AFC power rankings
1. NEW ENGLAND
Last season’s record: 13-3 Maybe we should have seen the end coming against the Eagles after the New England defense was 29th in yards allowed but fifth in points allowed. Ten starters return from that defense. Get a good team in position to score often enough, and it’s trouble. Still, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady remain atop the AFC until they are unseated.
2. PITTSBURGH
Last season’s record: 13-3
As long as the triplets (Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown) are in the mix, the Steelers should be in the playoffs. Pittsburgh is mostly playing a pat hand, with 10 offensive starters and nine defensive starters returning. The Steelers can take charge early as five of their first eight games are within the division.
3. KANSAS CITY
Last season’s record: 10-6 Another year, another first-round playoff exit. And now, another quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, who has a big arm and a gambler’s mentality after the measured, moderate approach from Alex Smith. If Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill remain legitimate game-breakers, Mahomes could flourish immediately. Defensively, the Chiefs need a return to form from edge rusher Justin Houston.
4. JACKSONVILLE
Last season’s record: 10-6
The Jaguars can be had against the run on occasion, but last season was the epitome of a fast, sideline-to-sideline modern NFL defense. Jacksonville can get after the passer and cover receivers, and there’s no reason that should change. Whether Blake Bortles is the quarterback to win a playoff game is another matter. Leonard Fournette offers Bortles decent down-and-distance.
5. L.A. CHARGERS
Last season’s record: 9-7
Typical Chargers, they already lost promising tight end Hunter Henry to injury. But it was not typical the way Los Angeles played down the stretch to finish the season with a winning record. Quarterback Philip Rivers can still spray the ball all over the field. The Chargers were poor against the run, but Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are top outside rushers.
6. TENNESSEE
Last season’s record: 9-7
A wild-card win over the Chiefs wasn’t enough to save Mike Mularkey, who was replaced by Mike Vrabel. Vrabel will surely look to Belichickian philosophies, given his background as a Patriots player. Tennessee is strong against the run, susceptible to the pass, and it remains to be seen if Marcus Mariota will ever be consistent enough as a pure passer to be an elite quarterback.
7. BALTIMORE
Last season’s record: 9-7
Joe Flacco has been pretty much a horizontal passer since being a Super Bowl champion, averaging 5.7 yards per attempt last year. We’ll see how creative offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg is at working in Lamar Jackson, a firstround pick who at the least could provide a run-pass option to spice up the offense. All starters return from a solid defense that ranked sixth in fewest points allowed.
8. RAIDERS
Last season’s record: 6-10
Early indications are the Raiders will be a much more organized and prepared team on both sides of the ball. If the crash course in Jon Gruden football gets Derek Carr back on track immediately, the Raiders could return to the playoffs. Defensively, much rests with an improved all-around pass rush and whether the new cornerbacks can cover.
9. DENVER
Last season’s record: 5-11
John Elway is gambling that Case Keenum is not a one-year wonder and can get the Broncos in the end zone often enough for a still formidable defense to do the rest. If Devontae Booker can become a lead runner, it helps. Ten starters return on defense minus Aqib Talib, including Hall of Fame-caliber outside linebacker Von Miller.
10. INDIANAPOLIS
Last season’s record: 4-12 Everything hinges on Andrew Luck’s throwing arm and putting a team around him that can help him stay healthy. A common sense start — taking Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson in the first round to upgrade the offensive line. Frank Reich is a quarterback-centric first-year head coach, but there is still much work to be done.
11. CINCINNATI
Last season’s record: 7-9
No sense in worrying about a hot seat when it comes to Bengals coach Marvin Lewis. The man turns out competitive but undisciplined teams year after year that occasionally make the playoffs and then lose, and that’s good enough for owner Brown. More of the same this seasons as quarterback Andy Dalton remains above average, wide receiver A.J. Green is a dangerous target, and the Bengals will have their usual strong defensive front.
12. BUFFALO
Last season’s record: 9-7
The Bills wanted to upgrade at quarterback, and their solution was to sign AJ McCarron, who has the look of a career backup, and firstround pick Josh Allen, who has a big arm but was a polarizing prospect in the eyes of NFL scouts. The defense gave too much ground against the run and signed Star Lotuleilei to plug the gap, but nine starters return from the No. 26 unit in the NFL.
13. HOUSTON
Last season’s record: 4-12
Deshaun Watson surpassed all expectations as a rookie quarterback before being injured, and then the Texans also lost J.J. Watt (again) to a broken leg. If Watson is as good as he looked, and Watt is truly healthy, those two players alone get this team to the realm of .500. Of course, neither player is a lock to do that. Having a worthy lead runner (Lamar Miller averaged 3.7 per carry) would do Watson a world of good.
14. MIAMI
Last season’s record: 6-10
Pulling Jay Cutler off the couch a year ago didn’t cut it, so coach Adam Gase can only hope the progress Ryan Tannehill seemed to make two years ago can carry on. The Dolphins parted with Ndamukong Suh, brought in ancient Frank Gore to upgrade the 29thranked rushing attack, and there’s little in their off-season to suggest anything other than double-digit losses.
15. N.Y. JETS
Last season’s record: 5-11
In Josh McCown, the Jets have a quarterback with the perfect temperament to step aside when first-round pick Sam Darnold is ready. That probably won’t be long, given how the Jets will struggle. The Jets were actually OK at home last season, finishing 4-4, but a 1-7 disaster on the road. A win against the Patriots, to whom they’ve lost 12 of the last 14, would do wonders.
16. CLEVELAND
Last season’s record: 0-16
Strange that an 0-16 season seemed almost under-the-radar, probably because the Browns have been bad for so long that it didn’t surprise anybody. Hue Jackson gives it another go, this time with John Dorsey as his general manager. Dorsey promptly selected Baker Mayfield at No. 1, and Mayfield could go either way. Bad news for Mayfield — Browns wideouts scored seven touchdowns.