Cal visits Stanford for 120th version of The Big Game.
Signs point to Cardinal romp, but Cal has more bite under new coach Wilcox
The 120th Big Game has all the trappings of the 119th Big Game. And the 118th, and the 117th and all of them, really, since 2009.
That was the last time the game was in doubt in the final minute, the last time the ancient rivalry felt like anything could happen.
At first blush, the matchup Saturday at Stanford Stadium looks to be more of the same.
The Cardinal is a 16-point favorite, fresh off a takedown of Washington, playing for the division title and undefeated at home.
The Bears are in the first year of a major rebuild, without a handful of their top players and winless on the road in conference play:
Three roadies (Seattle, Eugene, Boulder), and they have yet to be competitive into the fourth quarter.
Another Big Game blowout is at hand, right?
Yes, absolutely … for sure … probably.
Peel back the exterior, and there are reasons to wonder if this just might be the year Cal takes possession of The Axe for the first time since 2009.
It’s not likely, not by any stretch. But in contrast to so many of the recent duels, this installment carries the faint outlines of an upset.
Here’s why:
• There are stakes both ways.
With a victory, Stanford (7-3, 6-2) would be one result from the division title:
If Washington beats Washington State — and the Huskies have dominated the Apple Cup of late — then the Cardinal would advance to the conference title game against USC.
On the other hand, Stanford would be eliminated from the division race with a loss Saturday.
Cal, too, is playing for the postseason.
The Bears (5-5, 2-5) must win one of two to reach the six-victory threshold necessary for a bowl berth. If not in the Big Game, the win must come next week at UCLA.
• Styles make fights, which is a good sign (if you favor drama).
To beat the Cardinal, an opponent must be reasonably adept at running the ball and stopping the run.
Cal could do neither during the Sonny Dykes era and never had a realistic chance to retake the Axe (and has the lopsided losses to prove it).
But under first-year coast Justin Wilcox, the Bears are more physical, better fundamentally and capable of containment: They’re No. 63 nationally in yards-per-rush allowed, up from No. 128 (dead last) in 2016.
What’s more, tailback Patrick Laird provides an effective presence in the running game, an area of vulnerability for Stanford’s defense (75th against the run).
The key for Cal: Limiting Cardinal defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, who can obliterate any play, any time.
• Wilcox and David Shaw have a history.
Wilcox is plenty familiar with Stanford’s style of play, just as the Cardinal is well aware of Wilcox’s tactical leanings.
He spent four seasons as the defensive coordinator at Washington and USC, and faced Stanford each year.
The first three meetings, Wilcox’s defenses held the Cardinal four combined touchdowns.
Not until the final two games — both in the 2015 season, when Stanford had high-level quarterback play from Kevin Hogan — the did Cardinal break through.
The Bears will be ready, especially with an extra week to dissect Bryce Love and Co.
Don’t discount the impact of their Nov. 11 bye on health and preparation.
• The rookie quarterbacks.
Rare is the Big Game rookie who doesn’t struggle to keep energy and emotion in check.
When the rivalry rookie is a quarterback, a level of uncertainty enters the calculation.
When both teams have rookie quarterbacks, chaos lurks.
Neither Stanford’s K.J. Costello or Cal’s Ross Bowers has taken a snap in Big Game.
Look for both to have jitters early. But at what point will they settle in … if they settle in.