CARDINAL IS NEW, NOT YET IMPROVED
Stanford has lacked qualities of recent predecessors in early going
What’s wrong with Stanford? Basically, it’s not Stanford anymore, at least not the same Stanford we’ve seen for the sweep of the decade.
Old Stanford used a dominating offensive line to power a running game that churned unstoppably for 5 or 6 yards per carry; old Stanford had quarterbacks that saw the field and made smart decisions and played best when the game was on the line; old Stanford had a punishing defense that stuffed the run and got off the field on third down.
This Stanford has none of that, at least for the time being, and thus is 1-2.
The offensive line is a mess, as evidenced by last week’s lineup changes that included the insertion into the starting lineup of true freshman tackle Walker Little.
The ground-and-pound, wear-’em-down approach has been replaced by boom-or-bust, with the Cardinal entirely reliant upon big plays by Bryce Love.
In Saturday’s 20-17 loss at San Diego State, Love had three long runs that accounted for 151 yards. His other 10 carries totaled 33 yards.
It was the same situation the previous game against USC, with one Love run for 75 yards and the other 16 netting 85.
Put another way: Four runs by Love have accounted for 40 percent of Stanford’s offense the past two games. The other 80-something have not done much.
Those big plays count, of course.
But it’s not a sustainable model. The Cardinal isn’t built to rely on big plays, doesn’t have the passing game to support that approach and can’t compete for a division title with that offensive structure.
Other observations: • Anyone taken aback by junior quarterback Keller Chryst’s poor efficiency the past two Saturdays wasn’t paying attention to the competition he faced in six starts last season and the ’17 opener.
It was a parade of cream puffs — a series of defenses ranked No. 120+ nationally and not at all an accurate indicator of his ability to execute consistently against top-tier opponents.
Chryst has plenty of physical talent and the potential to be a highlevel Pac-12 passer, but he remains a freshman in terms of game experience (nine starts) and doesn’t see the field as a veteran would.
The competition late last season and in the 2017 opener — a 62-7 rout of Rice in Australia — made him appear more advanced than he is.
Don’t forget, too, that Chryst didn’t have an offseason (because of knee surgery) and that the offensive line plays a central role in any quarterback’s efficiency.
Stanford’s problems up front — the breakdowns in pass protection and lack of consistent running lanes — are making the situation vastly more challenging for Chryst.
Bottom line: There is no downfield element, no ability to stretch the defense. Save for the occasional gash run by Love, it’s plodding and easy to defend.
When Stanford’s offense is working best, the tight ends are heavily involved. The tight ends had one catch against San Diego State.
When Stanford’s offense is working best, it dominates time of possession. It had the ball for 18 minutes Saturday (that’s partly on the defense, too).
When Stanford’s offense is working best, it’s efficient on first down, which leads to efficiency on third down. Saturday, the Cardinal was 3 of 11 on third down.
• There are major problems on the defensive line, too. The Cardinal used to produce one of the staunchest run defenses in the nation.
It has allowed 478 yards on the ground in the past two games.
Solomon Thomas was so good he masked deficiencies elsewhere on the depth chart — deficiencies in both quality of the depth and quantity of the playmakers.
Because the Cardinal can’t stop the run, it can’t force long-yardage situations on second and third down, and because it can’t force long-yardage situations, it can’t get off the field.
Stanford’s national ranking in third-down defense is 114th (of 129). From 2012-16, it was never worse than 45th and twice was Top 15.
Combine it all — substandard play on the lines, no ground-and-pound component, little play-action efficiency and a defense that can’t get off the field — and Stanford’s existence has been turned on its head.
• Next up: vs. UCLA. The matchup: Could be much worse for Stanford given its current shortcomings. Much, much worse.
First off, Jim Mora has never beaten David Shaw, which means none of the UCLA players have beaten Stanford.
After the Ryan Burns miracle drive last year, there is reason to wonder about the Bruins’ state of mind if it’s close in the final minutes.
Of greater relevance: UCLA’s defense is as bad as the cream puffs Chryst faced in his first seven starts. The Bruins are No. 109 in yards per play, No. 122 in points allowed and No. 123 against the run.
Even functioning at modest efficiency, Stanford should move the ball consistently against the Bruins with the run and pass, on first down and third, deep in its own territory and across midfield.
Will the Cardinal have any success slowing Josh Rosen? That’s TBD, but it starts on the ground on first down.
UCLA’s running game has shown signs of life lately. If the Bruins come close to San Diego State’s production (171 yards), then Stanford will have major problems and it becomes a last-possessionwins situation.
In other words: Like last year, except with 2030 more points for each team.
Something like … Stanford 41, UCLA 38.
This is as close to a must-win as you get in September. Lose, and the path to the postseason gets vastly more difficult given how well Oregon and Cal are playing.