team here, but no one should have to watch this game.
Line: Cardinals by 6.5
Prediction: Cardinals, 30-13 EAGLES AT CHIEFS Kickoff: 10 a.m., Fox
Outlook: Alex Smith systematically picked apart the Patriots a week ago, but it won’t be so easy in the Chiefs’ home opener. The Eagles have the look of a truly elite defense, with a defensive line that rivals any in the NFL. Your move, Alex. Lucky for him, Andy Reid seems to have a perfect grasp of the Chiefs’ strengths on offense, and with playmakers such as Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt at his disposal, the Chiefs have the look of a legitimate Super Bowl contender. But the Eagles will have something to say about that. If Carson Wentz can stay upright, Philadelphia should keep this one close. Line: Chiefs by 5.5 Prediction: Chiefs, 22-21 VIKINGS AT STEELERS Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: Sam Bradford opened the season with his best Brett Favre impression, which, given his checkdown pedigree, made for a jarringly impressive performance. But is he really that quarterback? Or is the Saints defense just that bad? The Steelers certainly boast a better defense, one that has the potential to be very good if rookie T.J. Watt picks up where he left off in his two-sack, one-interception debut. Even against a solid defense, there’s no way Le’Veon Bell is held in check the way he was in Week 1. Just like there’s no way Dalvin Cook finds as much running room. The Vikings are destined to come back to Earth here. Line: Steelers by 6 Prediction: Steelers, 30-24 BEARS AT BUCCANEERS Kickoff: 1 p.m.
Outlook: Thanks to Hurricane Irma, the Bucs open the season in Week 2with no clarity over whether their offense has ironed out issues from the preseason. We do know that the Bears are going to have their fair share of problems on that side of the ball, even after they nearly beat the defending NFC champions a week ago. There just aren’t enough weapons for Chicago to work with, assuming Tarik Cohen doesn’t become an out-ofnowhere star. Jordan Howard might have trouble finding room against the Bucs’ front, and if the Bears can’t get their offense going, the Bucs’ own struggles won’t matter much. A heavy dose of Jacquizz Rodgers should help Tampa Bay’s offense shake off the rust, but don’t expect an explosive start, right out of the gate. Line: Bucs by 6.5
Prediction: Bucs, 26-24 DOLPHINS AT CHARGERS Kickoff: 1:05 p.m.
Outlook: A blocked field-goal attempt away from possibly winning their Monday night opener, any concern about the Chargers at this point is likely overblown. With Coach Anthony Lynn promising to get back to the run game, Melvin Gordon should be a focal point against a Miami defense that was lax against the run last year. The Chargers’ secondary struggled at times last week against Trevor Siemian, but against a gunslinging quarterback who’s prone to taking risks, the opportunistic Chargers could force their share of turnovers. It’s hard to know what to expect from the Dolphins, given Cutler’s limited work in the preseason. Anticipate a Chargers’ Week 2bounceback. Line: Chargers by 3.5 Prediction: Chargers, 27-20 JETS AT RAIDERS Kickoff: 1:05 p.m., CBS Outlook: This might be the week the Jets settle into their season-long role as NFL punching bags. To their credit, they didn’t embarrass themselves against a bad Bills team. Now, against a real contender, expect the Jets to roll over. The Raiders have a high-flying aerial offense, but in a game like this, expect them to pound the ball on the ground in the second half, once they’re up by three scores. Unless Josh McCown has the game of his life against an improving Raiders defense, this one won’t be close. Line: Raiders by 13
Prediction: Raiders, 34-14 WASHINGTON AT RAMS Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: Kirk Cousins once told Sean McVay that he owed him his career. Now, as the Rams coach, McVay has the task of shutting Cousins down. If anyone here has the advantage of familiarity, it’s McVay. In Week 1, he showed he knew how to call plays to make Jared Goff comfortable. Against Washington, it won’t be quite as easy to get into a rhythm. But for McVay, this is assuredly a statement game, no matter how politely he plays that off. For Washington, which clearly misses McVay – and a few other pieces it lost in the offseason – it’s similarly critical.
Line: Rams by 2.5
Prediction: Rams, 24-23 COWBOYS AT BRONCOS Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. Outlook: Against a nasty Chargers pass rush, Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian looked … well, pretty good, actually. Siemian managed the game effectively, didn’t make mistakes and even juked Joey Bosa out of his shoes. At the very least, he seems improved from last season. The Cowboys, meanwhile, look just as dominant on offense as they did in 2016. On account of his offensive line, Ezekiel Elliott shouldn’t have as much trouble finding room to run as Melvin Gordon did, and with the Broncos’ pass rush ready to eat Dak Prescott alive, Dallas should lean on the running game. This feels like a game that might come down to a late turnover. Line: Cowboys by 2.5
Prediction: Cowboys, 24-20 49ERS AT SEAHAWKS Kickoff: 1:25 p.m., Fox Outlook: Every year, it’s the same problem. Every year, Seattle refuses to address it. The Seahawks have a terrible offensive line, and until that leak is patched, this team is going to drown under the weight of its Super Bowl expectations. It’s that simple. But Week 2is not quite the time for existential crises just yet. Seattle will roll over San Francisco at home, and maybe continue rolling from there. But with a quarterback running for his life and a nonexistent running game, it’s going to be tough to keep up with teams better than the 49ers. Line: Seahawks by 14
Prediction: Seahawks, 24-9 PACKERS AT FALCONS Kickoff: 5:30 p.m., NBC Outlook: In last year’s NFC Championship Game, the Falcons took the Packers to the woodshed, sprinting to a 24-0halftime lead and never looking back. But don’t let last year’s result deceive you. The Packers were beat up by that point, and the Falcons’ historic offense was soaring. This year, the circumstances are different: Atlanta nearly stumbled out of the gate against lowly Chicago, while Green Bay put away Seattle, one of the NFC’s top teams. Without Kyle Shanahan, it might take some time for the Falcons to find their footing on offense. Either way, there are going to be fireworks in this matchup. Line: Falcons by 3
Prediction: Packers, 37-34