Don’t let the turkeys ruin your run to postseason
Editor’s note Nate Jackson, a San Jose native, spent six seasons in the NFL. His books include “Slow Getting Up” and “Fantasy Man.”
As fantasy football nears the end of its regular season, the motivations of the players in your league have split in half. One half believes it will make the playoffs and win it all. They’re engaged in the process and excited to have proven their football acumen.
The other half has no shot at the postseason and has grown bitter. Nothing seems to go right for this group. Each week, every player they decide to leave on the bench has a career day, while the guy they started in his place fumbles twice then pulls a hamstring. They feel this reflects poorly on them as a person, which it does.
They become a sort of grinch going into Thanksgiving, and their family looks at them with pity as they check their phone again for scoring updates in the Giants/Washington game.
For these losers, the only redemption lies in destruction. Destabilizing the league with radical trades and slick waiver wire pick-ups may bring fantasy flounderers some joy. They stack their rosters in a way that hordes players, keeping them from playoff-bound teams that need them, and, God willing, knocking a few of them out of the running altogether. On to week 11! There were several injuries last week that will immediately affect fantasy scoring. Cornerback Richard Sherman of the Seahawks ruptured his Achilles tendon, which will destabilize the Seattle secondary against the Falcons on Monday. Without the ability to isolate Sherman on an opponent’s No. 1 receiver, look for Julio Jones to draw double-teams all day, which will free up receiver Taylor Gabriel. Falcons running back Devonta Freeman was also injured last week. Tevin Coleman replaced him and got 20 carries. Coleman and Gabriel could bear fruit for the Falcons.
Packers running back Ty Montgomery hurt his ribs again. He was never not hurt, probably, but now it’s bad enough to land him on the injury report. Running back Aaron Jones is also banged up. That leaves Jamaal Williams alone in the backfield versus the Ravens. He’ll receive the bulk of the carries for a Green Bay team without a solid passing attack. Start him.
The Titans and Steelers play tonight in prime time. Two bruising defenses will meet on a week of short rest. Typically that would equal a low-scoring affair, but the Steelers’ secondary is hurting, including a broken fibula for cornerback Joe Haden, which could open things up down the field for the Titans, who are on a four-game winning streak. That said, the Steelers are also on a roll, and tend to be dominant in prime time. I’d steer clear of this game.
The Panthers, Colts, Jets and Niners are all on a bye this week.
Every coach has his own bye-week philosophy, adjusting the week’s schedule to accommodate the temperature of the team. The longer you coach, the more refined becomes this bye-week science. Kansas City coach Andy Reid is 16-2 after a bye week, a record that has contributed to the Chiefs being favored by two touchdowns on the road versus the New York Giants this week.
Also contributing to the lopsided point-spread is the Giants’ inability to punch their way out of a wet paper bag. But they are pro athletes, after all. They do have pride. The last time the Giants were two touchdown underdogs was in week 6 on the road versus Denver—a game they won. Look for the Giants to give the Chiefs some trouble, and at least cover the spread.
Giants tight end Evan Engram had nine targets last week against the Niners, and wideout Sterling Shepard had 13. They’ll keep getting the ball. Despite the Giants’ team woes, keep these men in your lineup.
The Rams travel to Minnesota in a matchup of two of the league’s best teams. People are slow to give credit to good teams if they were predicted to be bad. I imagine that neither the Vikings nor the Rams mind the overlook.
QBs Jared Goff of the Rams and Case Keenum of the Vikes each threw for more than 300 yards last week. More than Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger and the rest of them. Their favorite targets are wide receivers Robert Woods and Adam Thielen, respectively. Even though this is shaping up to be a defensive battle, start all four of those men if you can.
And finally, two New Orleans running backs were in the top 15 in fantasy scoring last week — Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.
Typically, when you think of the Saints, you think Drew Brees throwing TDs. This conventional wisdom has allowed the Saints to establish a new identity right under the noses of the defensive coordinators who though they had things figured out. The best teams are the most malleable. The worst are the stiffest. So, loosen up, would ya?