Rain, likely to come to California next week, could clear out smoke, help firefighters’ battles

For the past week, California has been locked in a tense, daily mix of choking thick smoke and dangerously dry, windy fire-weather conditions. But an end might be around the corner.

Meteorologists said Tuesday that two storm systems appear to be developing over the Pacific Ocean, with rain increasingly likely next week for most of the state.

“It looks like the storm door is going to open,” said Jan Null, a meteorologist with Golden Gate Weather Services in Saratoga.

Atmospheric conditions could change. But for now, the storms are on track to bring about 1 inch of rain to the Bay Area by the Friday after Thanksgiving , according to computer models, with more in the areas near the Camp Fire in Butte County and perhaps half an inch in Southern California, where

fires continue to threaten homes in the Malibu and Ventura County areas.

The rain is desperately needed to wash high levels of soot out of the air that have triggered health advisories across Northern California and the Central Valley, including parts of Southern California.

On Tuesday, the Bay Area Air Quality Management District declared a “Spare the Air” day for every day through Friday, which makes it illegal for people to burn wood outdoors or in indoor fireplaces. Smoke from fires is linked to asthma, bronchitis and lung disease and is especially harmful for children and the elderly, the agency noted.

Much of the smoke in the Bay Area has been blowing down from Butte County where the Camp Fire leveled

the town of Paradise and killed at least 48 people, the deadliest fire in California history. But

starting next week, the winds will shift, forecasters say.

“Next Wednesday we are looking for a change in wind direction ahead of the cold front,” said Steve Anderson, forecaster with the National Weather Service in Monterey. “The smoke should be blown out by then. The smoke will be blown to the northeast, to Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, Washington, Canada.”

Anderson said that the coming shift in the weather should also help firefighters considerably.

“The amount of rain and where it will fall the most is still up in the air, but things are looking pretty good,” he said. “The humidity will go way up. It will help lay down the fire and help the fire crews to make faster progress on it.”

The Weather Channel’s computer models forecast

a 40 percent chance of rain every day from Thanksgiving Day through Nov. 27 for San Francisco, and a 40 percent chance in Los Angeles Nov. 21, 23 and 24.

For weeks, meteorologists say, a large ridge of high pressure air has blocked storms from reaching California. But supercomputers used by the National Weather Service and the European Union both show changes over the Pacific, with pressure dropping, and creating storm conditions by early next week north of Hawaii and east of Japan.

Those systems are forecast to move toward California and deliver showers as the high pressure ridge moves east over the Rocky Mountains.

“This is a hopeful pattern we’re seeing,” Null said. “Both models show a breakdown of the ridge.”

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center in Maryland on Tuesday forecast an “above average” chance of precipitation over the next 14 days in Northern and Southern California.

Null and Anderson both noted that the farther away a forecast date is, the greater the chance that it could change. By Monday, however, meteorologists will have more precise information, with satellite images to pinpoint whether the storms will come through as predicted or fizzle.

“For now, it looks like improving air quality next week and rain finally coming back,” said Anderson. “That’s something to be thankful for on Thanksgiving.”