Trump in impossible bind after betrayal by Saudi crown prince
WASHINGTON >> If, as seems likely, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, then he’s joined Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un among the ranks of rogue leaders who assassinate their critics on foreign soil. The only difference is that the Russian president and North Korean leader weren’t reckless enough to kill them inside their own consulates.
The disappearance of Khashoggi, a Post contributing columnist, is a horrific crime. His loss will be felt deeply by all who cherish freedom of expression and believe all people, including those in the Arab world, deserve freedom.
It’s also a betrayal of President Trump, who made Saudi Arabia his first foreign trip as president and put his new administration’s reputation behind the crown prince and his reforms. The crown prince, or MBS, as he’s known, may have repaid Trump by brutally killing a permanent U.S. resident. His betrayal now puts Trump in an impossible bind. Trump must somehow reconcile three irreconcilable facts:
Fact No. 1: The U.S. can’t simply ignore Khashoggi’s death. Even if Trump wants to do so, Congress shouldn’t let him. There must be consequences.
Fact No. 2: MBS isn’t going anywhere. Saudi Arabia is a monarchy. He’s the son of the king. He’s spent the past few years systematically eliminating his rivals and consolidating power. A new leader’s not going to emerge to replace him, and if, by chance, one did, he’d likely roll back the crown prince’s efforts to rein in the religious establishment, clean up corruption and open up Saudi society. Be careful what you wish for.
Fact No. 3: We need Saudi Arabia, less as a source of oil — fracking has increased our energy independence — than as a counterweight to Iran, which is the main strategic menace to U.S. interests in the region. Saudi Arabia is our most important ally in countering that threat. No other country in the Middle East can play that role. A permanent breach with Saudi Arabia isn’t an acceptable outcome.
How does Trump reconcile these three facts? He can’t.
Democrats criticizing Trump as he tries to find a path forward need to check their hypocrisy. As my American Enterprise Institute colleague Danielle Pletka asks, “spare a moment to blame Obama for the war in Syria,” where half a million people died while the U.S. did nothing. If you had a role in Middle East policy in the past eight years, that finger you’re pointing at Trump has blood on it.
So, what’s going to happen? We need Saudi Arabia, but Saudi Arabia also needs us. Trump said he’s told MBS that Saudi Arabia wouldn’t last “two weeks” without U.S. military support. He’s right. We saved the Saudis from Saddam Hussein’s aggression and now protect them from Iran’s.
Trump should emphasize that these actions squandered support in Congress for the kingdom — and that, unlike Saudi Arabia, the U.S. isn’t a monarchy. Congress has a say in our Middle East policy. It can block military aid and arms sales. A bipartisan group of senators sent a letter to Trump calling for an investigation under the Magnitsky Act, which mandates U.S. sanctions, travel restrictions and freezing assets of foreign individuals who’ve committed gross violations of human rights. This would have real teeth. The royal family loves to travel outside the Arabian Peninsula, to do things they cannot do at home.
MBS has made Saudi Arabia an international pariah. If MBS wants to avoid a rupture in relations, he must acknowledge what he’s done and understand the gravity of this mistake. He must make restitution through steps such as the release of political prisoners. And he must commit to stopping this kind of brutal behavior. Because his professed desire to modernize Saudi Arabia is incompatible with the medieval horrors that apparently took place in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.