Future tied to Bumgarner
It’s decision time for the Giants in regards to their lefty ace
SAN FRANCISCO >> At 6-foot-4 and 242 pounds, he’s a forceful, feared creature who has cultivated a reputation as one of the most dominant pitchers of the last decade.
But with each time he emerges in his natural habitat, Madison Bumgarner is more than just the sturdy left-handed ace tasked with turning an opponent into prey.
He’s an elephant in the room known as AT&T Park.
Since the free agency era began
in 1976, only one other lefthanded starter, Clayton Kershaw, has compiled a lower ERA in his first decade than the 3.00 mark belonging to Bumgarner. Though he’s still more than a year away from hitting the open market, Bumgarner and his long-term future are coming into focus because of the Giants’ extended struggles.
Rebuild or remodel? Tear it all down or patch it back together? It’s a question that threatens to loom over the San Francisco Giants this offseason, and a determination that hinges on how the franchise
views Bumgarner’s future.
Reality sets in
When Bumgarner took the mound Tuesday at AT&T Park, he became just the fifth pitcher this season to throw seven shutout innings against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros.
Though Bumgarner showed what he’s still capable of, his team did too as the Giants blew a 1-0 lead, fell to 57-58 and dropped 6.5 games out with 47 left to play.
“We’ve been counted out plenty of times since I’ve been here,” Bumgarner said. “But we’ve turned it around. I can’t remember a time we were the favorites.”
With general manager Bobby Evans, vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean and manager Bruce Bochy heading into the final years of their contracts in 2019, pressure continues to mount on three key decision-makers expected to reverse disturbing trends and help the club back to the postseason.
The triumvirate leading on-field and off-the-field decisions aren’t the only members of the Giants who can hear the clock ticking. Thanks to a contract that expires at the end of next season, Bumgarner’s future is just as uncertain.
Elite or above average?
Heroes never die in the baseball world, and in October 2014, Bumgarner became immortal.
Four years after authoring the most sensational postseason pitching performance in Giants history, Bumgarner’s left shoulder has been separated and his left hand fractured. His fastball velocity is down, and this year, his walk rate is up.
A quick gander at his numbers suggest Bumgarner remains elite. His 2.69 ERA this year would be the lowest of his career if he had enough innings to qualify for an ERA title. But digging deeper into Bumgarner’s 2018 season reveals rather inconvenient truths, even if the sample size is small.
The Giants ace is walking a career-high 3.7 batters per nine innings and his strikeout rate of 7.7 batters per nine innings is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season. Bumgarner’s 1.249 WHIP is his worst mark since 2010.
And while his average fastball velocity is hovering just under 92 mph, opponents are hitting .288
against the pitch. As baseball evolves and velocity proves increasingly important, Bumgarner is throwing the greatest percentage of offspeed pitches of his career and inducing whiffs on a career-low 4.76 percent of his four-seam fastballs.
Is Bumgarner built to remain one of the game’s best arms well into his 30s? As Bumgarner approaches the end of his contract, the Giants are carefully considering that question.
The contract awaits
Of the 74 $100 million contracts awarded in baseball history, 23 have been signed by pitchers, including six since 2016. While Bumgarner’s regular-season numbers don’t match those of Kershaw, who signed a $215 million deal before the 2014 season, the Giants starter could command at least a five-year deal worth north of $30 million annually when he hits the market at 30 years old.
Heralded starting pitchers who sign rich contracts have a checkered history of latecareer injuries, and the Giants know it all too well. The three pitchers they’ve signed to $100 million-plus contracts are Matt Cain, Barry Zito and Johnny Cueto.
Any team willing to sign Bumgarner will consider the toll injuries to his pitching shoulder and hand have taken over the last two years, but the left-hander says he’s not showing any wear and tear.
“When you say somebody hurt their left shoulder or
pitching hand, I understand that,” Bumgarner said. “But I never felt that.”
Should the Giants finish under .500 for the second straight season, the front office has an emergency switch it can flip if the franchise wants to hasten a rebuild. Even if parting with Bumgarner through a trade would be perceived as a betrayal by substantial portions of the fan base, it would alleviate a concern to outbid all other clubs when he hits free agency.
An intertwined future
For a franchise that became accustomed to winning, the Giants are on the brink of needing to implement change due to an extensive period of losing.
Should the Giants ignore the troubles past high-dollar contracts have caused them and recommit to building around a pitcher entering his second decade in the majors? Or should the front office disregard Bumgarner’s past achievements and break recent precedent in hopes a new core can lead the Giants to a land where Bumgarner’s legend first took shape?
Regardless of whether the Giants commit to making Bumgarner a Giant for life, allow him to walk in free agency or trade him to facilitate a rebuild, the decision ultimately will shape the direction and future of the franchise.
Because before the Giants determine how they plan to achieve future success, they must decide whether that future includes Bumgarner.