Rating the N.L. Central
1. Chicago Cubs
Last year: 92-70, first place (lost to Dodgers in NLCS)
Key losses: Jake Arrieta, John Lackey, Wade Davis, Jon Jay, Hector Rondon, Alex Avila Key newcomers: Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow, Steve Cishek, Tyler Chatwood
Best-case scenario: Darvish flashes Cy Young form and becomes the ace of a talented staff, Morrow takes the next step to become an elite closer, and Javy Baez and Kyle Schwarber have breakout seasons.
Worst-case scenario: The unofficial swap of Arrieta for Darvish backfires, and the Cubs’ young core takes a step back.
Hot prospect: Right-hander Jen-Ho Tseng made two big league appearances last season. He could fill a role out of the bullpen or in the rotation if needed.
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Last year: 86-76, second place Key losses: Neil Walker, Anthony Swarzak, Lewis Brinson Key newcomers: Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Jhoulys Chacin Best-case scenario: The Brewers feature one of the best outfields in baseball and make a move to shore up the starting rotation. Worst-case scenario: The pitching comes up short, and the Ryan Braun contract proves immovable.
Hot prospect: Right-hander Brandon Woodruff made eight starts late last season.
3. St. Louis Cardinals
Last year: 83-79, third place Key losses: Lance Lynn, Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Seung-hwan Oh Key newcomers: Marcell Ozuna, Luke Gregerson, Miles Mikolas
Best-case scenario: Ozuna is the big bopper in the middle of the lineup, and Michael Wacha turns into a serviceable No. 2 behind a breakout year from Carlos Martinez.
Worst-case scenario: With no Lynn and a dwindling Adam Wainwright, the rotation falls off.
Hot prospect: Right-hander Alex Reyes could be a key piece in the bullpen or crack the rotation after having Tommy John surgery last year.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last year: 75-87, fourth place Key losses: Gerrit Cole, Andrew McCutchen, John Jaso
Key newcomers: Corey Dickerson, Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran Best-case scenario: Dickerson, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Josh Harrison and Josh Bell revive the offense. Worst-case scenario: After the changes, they still struggle to score runs. Hot prospect: Austin Meadows might crack the outfield. If Milwaukee’s pitching comes through, so may their outfield, featuring Ryan Braun. Big bopper Marcell Ozuna ads pop to the Cards. If the Reds falter, speedy outfielder Billy Hamilton could move on.
5. Cincinnati Reds
Last year: 68-94, fifth place Key losses: Zack Cozart, Scott Feldman, Drew Storen, Bronson Arroyo
Key newcomers: David Hernandez, Jared Hughes
Best-case scenario: The young nucleus of the club takes a step forward, and the Reds avoid another last-place finish.
Worst-case scenario: The Reds are forced to offload veterans such as Billy Hamilton, Eugenio Suarez and Homer Bailey. Hot prospect: Third baseman Nick Senzel has little left to prove in minors.