America is relinquishing its position as global leader
TEL AVIV, ISRAEL >> In 2017, Donald “America First” Trump relinquished America’s 70-year role as global leader, a post already diminished by his two predecessors. Nowhere is the U.S. withdrawal more evident than in the Middle East.
Even in Israel, whose government lauds Trump for his strong support and recognition of Jerusalem as its capital, the president’s erratic behavior stirs caution. Trump’s admirers and detractors have both reached the same conclusion: The Mideast is entering a new era where Washington is no longer the major player.
And as the United States pulls back, Russia and Iran rush in (along with Turkey and even China). Their interests contradict America’s — and guarantee future problems for Washington, unless Trump reverses his retreat in 2018.
Nothing symbolizes this ongoing power shift better than Vladimir Putin’s triumphant visit to Syria on Dec. 11, followed by whirlwind visits to Cairo and Ankara. Putin’s victory lap stands in sharp contrast to the negative international fallout from Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem the previous week.
The message was clear: The new master of Syria, whose air force (along with Iranian ground forces) saved Assad, was demonstrating who was now in charge. The spoils include large and longterm Russian air and sea bases near the Mediterranean Sea.
“Now the feeling is that Putin is the king of Syria and the United States is in retreat,” I was told by former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon.
How can this be, you ask, when Trump was welcomed warmly in Jerusalem and lavishly in Saudi Arabia? In contrast to Obama’s muffing of red lines, Trump fired missiles at a Syrian base that used chemical weapons. He also sped up Obama’s war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
But, since then, Trump’s short attention span and unsteady performance has confused Mideast allies and cheered adversaries — just as it has done in Europe and Asia. His intense focus on personal relationships with autocrats — Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Sultan, and China’s Xi Jinping — has yet to deliver the rewards he seems to expect.
Having won a military “victory” over ISIS, Trump has shown little interest in a follow-on strategy to prevent a jihadi resurgence. Nor — despite his embrace of the Saudis — has he developed any clear strategy to contain Iran’s expansionism in the region.
But the president has shown himself willing to betray America’s Syrian and Iraqi Kurdish allies, who did much of the fighting against ISIS, in strong contrast to Putin, who stood firmly by his ally, Assad.
Such inconstancy — and Putin’s toughness — have been well-noted by America’s Sunni Arab friends. They sense which way the wind is blowing: Russia and Egypt have now agreed that the military aircraft of the two countries can share airspace and air bases — nearly five decades after Anwar Sadat kicked the Soviets out.
Meantime, Trump’s disdain for tough diplomacy, his insults to his secretary of state, his gutting of the diplomatic corps, and tweeting taunts that undercut his team have muddied policies from Europe to the Mideast to Asia.
Indeed, in the Mideast, far from displaying a mastery of big deals, the president has given away key bargaining chips gratis. In recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital without distinguishing between Arab and Jewish sectors, he handed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a huge win, while requiring nothing in return.
Israelis, Arabs, Kurds — all are trying to calculate how to operate in a new era where the United States is no longer the main player to turn to in a dicey region. And all are wondering (without much optimism) if American policy will rebound in 2018.