Belt now clearing stardom hurdles
Analytics say he’s the best National League has to offer
HOUSTON >> If there were a natural hiding spot for an elite hitter to remain a well-kept secret, playing first base for the San Francisco Giants is the perfect post to take cover.
Start with the position.
The National League is loaded with name-brand talent at first base. Joey Votto is a five-time All-Star and the face of the franchise in Cincinnati. Paul Goldschmidt has finished in the top-three of NL MVP voting three times in the last five years. Cody Bellinger is the reigning Rookie of the Year and a star in one of baseball’s biggest markets.
Five other NL first basemen — including the Padres’ $144 million man, Eric Hosmer — have also been named to All-Star teams before.
Then consider the franchise: The Giants own three World Series titles this decade, thanks in large part to a vaunted pitching staff led by current ace Madison Bumgarner and a remarkable run of excellence from catcher and 2012 NL MVP Buster Posey.
Baseball fans around the world look at the Giants and see a roster composed of Gold Glovers and past AllStars, even if many of the most recognizable faces are nearly past their prime.
Examining the ballpark is a worthwhile endeavor,
too. AT&T Park is a pitcher’s paradise, and unless your middle name is Lamar, the stadium wasn’t designed with the talents of a left-handed hitter in mind.
Nearly every factor is working against Brandon Belt becoming a star. Yet 48 games into the 2018 season, he’s the most valuable hitter in the National League.
Belt isn’t just on pace to earn his second career AllStar nod. He’s outperforming every player in his division and is thriving as the unlikely offensive catalyst leading the NL West’s best offense.
“I think this is the best year I’ve had so far,” Belt said. “I think this is what I felt like I could always do. It’s just a matter of being consistent with it and I’ve got to continue to do the same thing.”
At age 30, a slight adjustment to Belt’s swing has keyed an offensive breakthrough.
Over the offseason, Belt evaluated video from the best year of his career, 2016, and determined he needed to lower his hands if he wanted his swing to be quicker through the zone.
The results have placed the rest of baseball on notice.
“This is what I thought I was going to be able to do before the season started,” Belt said. “Just a lot of experience and stuff and the physical part is kind of meeting up this year and I feel like I can keep going.”
Belt isn’t leading the National League in home runs, RBIs, batting average or on-base percentage. But the analytics say he’s the best the league has to offer.
His 175 WRC+, a measurement that adjusts the statistic of runs created for park effects, leads all NL hitters. A league-average WRC+ is 100.
His 1.006 OPS ranks second only to Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant’s 1.010 and his wOBA of .424, a stat that contextualizes a hitter’s offensive value, is two-tenths of a point behind Bryant’s league-best
mark. A .400 wOBA is considered “excellent.”
“Brandon has just really picked up his play this year,” manager Bruce Bochy said. “You could see it in spring training. I just thought between attitude and the little adjustment he’s made in his swing, he’s really become a force.”
Belt’s 2.4 wins above replacement — perhaps the most effective stat used to determine a player’s value — is the best in the National League and a full 0.7 points ahead of Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’s a smidgen in front of Diamondbacks center fielder A.J. Pollock’s 2.3 mark, but Pollock won’t have a chance to catch Belt in the near future due to a recently fractured wrist.
Should Belt continue to light up opponents with offensive fireworks, a national spotlight will eventually locate him.
Belt must maintain a narrow edge on Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman on statistical leaderboards to increase his odds of securing his first starting AllStar nod and as the season rolls on, he’ll need to prove he has the durability to continue lifting the ball through a thick San Francisco marine layer.
His teammates believe he can.
“Getting on base and driving the ball obviously with a lot of home runs recently,” shortstop Brandon Crawford said. “That’s what we want and need out of him. I think he’s probably one of the more underrated players in baseball.”
With nearly 50 games in the books, Belt is the Giants’ best player, the league’s most productive first baseman and according to many metrics, its most valuable hitter.
Underrated is a label that can only last for so long.