Why the administration cannot deliver a workable Iran strategy
On the 40th anniversary of Iran’s Islamic revolution, the rhetoric between team Trump and the ayatollahs has risen to fever pitch.
In his State of the Union address, President Trump labeled Iran the “world’s leading state sponsor of terror” and “a radical regime” that does “bad, bad things.” The United States has withdrawn from a 2015 nuclear accord with Tehran and reimposed harsh economic sanctions.
Pushing back, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Friday that the Iranian slogan “‘Death to America’ means death to Trump and (national security adviser John) Bolton and (Secretary of State Mike) Pompeo.” Khamenei’s website said the slogan will remain alive until the U.S. changed its “evil and mean” ways.
Yet squeezing the Tehran regime has become the centerpiece of what passes for Trump’s Mideast strategy. Trump and his top officials have signaled their real goal is regime change. Bolton predicted in 2017 that the Tehran regime would fall by 2019.
This kind of magical thinking about Iran infuses Trump policy. Rather than check Tehran’s Mideast misbehavior, it sets the United States up to fail.
Iran does indeed meddle dangerously in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and the Arab Gulf.
But rather than work with European and key Arab allies, such as Iraq, to check Iran, the White House has tried to bludgeon them into confronting Tehran directly. This approach won’t work. Our key allies, Britain, Germany and France, wanted to keep the nuclear deal in place, while squeezing Iran toward a second pact addressing the deal’s loopholes (such as missile production). The allies also stood ready to join Trump in pressuring Iran on its Mideast mischief. Instead, Trump junked the deal, asserting that he was countering Iran’s nuclear threat. He called his own intel chiefs “naive” and “wrong” when they said Iran was adhering to the deal.
The result: Trump has split the key alliance against Tehran. The Europeans are seeking ways to work around new U.S. sanctions vs. Iran, with Russia and China ready to help. The allies want to prevent Iran from leaving the deal, which could set them back on the path to a bomb.
Next, let’s look at Trump’s efforts to rally the Sunni Arab world against Tehran.
Trump is relying heavily on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who likely ordered Jamal Khashoggi murdered and has made a military mess in Yemen, effectively increasing Iranian influence there.
Meantime, Trump’s sudden decision to swiftly pull all U.S. troops out of Syria (by April, says the Wall Street Journal) will increase Iranian influence there.
As for Iraq, Trump’s public proclamation last week that U.S. troops there will “watch Iran” was rejected even by America’s closest Iraqi allies.
A quiet U.S. policy to continue training Iraq’s army to balance Tehran’s immense influence would be welcome in Baghdad, but not a Trump bludgeon.
Indeed, Trump’s public Iran-bashing, and his demands that allies join in, guarantees his policy’s failure.
Today, Pompeo convenes a highlevel international conference in Warsaw meant to build an antiIran coalition. The EU won’t send its foreign minister, and doesn’t want to provoke Iran to quit the nuclear framework. Pompeo isn’t likely to make much progress.
That’s because the U.S. demands on Iran are aimed at toppling the regime, not at assembling an effective coalition to make Tehran curb its geopolitical excesses.
By alienating useful allies and relying on magical thinking, Trump enables the ayatollahs to keep destabilizing the Middle East.