Pac-12 South rising up to challenge North in football
The Pac-12 North was the only division in the Power Five last season to produce four teams with at least nine victories.
The Big Ten East and SEC West only had three; the entire Big 12 had two.
That’s not to suggest the Pac-12 North was the best division in the land; the absence of a serious playoff contender greatly undermines its case for supremacy. But for quality depth, the division held its own in ’18, and it looks ready for a repeat.
The Washington schools, Stanford and Oregon all emerged from spring practice with the foundations in place for first-rate seasons, and Cal isn’t far behind.
After watching the South muddle through the fall and lose many of its top players to the NFL, the Hotline plunged into the division’s depth charts to find evidence that an uptick is coming … that mediocrity won’t dominate the proceedings once again … that the South will be the equal (or close) of the North … that it has the talent and experience at enough positions to raise the Pac-12’s floor in 2019.
After hours of research, the Hotline can conclusively state that we cannot draw any conclusions. Too many teams are too heavily reliant on unproven players, particularly on defense, for us to presume division-wide improvement.
Now that we’ve been clearly unclear about that matter, here is the Hotline breakdown of the Pac-12, presented in alphabetical order and by division.
THE NORTH
CAL (CAMP OPENS AUG. 2) >> Until we have proof of a trajectory change, the Bears look destined for a repeat of ’18: Ferocious on defense — the unit could be better than it was last season — but exasperating on offense (for Cal fans and coaches alike) ... That combination should be good enough for another bowl berth and an upset within the division. But the Bears won’t seriously compete in the North until they add a consistent big-play element. (They were No. 124 nationally in yards-per-attempt last season).
OREGON (AUG. 2) >> The Ducks take over from Washington the role of Pac-12 team in the summer spotlight,
thanks to a neutralsite duel with Auburn in Week One that looms large for the conference ... The Hotline picked Oregon to win the North at the start of winter workouts, and we’re sticking with that projection through the close of spring ... Developing options in the passing game — not only depth but the timing between Juwan Johnson and Justin Herbert — is the priority during 7-on-7 workouts. OREGON STATE (AUG. 2) >> Pretty much any opener would be easier than last year’s assignment in Columbus, but the Beavers have an ideal situation with Oklahoma State visiting Corvallis: A Power Five opponent that maybe, just maybe, they can beat ... Quarterback Jake Luton has more than enough support up front and talent around him to produce a respectable offense ... The issues for OSU are whether the leaky defense can hold opponents under 40 early in the season (we’re skeptical) and whether it has the quality depth to hold foes under 50 late in the year, after injuries pile up (we’re extremely skeptical).
STANFORD (AUG. 2) >> For all the injuries in spring, the Cardinal should have its key players available for training camp ... There are a plethora of questions on offense as Stanford searches for playmakers attempts to regain its mojo on the offensive line ... We slotted the Cardinal in fourth place in our January projections and saw in the spring nothing
to prompt a revision. The issues on offense, the lack of elite talent on the front seven and the brutal schedule form a daunting combination ... Perhaps no team in the country plays a tougher first four games: The Cardinal opens with Northwestern (home), USC (road), UCF (road) and Oregon (home). WASHINGTON (AUG. 2) >> Besides the quarterback battle — Danville’s Jake Haener vs. Georgia transfer Jacob Eason — position — there is Hunter Bryant’s knee, Trey Adams’ back, the use of the tailback Sean Mcgrew in the passing game (to complement Salvon Ahmed) and the emergence of edge pressure: UW was 100th in the nation in sacks last season, which might come as a surprise to many ... The Huskies have one game to get sharp, feisty Eastern Washington, before they host Cal in Week 2. WASHINGTON STATE (AUG. 2) >> Finalizing the quarterback is No. 1 order of business. Anthony Gordon is the apparent leader, Eastern Washington transfer Gage Gubrud will compete in training camp (assuming
full health) ... With tailback Max Borghi and what might be the best group of receivers of the Mike Leach era, the Cougars won’t lack for Air Raid playmakers ... If Gordon/gubrud is efficient and the defense approaches its level from the previous two season, WSU should contend in the North.
THE SOUTH
ARIZONA (JULY 26) >> Arizona’s offseason is one week shorter because of the Aug. 24 season opener at Hawaii ... The primary challenge hasn’t changed since the end of last season: The Wildcats must get bigger, stronger and better on the lines of scrimmage in order to compete in the South, where the scale has lurched toward the power game with Utah’s ascent and the arrival of head coaches with a preference for running the ball (Mel Tucker, Herm Edwards and Chip Kelly). The Wildcats need immediate help from the influx of junior college transfers on both sides of scrimmage. If that unfolds and quarterback Khalil Tate remains healthy, a postseason berth awaits. ARIZONA STATE (JULY 31) >> Herm Edwards was smart to move spring ball into February: The earlier you finish, the more time for injuries to heal, for players to work on their deficiencies and for the coaching staff to align its spring recruiting priorities. (Don’t be surprised if more teams follow ASU’S lead, although weather and the spring exam schedule are part of
the calculation.) ... The issues facing ASU on the final day of February will exist the 29th day of August, when the Devils open the season against Kent State: New quarterback, no N’keal Harry, attrition on the lines and a defense that’s no longer young but, in many spots, not quite mature.
COLORADO (AUG. 1) >> Based on the spring game, we’re now projecting a very real quarterback competition in training camp -- unlike the faux versions for other South teams -- with Sam Noyer (and Tyler Lytle) pushing senior Steven Montez in the Buffs’ new offense ... Progress made on the offensive line will be essential, as well ... Colorado conducted more physical practices under Mel Tucker, whose preference is for an Sec-style identity. That, too, should continue into training camp ... The more CU can do to alleviate the workload on Laviska Shenault, the better chance he has of staying healthy for 12 games. The departure of Travon Mcmillan (1,000 yards) leaves a void in the backfield.
UCLA (JULY 31) >> The Bruins open on the road against Cincinnati and then face San Diego State and Oklahoma at home: They can’t afford to misuse a minute in camp ... We expect the defense to continue its improvement through camp and into the season, partly because of the comfort level with Jerry Azzinaro’s scheme and partly because of personnel upgrades over
the past 18 months ... The primary area of need on offense is out wide, and to that extent the progress of JC transfer Jaylen Erwin, who was impressive in the spring game, seems paramount.
USC (AUG. 2) >> Plenty of talk out of USC camp this spring about the simplified defense and the impact of the Air Raid on the skill positions. But the Hotline will be tracking the offensive line through training camp. New/old line coach Tim Drevno, who worked for the Trojans in 2014 before a stint in Ann Arbor, must upgrade the underachieving unit in order for the Trojans to compete in the South. We wouldn’t be surprised if Drevno has a substantial impact and proves one of the best staff hires of the offseason.
UTAH (JULY 31) >> The Utes were my pick to win the South in January, and nothing has changed: No team has a better combination of line-of-scrimmage play, proven production at the skill positions/quarterback and defensive perimeter talent ... The Utes aren’t without holes, with linebacker and safety atop the list ... The departure of tailback Armand Shyne, who transferred to Texas Tech, depletes the depth behind Zack Moss for an offense that figures to make a full commitment to the running game under coordinator Andy Ludwig, who joined/returned to the program following the departure of Troy Taylor.