With ACA repeal nixed, tax reform looks shaky

The PBS documentary on the war in Vietnam offers a compelling look at how American policymakers, by their own admission, struggled to extricate themselves and America from what they conceded was a mistake. The ability of the film producers to include recorded phone calls in Washington interspersed with graphic film clips of pitched air and ground battles offers something far more real than any make-believe war movie.

One of the scenes was the North Vietnamese film clip of John McCain in a hospital bed as a prisoner of war, after ejecting from his plane and suffering two broken arms, a broken leg and a stabbing. It’s impossible to watch him struggle to talk and not think of Donald Trump’s campaign comment when the future president said, “I like people that weren’t captured.”

Shifting to the present, I thought of that same comment when Sen. McCain went thumbs down on the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, and it brought to mind a truism: namely, people often make decisions based on how they feel, and they choose whatever facts and rationale they need to support what they feel like doing.

I have no way of knowing what motives prompted McCain to play a pivotal role in breaking President Trump’s campaign promise to repeal the ACA, but a slur on all of history’s POWs for which there has never been an apology may have been a factor.

The other lesson for the present to come from the Vietnam documentary was the recorded phone call during the Johnson administration, when a senior official opined that we were escalating the war for three reasons: 10 percent to help the Vietnamese people, 20 percent to stop the spread of communism, and 70 percent to avoid the humiliation of defeat.

I think about that rationale when I consider the last-ditch effort (yet again) to repeal the ACA. Maybe 10 percent of repeal was a misguided effort to sincerely help the American people gain the health care we all deserve; but judging from the rallying cries, probably 90 percent was to avoid the humiliation of a broken sevenyear promise.

Coming up next is tax reform, with no way to cut taxes without blowing up the deficit. So avoiding the humiliation of defeat once again will lead to proposals that won’t stand up to any level of scrutiny.

Tax reform shows signs of heading into yet another quagmire, with even more members of Congress enduring presidential browbeating by the time a vote rolls around. The net effect will be growing numbers who may not feel like being very cooperative.

As the struggle continues, the “status quo bias” may just kick in as everyone decides that the current situation is not so bad compared to proposed alternatives. The economy is stimulated enough, and we may not want to eliminate things like the estate tax on wealthy family dynasties, or the alternative minimum tax, which costs a lot for those who would otherwise avoid taxes completely. Speaking of which, we know that Mr. Trump paid $31 million of “alt-min” tax in 2005 thanks to his single disclosed tax return, so this tax is sounding better all the time.

As for climate change, does anyone see a reason why this year’s hurricanes couldn’t happen year after year from now on? For the first time in history, the Gulf of Mexico temperature never dropped below 73 degrees last year.

Shouldn’t the Environmen-

tal Protection Agency be adding more climate scientists to try to resolve, once and for all, if there’s a possibility that climate change is caused by human behavior?

If it turns out to be true beyond denial, we would be wise to increase subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars in hopes of avoiding the $15 billion tab for each of our future storms.

So here we are in October. There’s a good bet that nothing may happen between now and the end of this year, or even by the end of next year. That could be a blessing in disguise. While it may be counterintuitive, legislative gridlock in Washington often leads to stock market gains.