A preview of Sunday’s Oscars.
Who will win? Who should win?
In terms of shock value, last year’s Oscars envelope oopsie ranks as unsurpassable. That doesn’t mean this Sunday’s 90th Academy Awards will be a snoozer. Surprises could be tucked in here and there since no clear favorites have emerged in a few categories — including the big prize.
With that in mind, we’re putting on our guessing cap to predict the winners, and revealing the films and artists we think deserve to win. Get ready to disagree.
Animated film
NOMINEES >> “Boss Baby,” “The Breadwinner,” “Coco,” “Ferdinand,” “Loving Vincent”
WHAT WILL WIN >> Only three nominees deserve to be here — the somber “The Breadwinner,” the moving “Coco” and the painstakingly hand-illustrated “Loving Vincent.” But “Boss Baby”? You’re fired! Just head to the podium, Team Pixar, to grab your trophy for “Coco.”
“Coco.” It’s one of the Emeryville-based studio’s finest and that’s saying a lot.
Adapted screenplay
NOMINEES >> “Call Me by Your Name” (James Ivory); “The Disaster Artist” (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber); “Logan” (Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green); “Molly’s Game” (Aaron Sorkin); “Mudbound” (Virgil Williams and Dee Rees)
WHO WILL WIN >> This is a two-person race, with one way out in front. Sorkin, the master of tongue-twisting dialogue, might come up with a winning hand. But best to place your bets on Ivory, the 89-year-old veteran who’s shamefully never won an award even though he gave us cinematic jewels such as “Maurice,” “A Room With a View” and so
on. It’s time to remedy that.
WHO SHOULD WIN >> No question, the Berkeley-born Ivory. His facile adaptation of “Call Me by Your Name” — with that eloquent speech that an understanding dad delivers to his hurting son near the end — is one of the year’s cinematic bright spots. Of the others, “Logan” is the most deserving.
Original screenplay
NOMINEES >> “The Big Sick” (Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani); “Get Out” (Jordan Peele); “Lady Bird” (Greta Gerwig); “The Shape of Water” (Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor); “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (Martin McDonagh)
WHAT WILL WIN >> Such a tough one to call. “The Big Sick” isn’t “serious” enough for voters. Sad, that. “Lady Bird” might sneak in due to Gerwig’s perfect pitch and tone, but that seems ever more doubtful. “The Shape of Water” took a fish-out-ofwater romance and made it deep. Stands a good chance. “Billboards” threw up risks, but McDonagh’s edginess might bite him in the end. That means “Get Out,” a smart horror/social commentary hybrid that said so much about racism in America, will get at least one Oscar.
WHAT SHOULD WIN >> “Three Billboards.” Fueled by a fearless screenplay that pushed its characters and audiences beyond expectations, McDonagh’s dark comedy-drama was bold, original and had one of the best closing dialogue exchanges in years. Then there’s that letter penned by Harrelson’s character. Tremendous pieces of writing.
Supporting actress
NOMINEES >> Mary J. Blige
(“Mudbound”); Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”); Lesley Manville (“Phantom Thread”); Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”); Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”)
WHO WILL WIN >> Blige went for understatement and that worked. Manville’s watchful presence made “Thread’s” absurd final act more digestible. Spencer belted out another sassy performance filled with
exclamation points. None stand a chance. It’s a showdown between two mamas: Janney’s foul-mouthed, chain-smoking nightmare for Tonya Harding or Metcalf’s critical, long-suffering mama of a gotta-getoutta-here high school senior. Upshot: In-your-face performances win Oscars. This will be Janney’s year.
WHO SHOULD WIN >> Janney. That was one electrifying,
go-for-broke smackdown. I won’t ever forget it or her. It was scenery chewing without a doubt, but the role demanded it and Janney delivered.
Supporting actor
NOMINEES >> Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”); Woody Harrelson (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”); Richard Jenkins (“The Shape of Water”); Christopher Plummer
(“All the Money in the World”); Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)
WHO WILL WIN >> If MVP awards were being handed out, Plummer would be a shoo-in for stepping in and doing herculean reshoots to replace the fired Kevin Spacey. Jenkins was absolutely endearing as a gay roomie, but his was not an overly demanding part. Harrelson was perfection as a sheriff tangling with an angry mom of a slain girl. Doesn’t have enough screen time, though. Dafoe gave a subtle performance as a caring hotel manager and he has rarely been finer. But this award will go to the reliable Rockwell, the Daly City native who swaggered as a despicable cop who finds his deplorable ways challenged. Sorry, Willem, Oscar doesn’t take a shine to subtlety.
WHO SHOULD WIN >> Rockwell. He and Frances McDormand played off each other perfectly. His character is a tough one to pull off, and Rockwell makes him uncomfortably believable.
Best actress
NOMINEES >> Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”); Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”); Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”); Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”); Meryl Streep (“The Post”)
WHO WILL WIN >> Hawkins was incandescent as a mute woman who falls for an abused fish critter. Given the competition, she’ll be swimming upstream. Robbie gave a gonzo performance as Tonya Harding. Not her time — yet. Ronan tapped into the id, ego and everything else of a restless teen. But it’s a role that doesn’t normally collect Oscars. Streep gave a mannered, perhaps too mannered, performance as game-changing newspaper publisher Katharine Graham. No need to stop the presses over that one. It will be McDormand’s avenging mama bear in “Ebbing” that will put her on the Oscar map a second time.
WHO SHOULD WIN >> Consider this. Twenty years later, we’re still thinking about Minnesota cop Marge from “Fargo,” played by McDormand. Twenty years from now, I suspect we’ll still talk
about Missouri mom Mildred. Or at least her fashion choice.
Best actor
NOMINEES >> Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”); Timothée Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”); Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”); Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”); Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”)
WHO WILL WIN >> This is one of the weakest lineups in recent memory, with other performances (Jake Gyllenhaal in “Stronger”) having been overlooked. Cuckoo script developments undermined Day-Lewis’ fullbore thespian performance as a control freak of a man/ fashion designer. Kaluuya made everyone feel the spiraling dread of getting trapped in a white privilege nightmare. Chalamet was tortured and in love like few others we’ve seen on screen. And for Washington, it’s an open-and-shut case since too few actually saw his film. The winner will be Oldman, barely discernible in makeup as Winston Churchill. Does he deserve it? No. I couldn’t get over that was him as Churchill. But it’s a noble performance in a noble drama. Oscar relishes noble.
WHO SHOULD WIN >> Chalamet. His gangly interpretation of the love/lust tug of war and the emotions of first love that tangle us in knots was something the young actor let us experience intensely along with him.
Director
NOMINEES >> Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”); Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”); Jordan Peele (“Get Out”); Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”); Paul Thomas Anderson (“Phantom Thread”)
WHO WILL WIN >> This is del Toro’s year. He’s never won and his film is a gem. The spoiler might be Gerwig. Don’t count her out.
WHO SHOULD WIN >> Del Toro. On paper, “Shape of Water” sounds ludicrous and dreadful. On the screen it’s cinematic magic and that’s thanks to him.
Best picture
NOMINEES >> “Call Me by Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Phantom Thread,” “The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
WHAT WILL WIN >> This is running on longer than the telecast, so let’s get on with it. “Call Me by Your Name”? Too peachy. “Darkest Hour”? Too boring. “Dunkirk”? Too what time is it now? “Get Out”? Too real. “Lady Bird?” Too nostalgic. “Phantom Thread?” Too much. “The Post”? Too proud of itself. So that leaves us with two. There’s been enough of a backlash to “Billboards’” and its depiction of racism to give Oscar voters pause. “Shape of Water,” on the other hand, loves the movies and everyone voting is involved somehow in the industry. Which do you think is going to win? “Shape of Water” will be the best picture of the year.
WHAT SHOULD WIN >> “Billboards.” Provocative and daring, McDonagh’s dark comedy-drama wants to make us uncomfortable and it does. These are uneasy times in which we live, and McDonagh’s film taps into that.