Things have fallen apart for Pagano and the Colts
Less than three years ago, the Indianapolis Colts were just a game away from the Super Bowl, with one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks under center and a beloved coach on the sideline.
Chuck Pagano took over a 2-14 team, beat leukemia and won 11 games in both of his first two seasons, and here they stood, just below the NFL’s mountaintop. Few coaches are ever so fortunate. Pagano had the city behind him, Andrew Luck at quarterback and the NFL’s easiest division to navigate. He and the Colts were set for the next decade.
And then, it all fell apart overnight. It’s remarkable, really, how quickly things crumbled: Luck’s shoulder. The front office’s plans. Pagano’s credibility. In a matter of two catastrophic years, the Colts went from perennial playoff contender to leading candidate for the No. 1 pick, and on Sunday, they’ll kick off as home underdogs against the visiting Browns, who’ve won just four of their last 30 and haven’t been road favorites since October 2014, when the Colts were last on course for the AFC title game.
After two weeks of the NFL season, it is natural to overreact. Firing a coach at 0-3, just like anointing a Super Bowl winner at 3-0, is usually misguided. Three games, even in a 16-game season, just isn’t enough of a sample size to make any iron-clad conclusions about anything.
But when it comes to the raging dumpster fire of mismanagement that is the Indianapolis Colts, we can make an exception. Because I’ve seen enough to say that Chuck Pagano should be coaching for his job this weekend.
Luck’s absence is the simple explanation for the Colts’ downfall, even though their issues are rooted far deeper than that. After Luck had surgery on his shoulder in January, the Colts have been unnecessarily cryptic about his status while also refusing to sign a capable backup. When the season rolled around and Luck was unable to go, the Colts were left with Scott Tolzien, a quarterback more suited for work as an insurance agent in Bloomington than helming an offense against the Rams.
The results have been predictably disastrous since. The Colts’ plans, for the better part of two decades, have revolved around their elite quarterback being healthy. And without Luck, their total lack of a plan otherwise has been dutifully exposed. The defense, which Pagano was known for, is now a league-wide punchline. The Rams stomped them for 46 points in Week 1 — so thoroughly, in fact, that Pagano forgot which team had done the actual stomping. A week later, a fading Carson Palmer lit them up for more than 300 yards.
Three years ago, the offense ranked third in the NFL in total yards and sixth in scoring. Now, the Colts are treading water with a third-string castoff quarterback from the Patriots and a 34-year-old running back who may not have any ligaments left in either of his legs. Luck’s return, meanwhile, may still be weeks — or even months — away.
No NFL team has been more thoroughly mismanaged, and in the coming months, even Luck’s return won’t change the trajectory of this franchise.
The Colts’ best hope may be to just blow it up and start again, three weeks into the NFL season, overreactions be damned.
On to this week’s picks ... RAVENS (2-0) VS. JAGUARS (1-1) Kickoff: 6:30 a.m., London,
Outlook: The Ravens defense has faced 25 drives this season. Only twice have opponents scored. That’s just an eight percent success rate for opposing offenses, and while those two opponents were admittedly the disastrous Bengals and the lowly Browns, the Ravens have proven their defense is legit. The same, to a lesser degree, could be said about the Jaguars, whose defense is chock full of young talent. The problem is their Human Turnover Machine at quarterback. The game plan will probably keep the ball out of Blake Bortles’ hands, but inevitably, Baltimore is going to force third-and-longs. Line: Ravens by 4
Prediction: Ravens, 17-10
BROWNS (0-2) AT COLTS (0-2) Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: The Browns haven’t been a road favorite in three years, but as they travel to the factory of football sadness that is Indianapolis in 2017, Vegas has tabbed them as the team to beat in what is certain to be the most depressing game of the NFL season. The Colts are an absolute tragedy. If they lose this game, the franchise might as well hand Chuck Pagano his walking papers. But can Cleveland pull it off? Rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer is coming off a terrible game in Baltimore, but should have a soft landing spot with the Colts’ soft defense. Trusting either him or Indy starter Jacoby Brissett, though, means playing with fire. The Colts feels like the more desperate team here, and that’s something, I guess. This might be the best shot for both teams at avoiding 0-16. Line: Browns by 1.5
Prediction: Colts, 24-21
STEELERS (2-0) AT BEARS (0-2) Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: Just two end zone drops from upsetting the Falcons in their season debut, a lot seems to have changed for the Bears since then. They were steamrolled by the Bucs last week, and with an even more dynamic offense on tap, things aren’t exactly looking up. Ben Roethlisberger has been notably terrible away from Heinz Field in recent seasons, and there’s some reason for concern that those woes will continue against a Chicago secondary that’s not as bad as most thought it would be. More than likely, the Steelers will use this game as means to jump-start Le’Veon Bell, who hasn’t quite gotten it going yet. Line: Steelers by 7.5
Prediction: Steelers, 33-20
DOLPHINS (1-0) AT N.Y. JETS (0-2) Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: Jay Cutler snuck away with a victory in his first game as the Dolphins’ starter, thanks to a missed field goal. He probably won’t need such luck this week. Assuming Cutler doesn’t fully implode, the Dolphins should be able to play keepaway in this game, riding running back Jay Ajayi to a smooth victory. That said, this is Cutler we’re talking about. Miami does have the benefit of a stout run defense, which could keep the Jets from establishing any rhythm. But it doesn’t take much to stop Josh McCown and Co. Line: Dolphins by 6
Prediction: Dolphins, 20-13 BRONCOS (2-0) AT BILLS (1-1) Kickoff: 10 a.m., CBS
Outlook: How you feel about the Broncos right now probably has a lot to do with your preconceptions of Trevor Siemian, the former seventh-round quarterback who has held onto his job in spite of every possible obstacle. With an improved offensive line and run game, it shouldn’t be that surprising how much easier things are for a quarterback. Denver’s defense is still the moneymaker, though, and against a Bills offense that has LeSean McCoy and pretty much nothing else, the Broncos should have little trouble controlling this game. Line: Broncos by 3
Prediction: Broncos, 20-10
TEXANS (1-1) AT PATRIOTS (1-1) Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: In last season’s playoffs, the Texans laid out the perfect blueprint to beat the Patriots, narrowly losing thanks to subpar quarterback play. There’s no guarantee they can replicate that performance this week, with a rookie quarterback in Deshaun Watson facing off against Tom Brady, who’s fresh off a 447-yard aerial assault of the Saints. The Patriots defense has its holes, and if the Texans can get a few breaks, maybe they can keep this close. If Brady has time, he’ll pick Houston apart. Line: Patriots by 13
Prediction: Patriots, 31-16
SAINTS (0-2) AT PANTHERS (2-0) Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: Cam Newton hasn’t been himself for quite a while now. Through two weeks, he has averaged just 200 yards passing and one touchdown per game, and on the ground, he has just 11 rushes for 30 yards. That’s not good enough. Lucky for him, the Saints defense is the perfect cure for anything that ails quarterbacks. Against Tom Brady and Sam Bradford, the Saints secondary has been torched for a combined 793 yards through the air in consecutive weeks, so if Newton can’t bounce back here ... well, it’s not looking good. Drew Brees is about as consistent as it gets, but on the road, outside, against a Panthers defense that’s been fierce through two weeks, he could struggle to keep up in this one. Line: Panthers by 6
Prediction: Panthers, 27-24 BUCCANEERS (1-0) AT VIKINGS (1-1) Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: Sam Bradford will miss this game, and the Vikings will miss him dearly. With Case Keenum taking the reins, they’ll have to lean on rookie Dalvin Cook in the run game to have any chance of staying on the field. Given the Bucs’ Week 1 dominance against the run, it’s not exactly an ideal situation. Tampa Bay trounced Chicago in its season debut, and without Bradford, it should be in good position to make a statement against another playoff contender. Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston hasn’t been tested much yet, but that will change this week, as the fierce Vikings defense will seek to force him into mistakes all game long.
Line: Pick ‘em
Prediction: Bucs, 28-27
FALCONS (2-0) AT LIONS (2-0) Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Outlook: You may not believe in the Lions yet, and you’d be forgiven if you don’t. But their two victories came against teams that were being ticketed for playoff appearances this season, and the defense, easily Detroit’s most criticized unit, has shown up big in back-to-back games. The true test comes this week against the explosive Falcons offense. Devonta Freeman will be the key to this game. If the Falcons can control the ball by establishing the run, the Lions may have a hard time keeping up with such a high-powered offense. Matthew Stafford has looked very good through two weeks, but we’ll see if he’s up to the task of dueling with Matt Ryan. Line: Falcons by 3.5
Prediction: Falcons, 34-31
N.Y. GIANTS (0-2) AT EAGLES (1-1) Kickoff: 10 a.m., Ch. 11
Outlook: Across the league, offenses have looked downright ugly to start this season. But outside of Cincinnati, where the Bengals are still waiting on their first touchdown, no offense has looked worse than Eli Manning and Co. The offensive line can’t block anyone. The run game has been ineffective. And Odell Beckham Jr., the only weapon worth his salt, is still hurting. Enter Philly and its potentially dominant defensive front. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is phenomenal at exploiting an offense’s weakness, and lucky for him, the Giants have plenty to exploit.
Line: Eagles by 6
Prediction: Eagles, 23-13 SEAHAWKS (1-1) AT TITANS (1-1) Kickoff: 1:05 p.m., Fox
Outlook: There’s no sugarcoating it. The Seahawks offense has been awful. They have fewer points than the Andrew Luckless Colts. Just 21 points total. Those issues start up front, but it’s not all the offensive line’s fault. Russell Wilson has started slow, and the run game only just found some sort of identity in the fourth quarter last week. On the road, against a Titans offense that’s gotten off to its own up-and-down start, a hunch says the Seahawks finally settle in. For both teams, establishing the run game early will be crucial.
Line: Titans by 2.5
Prediction: Seahawks, 24-20
CHIEFS (2-0) AT CHARGERS (0-2) Kickoff: 1:25 p.m., CBS
Outlook: The Chargers are the NFL’s best two-loss team, but if Kansas City maintains its momentum from the first two weeks, they’ll probably be the league’s best 0-3 team, too. No team has been hotter to start the season. But the Chiefs also haven’t faced a defensive line like that of the Chargers. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will need to show up in a big way to get the Chiefs offense off schedule. On the flip side, the Chargers must find a way to slow Justin Houston and the Chiefs’ passrush with an offensive line that’s been shaky at best to start the year. Line: Chiefs by 3
Prediction: Chiefs, 31-27
BENGALS (0-2) AT PACKERS (1-1) Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Outlook: Someday, in the possibly distant future, the Bengals will finally score a touchdown. Until then, Coach Marvin Lewis is on the hot seat, while his quarterback’s seat has already burst into flame. Andy Dalton has been a dumpster fire through two weeks, as his offensive line has taken a clear step back. The Packers don’t exactly boast a dominant defense, but with Aaron Rodgers racking up touchdown drives, the Bengals are going to have trouble keeping up in this one. Line: Packers by 9
Prediction: Packers, 31-17
RAIDERS (2-0) AT WASHINGTON (1-1) Kickoff: 5:30 p.m., NBC
Outlook: Washington looked like a competent team in Los Angeles last weekend, thanks to its ground game. But Kirk Cousins is going to have to do more through the air, if Washington hopes to upend the Raiders. Oakland has 71 points through two weeks, and there’s no reason to think that pace can’t continue. With one of the NFL’s best offensive lines, the Raiders should be able to do whatever they want, as long as they avoid turnovers.
Line: Raiders by 3
Prediction: Raiders, 30-20