STAY TUNED
Governor’s race heats up with new TV ads and some creative strategies
Welcome to the political ad season. As California counts down the days to the June 5 primary election, several of the candidates for governor and their supporters have started to blanket Golden State airwaves. But will they make an impact on voters or just leave them annoyed with the constant interruptions?
We asked a panel of six California political strategists and experts — none of whom are working for any of the campaigns — to grade TV ads from Democrats Gavin Newsom, Antonio Villaraigosa and John Chiang as well as from an independent group backing Republican businessman John Cox. The ads range from feel-good introductions featuring candidates hugging kids to salacious attack ads fueled with sexual innuendo. Several of the spots make claims that are false or misleading.
Powerful ads can change a campaign, while dull spots just get on voters’ nerves. The pundits scored each commercial on a 10-point scale, and we’ve included their average score and a few of their comments.
‘First’ (Gavin Newsom)
Script: Narrator: “The L.A. Times called Gavin Newsom ‘ahead of the pack, from gay marriage to gun control.’ The first mayor to recognize marriage equality, the first to provide health care to every resident, the first to take on the National Rifle Association and win. The one candidate with the record of bold leadership and bold results. It’s why Kamala Harris, teachers, nurses and firefighters support Gavin Newsom for governor. Courage, for a change.”
Is it accurate? It’s true that Newsom made strides on same-sex marriage and universal health care as mayor of San Francisco, but the ad’s claim that he was “the first to take on the National Rifle Association and win” doesn’t hold water. Other mayors before him, both in San Francisco and elsewhere, notched victories against the NRA before he did. Current Sen. Dianne Feinstein, for example, defeated an NRAbacked recall attempt against her after her support for gun control measures when she led the City by the Bay, and other California politicians passed gun control measures before Newsom did.
The lieutenant governor’s campaign has argued that that claim referred specifically to the gun control ballot measure that Newsom championed in 2016. But the ad doesn’t say that. Several other Newsom ads have touted the same record more accurately than this one, saying that he “took on the gun lobby and won” without calling him the first to do so. Panel grade: 8 /10
“Effectively weaves together his image with the holy trinity of progressive issues in marriage equality, universal health care and gun control.” — Thad Kousser, UC San Diego politics professor.
‘Three Buses’ (Antonio Villaraigosa)
Script: Villaraigosa: “In kindergarten, my sister and I took three buses to get to school. As mayor, I remembered that, and despite the recession we built more new schools and rail lines than any city in America, added 200,000 living wage jobs, built 20,000 units of affordable housing, and nearly doubled graduation rates. I know how far a bus can take you. As governor, the life story that will mean the most to me is yours.”
Is it accurate? Villaraigosa was Los Angeles mayor from July 2005 to July 2013, and his claims about school and transit construction, living wage jobs and housing mostly check out. The city “developed and preserved” 21,012 affordable housing units by December 2012, according to a publication from the mayor’s office at the time. The city’s school-building program predated his administration, although he helped fund it as speaker of the State Assembly, when he passed a record $9.2 billion school bond in 1998.
The claim that he “nearly doubled graduation rates” is a little more complicated. Villaraigosa didn’t run most city schools but did exert influence through the school board. During his time as mayor, the Los Angeles Unified School District graduation rate rose from 48 percent in the 2005-06 school year, according to a UC Santa Barbara study, to 70.2 percent in the 2013-14 school year, according to district data. That represents a growth of about 46 percent, not “nearly double.” Villaraigosa’s campaign noted that the rate was 44 percent in 2003, according to another study, and rose to 77.3 percent by 2016 — a growth of 76 percent over that longer time frame. And struggling city schools run by a nonprofit Villaraigosa launched saw their graduation rates more than double between 2007 and 2016, according to the group. Panel grade: 8.5 /10
“Pretty and well-paced … makes him relatable and gives voters a sense of his values.” — Katie Merrill, Democratic strategist
‘Quiet Storm’ (John Chiang)
Script: Newscaster: “The eighth largest economy in the world is about to go bust. California is about to run out of money.” Chiang: “Some thought we were done. But I knew better. I made the tough calls and brought California back from the brink of financial disaster. Because you trusted me to manage our economy. And I took on Wells Fargo when they ripped off working families. And now the doubters say we can’t pass a progressive vision on health care, affordable housing and education. I say, ‘We got this.’ ”
Is it accurate? As state controller during California’s 2008-12 budget crisis, Chiang helped preserve the state’s credit rating by delaying some payments and issuing IOUs, according to his office. But this ad’s claim that he “brought California back from the brink of financial disaster” could be seen as overstating his role. Many experts credit Gov. Jerry Brown and the budgets he pushed through for turning around the state’s finances. The ad also cites Chiang’s move in 2011 to deny legislators their pay after they passed a budget he considered unbalanced — although courts later ruled he had overstepped his authority.
Chiang did face off with former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2008, refusing to carry out the ex-Terminator’s push for a massive state worker pay cut and fighting him in court. More recently, as state treasurer, Chiang has sanctioned Wells Fargo over its fake accounts scandal and pressured the bank to remove directors from its board. Panel grade: 4.5 /10
“I don’t think it’s an effective look to have Chiang stand there while his voice is in the background, and the lack of a changing scene is dull in comparison to the others.” — Melissa Michelson, Menlo College politics professor
‘California Deserves Better’ (pro-John Cox independent committee)
Script: Narrator: “Powerful men are finally being held to account, punished for inappropriate sexual conduct with women over whom they exercise power. Gavin Newsom had such a sexual relationship with a woman on his mayoral staff. Antonio Villaraigosa did the same with a reporter assigned to cover him. Newsom and Villaraigosa think the rules shouldn’t apply to them. They don’t want punishment — they want a promotion. Californians deserve better. John Cox for governor.”
Is it accurate? While both Newsom and Villaraigosa admitted to having extramarital affairs during their stints as mayor, their actions don’t compare with the photos of the men shown in the ad — including Hollywood mogul Harvey Weinstein, who is accused of rape, sexual assault and harassment by 85 women, and TV anchor Charlie Rose, who is accused of unwanted sexual advances and groping by at least eight women. Both Newsom and Villaraigosa’s affairs were consensual. (Both also have publicly apologized, most recently at this week’s debate in San Jose.)
Ruby Rippey-Tourk, the appointments secretary whom Newsom had an affair with, has publicly objected to comparisons connecting her experience with the #MeToo movement, writing on Facebook earlier this year that “I was a subordinate, but I was also a free-thinking, 33-yr old adult married woman & mother.” And the ad’s description of “women over whom they exercise power” doesn’t apply at all to Villaraigosa’s relationship with Telemundo reporter Mirthala Salinas, who was not his employee. Panel grade: 5 /10
“Outstanding use of the #MeToo issue to catch voters’ attention, but targeting both candidates blurs the message.” — Dan Schnur, former Republican strategist
Expert panel: Thad Kousser, UC San Diego professor; Katie Merrill, Democratic strategist; Melissa Michelson, Menlo College professor; Matt Rexroad, Republican strategist; Dan Schnur, former Republican strategist; Bill Whalen, Hoover Institution fellow and former Republican strategist.