WHAT CAN WE DO TO SAVE CIOPPINO?
The famed San Francisco fish stew is one of many beloved dishes that will likely feel the stresses of a warming planet. Here’s how:
On the eve of the Global Climate Action Summit, thousands of people are converging in San Francisco to save melting icebergs, endangered wildlife and drowning cities.
But imagine, if you can, a life with less cioppino.
Created in the late 1800s by Italian immigrants in San Francisco’s North Beach neighborhood, the famed fish stew is one of many beloved foods — ranging from wine to sourdough bread — that’s likely to feel the stresses of climate change, researchers say. While the fate of one dish is far from a threat to humankind, it illustrates the far-reaching impact of something much bigger.
“Climate change will have profound effects on our global food systems on all levels,” said Alex Halliday, director of Columbia University’s Earth Institute. “It threatens our ability to produce food causing disruptions in prices, quality and earnings.”
The Golden Gate Restaurant Association reports that restau-
rants already are facing challenges with seafood and crop availability. “Just two years ago the water temperature led to issues with the start of crab season,” said director Gwyneth Borden, “and scientists suggest that climate change can lead to crops being less nutritional, which doesn’t even address the impact of taste.”
To draw attention to the plight, about 60 Bay Area restaurants — including such favorites as San Francisco’s Tartine Bakery, Healdsburg’s Shed and all Bay Area locations of Sweetgreen and Onigilly — are going carbon neutral for “Zero Foodprint Dining Week” through a combination of practical changes and financial contributions.
The fate of recipes will vary, because each ingredient responds differently to the many influences of climate change, according to Tapan B. Pathak of UC Merced’s Division of Agricultural and Natural Resources.
“Increases in temperature, higher variability in precipitation trends, increased
frequency and intensity of extreme events such as drought, heat waves, and floods are expected to impact agriculture in California,” said Pathak, whose research on the impact of climate on California’s $50 million agricultural market recently was published in the journal Agronomy.
If we reduce greenhouse gas emissions, scientists say, there’s still time to limit the risk to our foods.
But if we don’t, here’s what could happen to our fine meal of cioppino, ingredient by ingredient:
Seafood
Climate change could alter the ocean food chains, leading to far fewer fish and shellfish in the seas, according to Jefferson Keith Moore, professor of earth system science at UC Irvine. That’s because nutrients such as plankton will move from warm surface waters down into the cooler deep ocean. As fish become nutrient-starved, he said, the global catch could be reduced 20 percent by 2300 and by nearly 60 percent across North America, affecting the diets of millions of people.
Many species of crab, flounder, lobster and
mackerel already are migrating to find cooler water, according to research from Rutgers University. This could spark conflict among nations, due to newly shared fisheries.
Tomatoes
Rising carbon dioxide levels affect a plant’s metabolism and may boost the growth and vigor of tomato plants.
But this benefit will be offset by the risks imposed by a more hostile climate. Hotter temperatures can reduce yield in fruits and vegetables by lowering photosynthesis, increasing respiration and causing reproductive failure, such as “split sets” — that disappointing discovery of a ripe tomato that is cracked or broken open
When temperatures climb above 90 degrees, tomato pollen loses its viability; blossoms drop. Blooms also are affected when nighttime doesn’t cool. Fruit can be damaged by sunburn.
Keeping a plant safe from blight could become a constant battle of grooming and root-watering.
Onion, garlic, basil and pepper
Like tomatoes, these
other key ingredients will face diminished yields due to generally warmer temperatures and more frequent and severe heat waves, say scientists. Additionally, plant diseases and pests will move into regions where there haven’t been problems before.
Planting patterns of onion and garlic could shift because it likely will get hotter in the south and the Central Valley and warmer in the now-cool north and coastal regions, according to California’s Department of Food and Agriculture.
Farmers will need to switch to crops that are more heat tolerant for summer production. They also should consider changing planting dates: By planting earlier in the spring or later in the summer, they can avoid the hottest growing periods and maintain yields, according to research at the National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment in Ames, Iowa.
When exposed to higher carbon dioxide levels, basil plants show an increase in symptoms of the deadly black spot disease.
That dash of freshground black pepper that
enlivens the broth? It’s in trouble, too. “The king of spices,” a native of India, is a rain-fed crop; faced with recent droughts, Indian scientists have started new breeding programs and improved horticultural techniques to boost pepper’s resiliency.
Sourdough bread
Rising temperatures could hurt wheat production, scientists agree. A global temperature increase of 1 degree Celsius would lead to a worldwide decline in wheat yield by between 4.1 and 6.4 percent, according to a 2016 study in the journal Nature Climate Change.
While rising carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere could in turn enhance the growth of wheat, they also make it less nutritious by significantly reducing the levels of iron and zinc. That would harm billions of already malnourished people, according to 2014 research by Samuel Myers, an environmental health expert at Harvard University.
Wine
By examining more than 500 years of harvest records, NASA researchers have found that wine grape harvests across
France, on average, now occur two weeks earlier than in the past.
While earlier harvests are normally associated with higher quality wines, continued warming could ultimately spell bad news for the 12 varieties that make up more than 80 percent of the wine market. For instance, an increase of temperatures may reduce the suitability of growing premium wines such as cabernet sauvignon and pinot noir, according to Calanit Bar-Am and Daniel Sumner with the University of California Agricultural Issues Center.
To adapt, vintners may have to plant lesserknown grape varieties that are better adapted to hotter climates and have higher drought tolerance.
Is it arrivederci for such a traditional San Francisco meal?
“If global warming goes unchecked, many of our favorite foods could disappear,” said Columbia University’s Halliday.
“Food production has to become more sustainable if we want to continue to enjoy making our favorite recipes.”