Missing out on Tavares not end of the world
SAN JOSE >> Give Doug Wilson and the Sharks some credit. They literally came within a pen stroke of achieving what only the Detroit Red Wings have managed to do over the last 30 years: undergo a heart transplant while remaining perennial contenders for the Stanley Cup.
If John Tavares had chosen the Sharks over his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs in unrestricted free agency Sunday, the Sharks would have reset their clock by a decade, passing the torch from Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau to a new wave of high-impact players. They also would have been instant favorites to win the Stanley Cup next season.
Instead, the Sharks are back where they’ve spent most of the last decade. They’re a good team, a playoff team, but not a great team. The Sharks are still missing that little extra something that separates the champions from the contenders.
Here’s a few thoughts on this year’s free agency frenzy and what the landscape looks like moving forward:
THE SHARKS ARE FACING SOME BLOWBACK FOR COMING OUT OF JULY 1 COMPLETELY EMPTYHANDED >> The thinking here goes like this: Wilson put all of his eggs in Tavares’ basket without devising a solid plan B. He allowed Tavares to string him along until the end. By the time he signed with the Maple Leafs, the Sharks had missed out on the rest of the field.
The problem with this logic is that Wilson didn’t unload Mikkel Boedker’s contract and buy out Paul Martin to create the cap space for the purpose of pursuing any old free agent this summer. He did it to specifically court Tavares, a future Hall of Famer who would have actually been capable of filling Thornton’s skates down the road.
The Sharks didn’t miss out on anyone Sunday because they were never going to commit $18.75 million to a 35-year old Ilya Kovalchuk, pay a 29-year old James van Riemsdyk $35 million for five years or devote $19.5 million to a 32-year old Paul Stastny. With nearly $36 million per year tied up in Brent Burns, Logan Couture, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Evander Kane and Martin Jones, the Sharks can’t afford to sign another high-salaried player that they aren’t headover-heels in love with.
Wilson cleared out cap space to acquire a “difference maker”
who works for “now and into the future.” In a league where top talent seldom hits the open market, Tavares was the only player on the free agency board who fit this description.
WILSON FOUND HIMSELF IN A SIMILAR POSITION LAST SUMMER >> After Patrick Marleau inked an $18.75 million contract with the Maple Leafs, critics wanted Wilson to find an immediate replacement for Marleau and blasted him when he allowed the team to enter training camp without significant changes to the roster.
The Sharks held out and eventually found the thoroughbred talent they wanted in Kane at the trade deadline.
There’s a lesson to be learned here: if you panic and overpay for a player, such as van Riemsdyk, as a response to missing out on Tavares, you could be handcuffed when the guy you actually want becomes available on the trade market. Now, with more than $8 million in cap space, the Sharks can be players in anything that surfaces this winter.
Be deliberate. Don’t let the blowing winds dictate choices with long-term consequences.
LOSING OUT ON TAVARES MIGHT PROVE TO BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE >> According to reports out of Canada, the Sharks offered Tavares north of $13 million per year to come to Silicon Valley. In the short term, the Sharks would have had their best shot to date of bringing the Stanley Cup to Northern California with Tavares. But if this is true, as the contract progressed it would have been difficult to acquire and maintain the type of depth talent needed
to sustain success in the NHL.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are lucky that Sidney Crosby understands cap science. He’s willing to accept $8.7 million per year, and it’s allowed the Penguins to surround him with the talents they needed to win two of the last three Stanley Cups.
Connor McDavid, on the other hand, is making $12.5 million per year with the Edmonton Oilers. It’s going to be hard to get him the depth he needs to win.
LET’S GET REAL >> Now that
we’ve contemplated the half-full perspectives, let’s empty out the glass and pour the water down the drain. In truth, acquiring a difference maker on the trade market is going to be challenging.
Shortly after Tavares signed with the Maple Leafs, the St. Louis Blues swung a deal to acquire Ryan O’Reilly, one of the league’s best two-way forwards, from the Buffalo Sabres. To do so, they gave up a first-round pick, a second-round pick, a top prospect and two roster players.
It better work out. Last year, the Ottawa Senators gave six pieces to the Colorado Avalanche to win the Matt Duchene sweepstakes. Then the Senators quickly went from being one goal away from reaching the Stanley Cup Final to missing the playoffs altogether. Now, they’re in rebuild mode.
On paper, O’Reilly and Duchene both fit the description of what the Sharks are shopping for. Still, they steer clear of making these types of trades. The price is just
too steep.
In the Kane trade, Wilson exploited a market inefficiency related to the 26-year old’s reputation, acquiring an elite-level talent at a basement-bargain price. No one can guarantee that a similar deal will present itself this winter.
The Sharks might be stuck with what they have on the roster this season, a scenario that Wilson seems willing to accept. AS THE SHARKS STOOD IN PLACE LAST WEEKEND, THE PACIFIC DIVISION GOT TOUGHER >> The Vegas Golden Knights shored up their center alignment by bringing in Stastny. The Los Angeles Kings added scoring by signing Kovalchuk. The Calgary Flames shook up their roster, landing Noah Hanifin in a package for Dougie Hamilton, while signing James Neal and Derek Ryan. The Arizona Coyotes inked Michael Grabner and extended Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and the Anaheim Ducks, Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks all made some changes around the edges.
As usual, the playoff race will be a dogfight this winter.
Wilson believes the Sharks will be an improved team in 201819 just by virtue of having Kane and a healthy Thornton on the roster together for the first time. He might be right. Time will tell.
On the flip side, Thornton is 39 and coming off major surgeries in both knees. No one really knows what to expect from him this season.
Here’s what we do know: the Pacific Division will be competitive, the Sharks will be in the mix and they have the flexibility to make a move if the right deal materializes.
What happens beyond that is anyone’s guess.