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AFC WEST

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (12-4 IN 2018)

New faces: DE Frank Clark, S Tyrann Mathieu, DE Alex Okafor, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, RB Carlos Hyde, CB Bashaud Breeland, LB Darron Lee, LB Damien Wilson, S Juan Thornhill, WR Mecole Hardman, DT Khalen Saunders

They’re gone: OLB Dee Ford, OLB Justin Houston, S Eric Berry, C Mitch Morse, DT Allen Bailey, CB Steven Nelson, TE Demetrius Harris, WR Chris Conley, RB Spencer Ware, S Eric Murray, S Ron Parker 2019 snapshot: The team that came thisclose to a Super Bowl appearance didn’t rest on its laurels, instead churning the coaching staff and roster, particularly on defense.

Steve Spagnuolo replaced fired D-coordinator Bob Sutton, while Clark, Mathieu and Okafor/ogbah step in for departed Pro Bowlers Ford, Berry and Houston, respectively. At best, those changes feel like a wash, especially because Clark and Mathieu have higher salaries than their counterparts (and acquiring Clark cost Kansas City its first-round pick).

The defense added enough talent to improve, depending on how quickly the group clicks under Spagnuolo, but there are still concerns. Unless Breeland returns to his form from Washington, cornerback remains a question mark. There’s also no dangerous edge-rushing threat other than Clark. Chris Jones could hold out while seeking a massive extension entering a contract year, and locking him up is imperative after trading Ford and releasing Houston. The Chiefs caught a break when Tyreek Hill avoided league punishment following a child and family services investigation. The pick of Hardman (second round) provided some insurance, but Hill’s role as a centerpiece in Andy Reid’s offense would have been impossible to fill if he missed time. The offense made few other additions while losing its starting center (Morse) and a few role players, and all numbers suggest at least slight regression from 2018’s heights.

• Patrick Mahomes’ sudden stardom makes the Chiefs an annual favorite for doubledigit wins. Taking the over on 10.5 wins always carries risk, but this team is a good bet. Bottom line: The Chiefs clearly worked to improve on defense, but the upgrades appear marginal for now. They remain Super Bowl contenders but might have to keep winning shootouts.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (12-4)

New faces: LB Thomas Davis, QB Tyrod Taylor, DT Jerry Tillery, S Nasir Adderley, P Tyler Newsome

They’re gone: WR Tyrell Williams, DT Corey Liuget, S Jahleel Addae, CB Jason Verrett, DT Darius Philon, P Donnie Jones

2019 snapshot: Already one of the better teams in the AFC, the Chargers didn’t need any remodeling this spring, instead focusing on minor touchups.

They found much-needed talent and depth at linebacker, re-signing Denzel Perryman (two years, $12million) and adding Davis (two years, $10.5million) on very reasonable deals. Dime safety Adrian Phillips (one year, $2million) was also retained for cheap, giving coordinator Gus Bradley several options to cover tight ends and running backs. GM Tom Telesco addressed the D-line by keeping Brandon Mebane (two years, $10.6 million) and drafting Tillery, whose upside is among the highest of any prospect in the 2019draft class. He then found a perfect partner for Derwin James in Adderley (second round), who has the speed and ball skills to patrol center field while James hunts in the box. Williams’ departure was inevitable (and should bring a fourth-round compensatory pick). While another body at wide receiver would have helped, Mike Williams, Travis Benjamin and Dylan Cantrell should be able to pick up the slack. The O-line could have used an upgrade or two — guards Dan Feeney and Michael Schofield and right tackle Sam Tevi struggled at times last year — but continuity usually breeds improvement up front, and there’s still hope for 2017second-rounder Forrest Lamp to develop.

• Taking the over on the Chargers’ 10-win total is scary given their rotten luck in recent years, but this team is good enough to win 13or even 14.

• Philip Rivers has never won MVP, garnering only two votes when he led the NFL in passer rating in 2008. But there are worse bets than his +2000 odds.

Bottom line: Two wins from the Super Bowl a year ago, the Chargers didn’t mess with the formula and still found a few upgrades. They should threaten in the playoffs yet again.

DENVER BRONCOS (6-10) New faces: QB Joe Flacco, OT Ja’wuan James, DB Kareem Jackson, CB Bryce Callahan, TE Noah Fant, G Dalton Risner, QB Drew Lock, DT Dre’mont Jones, OLB Dekoda Watson

They’re gone: C Matt Paradis, CB Bradley Roby, OL Billy Turner, OLB Shaquil Barrett, OLB Shane Ray, LB Brandon Marshall, S Darian Stewart, OT Jared Veldheer, DT Domata Peko, TE Matt Lacosse, G Max Garcia, CB Tramaine Brock 2019snapshot: Firing Vance Joseph meant admitting an error from two years ago, but the Broncos appear to have upgraded the staff. Not only did they get defensive whiz Vic Fangio — whom players raved about during offseason practices — but Fangio nabbed Kyle Shanahan pupil Rich Scangarello to run the offense and pried decorated O-line coach Mike Munchak from the Steelers. Still, GM John Elway’s approach felt a bit too aggressive in other areas.

He traded a fourth-round pick for Joe Flacco, whom the Ravens might have otherwise cut, and spent wildly on James (four years, $51million) and Jackson (three years, $33 million), who might mostly play safety. Jackson’s contract fueled a contract dispute with CB Chris Harris Jr. that required a $3million raise to resolve. Callahan’s (three years, $21 million) was a more palatable deal, and Fangio should have what he needs in the secondary, but would the money have been better spent on Paradis and the O-line?

Elway used a few trades to assemble a strong draft class, getting early-impact players in Fant and Risner and still landing a possible answer at QB in Lock, but he might have been better off trading for Josh Rosen or drafting Dwayne Haskins.

• Denver has an over/under win line of seven. In this AFC West, even getting to .500is not a sure thing for this crew. Bottom Line: Denver could be improved on the coaching staff, at QB and in the secondary, but Elway might have to accept a rebuild at some point.

RAIDERS (4-12)

New faces: WR Antonio Brown, OT Trent Brown, WR Tyrell Williams, S Lamarcus Joyner, DE Clelin Ferrell, RB Josh Jacobs, S Jonathan Abram, LB Vontaze Burfict, G Richie Incognito, LB Brandon Marshall, RB Isaiah Crowell, CB Nevin Lawson, CB Trayvon Mullen, QB Mike Glennon They’re gone: TE Jared Cook, G Kelechi Osemele, WR Jordy Nelson, OT Donald Penn, RB Marshawn Lynch, WR Seth Roberts, S Reggie Nelson, S Marcus Gilchrist, CB Rashaan Melvin

2019snapshot: Never lacking for headlines, the Raiders had another eventful offseason that, in turn, landed them on HBO’S Hard Knocks for the first time.

Jon Gruden’s hire of GM Mike Mayock was surprising, but Mayock’s eye for talent is well regarded. The pair then embarked on an aggressive search for talent while simultaneously touting culture and then disregarding it.

The Raiders justified taking Ferrell fourth overall — a reach on almost any draft board

— by lauding his impeccable character, even after the team added talented-butdisruptive veterans in Antonio Brown and Burfict (and later Incognito). Oakland’s other first-round picks (Jacobs and Abram) were better values, but both play positions of relatively low value, and it’s hard to imagine either bringing sufficient return for the trading away of Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack.

NEXT SUNDAY

NFC previews Oakland’s spending spree in free agency drew some criticism, as Trent Brown (four years, $66million), Joyner (four years, $42million) and Williams (four years, $43 million) were all handsomely overpaid. However, the Raiders smartly structured deals to be escaped after one or two years with minimal cap consequences. The same was true of Antonio Brown’s new deal (three years, $50.1million), which can be chopped easily after two years if things go south.

Those deals were still too rich, but there are much worse uses of cap space.

• Even if things don’t click with all the new arrivals, the Raiders have enough talent to reach their over/under of six wins. Betting on more is reasonable but not without risk.

• It wasn’t that long ago (mid2016) that Derek Carr was getting peripheral MVP buzz. That was clearly premature, but his 100-1odds to win it in 2019might be worth a shot. Bottom line: The Raiders were hypocritical in emphasizing character and handed out some massive salaries, but they also made major talent upgrades, especially if Antonio Brown pans out.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON TEXANS (11-5) New faces: S Tashaun Gipson, CB Bradley Roby, OT Matt Kalil, OT Tytus Howard, OL Max Scharping, S Jahleel Addae, CB Lonnie Johnson, TE Darren Fells, TE Kahale Warring

They’re gone: S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Kareem Jackson, WR Demaryius Thomas, OT Kendall Lamm, CB Kevin Johnson, TE Ryan Griffin, DT Christian Covington, RB Alfred Blue, CB Kayvon Webster 2019 snapshot: Firing GM Brian Gaine 17months into a five-year contract was certainly cause for concern. Gaine wasn’t given the resources nor the time to prove he was the wrong man for the job, and the Texans weren’t able to pry Nick Caserio from New England (yet) to replace him, choosing to go without a GM for the 2019season. How will they navigate without a GM? Will the post remain open until Caserio’s Patriots contract is up after the 2020draft?

Either way, many of the Texans’ moves this spring were curious. Set on improving Deshaun Watson’s protection, Houston focused on offensive tackle but might not have made large enough gains. Free agent signee Kalil is a liability even when healthy. In the draft, the Texans were jumped by the Eagles for Andre Dillard and then took Howard 23rd overall, a significant reach on most boards for the Alabama State product. Scharping (second round, Northern Illinois) provides another option, but trusting small-school rookies to play early is dangerous.

The secondary turned over without really improving, as Gipson, Roby and Lonnie Johnson must make up for the more proven trio of Mathieu, Jackson and Kevin Johnson. Franchise-tagged linebacker Jadeveon Clowney remains away from the team and without a long-term contract.

• After winning 11games and their division last season, the Texans should probably top their 8-win over/under, but a disappointing season is certainly possible given the improved AFC South.

• Watson has the star power and talent to win MVP, and his odds are rather enticing. At +3300, he’s even with Jimmy Garoppolo and a longer shot than Mitchell Trubisky (+2000).

Bottom line: The Texans don’t look all that improved, and they enter the year without a GM, which puts just about anything on the table. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-6) New faces: DE Justin Houston, WR Devin Funchess, RB Spencer Ware, CB Rock Ya-sin, LB Ben Banogu, WR Parris Campbell, LB Bobby Okereke

They’re gone: WR Dontrelle Inman, DT Al Woods, WR Ryan Grant, S J.J. Wilcox, G Matt Slauson, S Mike Mitchell 2019 snapshot: With more than $45million still remaining in cap space, the Colts certainly could have gone bigger in free agency.

Trey Flowers, Earl Thomas, Ndamukong Suh and Le’veon Bell were all realistic options, and Indianapolis probably could have nabbed two of them. But GM Chris Ballard is committed to smart, patient building, and it’s hard to question that approach after he orchestrated the Colts’ bounce-back season in 2018. Ballard did pay up for Houston (two years, $24million), who immediately brings a pass-rush presence the team hasn’t had since Robert Mathis retired, and on extensions for CBS Pierre Desir (three years, $22.5million) and Kenny Moore (four years, $34million). He also kept S Clayton Geathers (one year, $2.8million) and DT Margus Hunt (two years, $9million) on modest deals. The biggest surprise was the one-year, $10million deal (with $3million in incentives) for Funchess, who fell out of favor in Carolina.

Ballard didn’t do anything fancy in the draft, either, trading down a few times to collect a war chest of picks and spending them mostly on defensive talents. The lone offensive pick, Campbell, will be one of Frank Reich’s favorite weapons, with wheels to terrify defenses on the speedy Lucas Oil Stadium turf.

• The Colts have come a long way, going from 1-5 last season to being one of seven teams with a doubledigit over/under win total (10). They’re capable of topping that mark, but 11wins is a lot for any team.

• Yet to win an MVP in his career, Andrew Luck seems destined for one sooner or later. Unfortunately, Vegas feels the same way, putting his odds (+650) behind only reigning winner Patrick Mahomes (+450).

Bottom line: If Indy’s Super Bowl window were closing, you could question Ballard’s lack of aggression this offseason. But it’s not, and the Colts might still wind up in Miami in February anyway. TENNESSEE TITANS (9-7) New faces: G Rodger Saffold, WR Adam Humphries, DE Cameron Wake, QB Ryan Tannehill, DT Brent Urban, DT Jeffery Simmons, WR A.J. Brown

They’re gone: OLB Brian Orakpo, OLB Derrick Morgan, S Johnathan Cyprien, DT Bennie Logan, G Josh Kline, TE Luke Stocker, G Quinton Spain, QB Blaine Gabbert

2019 snapshot: A smallmarket team that hasn’t won double-digit games since 2008, the Titans don’t draw many headlines, but they’ve been perhaps the league’s most aggressive team under GM Jon Robinson and head coach Mike Vrabel. For the second consecutive year, they handed out multiple major deals in free agency and then took heavy risks in the draft. The question is whether that aggression makes sense, especially for two men who learned from the famously patient Patriots. Saffold (four years, $44 million) and Humphries (four years, $36million) should both help contract-year QB Marcus Mariota, but neither contract has an easy out if either flops. Tennessee also paid the 37-year-old Wake (three years, $23million) handsomely, giving the team two undersized starting edge rushers along with Harold Landry.

Brown should contribute early, but his fit is odd — he’s best in the slot, where Humphries thrives and where Corey Davis has flashed at times. Despite adding Brown and Humphries, Tennessee’s offense still lacks perimeter speed. Meanwhile, the Titans’ first-round pick, Simmons, is recovering from a torn ACL and might not play this year.

The Titans deserve credit for adding an option at quarterback in Tannehill, who could fill in if Mariota gets hurt or struggles.

• The Titans have reached nine wins in three straight seasons, making the over on their 7.5-win total look very reasonable.

Bottom line: Tennessee made some clear upgrades but took plenty of risks, and the pieces don’t quite seem to fit right. If Mariota doesn’t blossom, serious changes could follow next year. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (5-11)

New faces: QB Nick Foles, LB Jake Ryan, DE Josh Allen, OT Jawaan Taylor, WR Chris Conley, WR Terrelle Pryor, TE Geoff Swaim, TE Josh Oliver They’re gone: DT Malik Jackson, S Tashaun Gipson, LB Telvin Smith (at least for 2019), OT Jermey Parnell, WR Donte Moncrief, QB Blake Bortles, RB Carlos Hyde, TE Austin Seferian-jenkins, G Chris Reed

2019 snapshot: The Bortles era is finally over, and Foles will surely provide an upgrade. The price tag ($22 million annually, up to $25 million annually with incentives) was curiously high considering there was no other apparent suitor. There also isn’t much evidence Foles is a quality starter outside of Philadelphia, where his career rating is 74.2compared to 93.2 with the Eagles. Pairing with former Eagles QB coach John Defilippo could help, but the duo seems like an odd fit with Jacksonville’s run-heavy identity.

If Foles isn’t more than an average starter, the Jaguars’ defense must get back near its 2016form, but the group still has plenty of holes. Jackson (released), Gipson (released) and Smith — who announced he won’t play in 2019for personal reasons — were all key pieces of the dominant group from two years ago, and none has a proven replacement on the roster. Ryan helps some but isn’t nearly as fast as Smith. On the plus side, the Jags had a terrific draft, capitalizing on Allen’s slide to No. 7overall and then scooping up Taylor — considered a top-10 prospect by some — in Round 2. Oliver needs polish but has the talent to thrive as a receiver.

• Are the Jaguars closer to their 2017selves (10-6) than the group that went 5-11last year? Vegas smartly has the 2019over/under smack dab in the middle at 7.5.

Bottom line: Foles is an upgrade, but he’s far from a savior. Likewise, the Jags should be better, but the difference might be marginal.

—Field Level Media