Poll: Hirokawa edging closer to Smith in sheriff’s race
531 likely voters show 26-16 edge for five-time sheriff, though a huge number of voters remained undecided
As the June 5 primary approaches, former Santa Clara County Undersheriff John Hirokawa shows a modest gain of support in his bid to replace fiveterm Sheriff Laurie Smith, particularly among voters who already turned in their ballots, according to a new KPIX/SurveyUSA poll.
The poll released this week comes amid a new county civil grand jury report on the state of the jails that found chronic low morale among jail deputies since the 2015 murder of mentally ill inmate Michael Tyree by three of their colleagues. Even so, the grand jury recommended that the full operations of the beleaguered jail system be transferred to the sheriff.
Currently, the Sheriff’s Office oversees custody operations — jail deputies and correctional officers — while a county-run Department of Correction handles administrative and logistic functions like food and laundry services. The civil grand jury described the arrangement as needlessly confusing.
The KPIX-commissioned poll of 531 likely voters contacted between May 14 and 19 shows Smith leading Hirokawa 26 percent to 16 percent. Both of those numbers represent gains from a poll released last week by the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and this news organization, which had Smith leading Hirokawa 24 percent to 12 percent.
“The voters in Santa Clara County are very intelligent. They know what to look for,” Smith said in a statement. “They’ve made the right choice in the past, and I believe they will do so again.”
Both polls showed that a huge number of polled voters remain undecided on the race: In the KPIX poll, 43 percent did not declare a preference. But a break-
down of those polled revealed that 35 percent of those who said they already turned in a mail-in ballot supported Smith, with Hirokawa not far behind at 31 percent in that category.
It’s a glimmer for Hirokawa’s campaign that might disappear by Election Day: Of the 88 percent of likely voters who had not turned in a ballot, Smith was favored over Hirokawa by 25 to 14 percent.
A candidate would have to earn over 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff in November. Smith has not been pushed to a runoff since her first election in an open race in 1998.
Jeffrey Cardenas, Hirokawa’s campaign manager, was cautious of drawing too much from the polling but said the figures reflected unease about electing Smith for an unprecedented sixth term. Smith is the longest-serving sheriff in county history and the state’s first woman to hold the rank.
“As people make their decisions, they overwhelmingly break for John,” Cardenas said. “We’ve gotten more positive response and a desire for change.”
The other three candidates fared as follows: retired Sheriff’s Lt. Jose Salcido garnered 11 percent, Deputy Joe La Jeunesse tracked at 3 percent, and retired San Jose police sergeant Martin Monica polled at 2 percent.
Those marked sharp fluctuations for La Jeunesse and Salcido from the Bay Area News Group poll, which had them earning 7 percent and 5 percent, respectively.
The release of the civil grand jury report on the county jails is timely given how many voters who closely follow the sheriff’s race see the election as a referendum on how Smith and the Sheriff’s Office responded to Tyree’s murder. A blue-ribbon commission made hundreds of reform recommendations, including severing the jails from the Sheriff’s Office while the Board of Supervisors established
an independent monitor to audit the agency’s patrol and jail operations.
The report aligned with a Board of Supervisors commissioned study from CGL Companies in March that found there were “no specific operational benefits” in the Sheriff’s Office and Department of Correction sharing custody management. A parallel sheriff commissioned study by retired Boise, Idaho, Sheriff Gary Raney lauded Smith for her reform efforts, but her challengers and Supervisor Joe Simitian questioned the report’s usefulness.
Supervisors moved to end the ambiguity by giving total control of the jails to the Sheriff’s Office while allowing the Department of Correction to remain as a board liaison to jail operations. The undersheriff currently doubles as chief of correction — Hirokawa’s last role before he retired. The grand jury report suggested that the independent monitor — who is in the midst of being hired — might take over that role.
“The message that I got, and from the blue-ribbon commission, is they’re looking for a different sheriff to lead those reforms,” he said.
Smith also supported the
call to streamline jail supervision, and jabbed at Hirokawa, whose campaign has worked to distance him from his former boss.
“We experienced the detrimental effects split leadership can have on operations when the reforms stalled under the previous chief of correction,” Smith said. “Over the last two years, I have demonstrated my ability to personally work with numerous stakeholders to swiftly implement the vision laid out in my jail reform plan.”
La Jeunesse said new leadership has to come from outside the administration, Hirokawa included.
“If they knew what they were doing, all these scandals and the murder of Mr. Tyree would not have happened,” he said.
The correctional officers’ union, however, is endorsing Smith. Union president Amy Le supports leadership from a top commander whose sole responsibility is the jails.
“The authority should be one person who’s not taking care of both the enforcement side and the corrections side,” Le said.
Another major component of the civil grand jury report addressed low morale among correctional
deputies spurred by understaffing, mandatory overtime, 12-hour shifts, and years of rapid reforms. The union credited the Sheriff’s Office for making strides in shoring up staffing gaps.
“We support the reform, but my staff needs sufficient time off,” Le said. “(Mandatory overtime) is a hardship, especially for parents. People are getting burned out.”
About the poll: The poll of 531 registered voters in Santa Clara County was conducted by SurveyUSA for KPIX. The poll, conducted from May 14 to 19, has a margin of error of +/5.3 percentage points.