Races that may shape state for years to come
It’s a strange election for state offices. The race for governor is a pillow fight. The most intriguing contests are for state insurance commissioner and state superintendent of public instruction.
But none of the state contests has been drawing as much interest as previous state elections brawls, for two reasons:
One, President Trump. He’s not on the ballot, but he’s up front in every voter’s mind.
Two, the Republican Party has virtually collapsed in California and isn’t producing competitive statewide candidates.
It’s the opposite with Democrats, whose bench is overflowing with ambitious, frustrated wannabes.
The GOP is now No. 3 in voter registration (24.5 percent) behind “no party preference,” or “independents,” (26.8 percent) and Democrats (43.8 percent).
Since 1998, Republican registration has fallen 11 percentage points while independents have soared by 14. Democrats have dropped 3 points, but are helped by independents leaning left.
The California GOP has practically cratered because it dug a hole on illegal immigration and social issues and didn’t follow voters as they turned left. Two, the electorate has become increasingly diverse. Latinos and AsianAmericans — many from immigrant families — are siding with Democrats.
No Republican has won a statewide office since 2006. None is expected to this time either.
Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, 51, is a heavy favorite to be elected governor. A
more intriguing race is for insurance commissioner because one candidate is showing Republicans how they might win a statewide office. Career-long Republican Steve Poizner reregistered “no party preference.”
“He knew if he had that scarlet letter ‘R’ after his name in California he was going to lose,” Democratic strategist Garry South says.
Poizner, 61, was elected insurance commissioner as a Republican in 2006 after making a fortune as a Silicon Valley high-tech entrepreneur. He gave up the office to run for governor in 2010 and was trounced.
His Democratic opponent is state Sen. Ricardo Lara, 43, of Bell Gardens, one of the Legislature’s more liberal members.
Poizner is the first independent to run statewide in a general election.
“If Poizner wins, that becomes the new benchmark,” Republican consultant Rob Stutzman says. “It’ll mean Republicans don’t run anymore for statewide office as Republicans if they’re serious.”
In the contest for superintendent of public instruction, there’s a fierce fight between teachers unions and charter schools. The office is officially nonpartisan, but both contenders are Democrats.
Assemblyman Tony Thurmond, 50, of Richmond is the unions’ candidate. Education consultant Marshall Tuck, 45, is backed by charter school advocates. He previously managed turnaround efforts at some low-performing Los Angeles schools.
It’s a big bucks contest. There could be total campaign spending of around $50 million.
For teachers unions, the proliferation of nonunion charter schools is a threat. They want more state control over these schools and Thurmond agrees. Tuck advocates paying higher salaries to teachers in troubled schools, and the unions object to that special treatment.
Tuck narrowly lost to incumbent Tom Torlakson, the unions’ candidate, in 2014. A Tuck victory this time would be felt in the education world as a moderate earthquake.
California voters are riled up over Trump, but don’t seem to be in a rebellious mood about the state. A recent USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll found that 53 percent think California is going in the right direction, while 47 percent believe it’s on the wrong track.
Voters have until 8 p.m. Nov. 6 to officially cast any gripes.