NFL PREVIEW CAPSULES
AFC NORTH
BALTIMORE RAVENS (10-6 IN 2018)
New faces: S Earl Thomas III, RB Mark Ingram II, WR Marquise Brown, OLB Jaylon Ferguson, WR Miles Boykin, OLB Pernell Mcphee, OLB Shane Ray, CB Justin Bethel, WR Seth Roberts They’re gone: LB C.J. Mosley, S Eric Weddle, OLB Terrell Suggs, QB Joe Flacco, OLB Za’darius Smith, WR John Brown, DT Brent Urban, WR Michael Crabtree, RB Alex Collins
2019 snapshot: Even for a team used to letting talent walk in favor of compensatory picks, the Ravens had to be a little alarmed by how many big names departed this offseason. Obviously Flacco’s departure was inevitable — and he fetched a fourth-round pick despite the Ravens having no leverage — and Weddle was released.
But Baltimore likely didn’t expect Mosely, Suggs and Smith all to leave in free agency. Mosely’s departure was particularly concerning as (along with Weddle) a defensive leader and communicator, and no apparent replacement was added at inside linebacker.
New GM Eric Decosta countered with the terrific signing of Thomas, who is still near his physical prime at age 30 but also brings the leadership, versatility and ability to disguise that Weddle offered. On the edge, Decosta didn’t overpay for replacements, instead trying cheap one-year fliers on Ray and Mcphee and drafting Ferguson, the NCAA’S alltime sack leader, in Round 3. On offense, Baltimore made a concerted effort to build around QB Lamar Jackson, promoting Greg Roman to offensive coordinator, resigning sturdy blocking TE Nick Boyle and adding speed (Brown and Boykin) at wideout. Mark Ingram (three years, $15million) cost a bit much, but he should be very productive with Jackson drawing so much attention. More competition at center would have been nice, but the O-line remains solid.
• At 100-1, Lamar Jackson is not a heavy favorite to win the NFL’S Most Valuable Player award. But considering his short resume as a pro and peers in the same range — including Bears outside linebacker Khalil Mack — more than a few dollars are like to land on No. 8 this summer.
Bottom Line: Some of the Ravens’ plans were likely shaken by free agency, but they still managed to build around Jackson, which was priority No. 1. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-6-1)
New faces: CB Steven Nelson, LB Mark Barron, LB Devin Bush, WR Donte Moncrief, WR Diontae Johnson, CB Justin Layne, RB Benny Snell
They’re gone: WR Antonio Brown, RB Le’veon Bell, OT Marcus Gilbert, TE Jesse James, S Morgan Burnett, LB Jon Bostic
2019 snapshot: There’s no getting around it: The Steelers said goodbye to perhaps the best wide receiver (Brown) and the best running back (Bell) of the past five years. That’s difficult to swallow, but was there anything Pittsburgh could have done differently this offseason?
Bell’s departure was inevitable long ago. Letting him walk also wasn’t the worst idea given the dangers of paying running backs big money. Perhaps Brown’s situation could have been resolved, but the disgruntled wideout appeared determined to barge his way out of Pittsburgh, with no regard for collateral damage. How ugly would it be if he were still on the Steelers’ roster? Pittsburgh never had the leverage to bring back a big return, but it did get two picks for Brown, one of whom (Johnson) should contribute early. The Steelers found another option at receiver in free agency (Moncrief) and worked to upgrade at linebacker and cornerback in both free agency and the draft. After signing Barron and Nelson, they traded up for Bush, who should step right into Ryan Shazier’s old spot in the middle of the defense. Layne brings lots of talent but has time to develop from the bench. Pittsburgh also got quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s extension done as he approached a contract year, an inevitable but important move that ensures the Super Bowl window will remain open another few years.
• At 9.5 wins via Pointsbet. com, the Steelers are still expected to be in the mix in the AFC North. How realistic is that future proposition based on the subtractions from the roster? Getting to 8-8 seems a reasonable ask, but 10 wins would be a major achievement for Mike Tomlin’s crew.
Bottom Line: No team in the league lost two more talented players, and Brown and Bell defined Pittsburgh’s offseason, but much of it was out of the Steelers’ hands.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (7-8-1)
New faces: WR Odell Beckham Jr., DT Sheldon Richardson, DE Olivier Vernon, RB Kareem Hunt, CB Greedy Williams, S Morgan Burnett, S Eric Murray
They’re gone: G Kevin Zeitler, S Jabrill Peppers, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, QB Tyrod Taylor, LB Jamie Collins, WR Breshad Perriman, TE Darren Fells, OT Desmond Harrison
2019 snapshot: John Dorsey sure isn’t shy about swinging for the fences. With an already impressive roster, the Browns’ GM heaped on more talent this offseason, albeit taking some risks in the process. How risky those moves prove to be might depend on Dorsey’s first decision, which was to hire Freddie Kitchens as head coach. The former RBS coach and interim offensive coordinator was a somewhat surprising choice, but he provides continuity for second-year QB Baker Mayfield. Now, can Kitchens manage all of Cleveland’s personalities? Beckham’s talent far outweighs the headaches he creates, and his acquisition could be the single most impactful of the offseason. The compensation (pick Nos. 17 and 95, plus Peppers) was a bargain, and if Beckham and college teammate Jarvis Landry feed off each other, the move will look even better. Dorsey also added disruption up front by inking Richardson (three years, $37million) and trading for Vernon, and he nabbed one of the draft’s top cornerbacks in Williams despite losing draft capital in the deal for Beckham. Trading Zeitler (for Vernon) could hurt the offensive line, but 2018 second-rounder Austin Corbett should be ready to step in at right guard. Trusting Greg Robinson to hold up for a whole season at left tackle is bold, though he performed well in the second half of 2018. Hunt’s addition also was risky, but the payoff could be huge if the Pro Bowl selection can stay on the field.
• Everyone with a dollar is ready to buy the Browns, but at what cost? They’re no longer a value bet and books are starting to swing the pendulum to reflect the amount of buy-in they’re seeing in Cleveland.
• Mayfield remains a decent get in the MVP race, however, at 25-1. Sounds rich, we know, considering his treading into Drew Brees-matt Ryan territory if the Browns get off to a hot start. That also means he’s presently at value at Pointsbet.com. Break it down in the simplest of terms: Quarterbacks win MVP in this league, and if the Browns write the miracle playoff run some think is possible, it’ll be Mayfield playing the role Patrick Mahomes did for the 2018Kansas City Chiefs. Bottom Line: It’s hard to argue with adding so much talent. If Kitchens proves to be the right hire, this is a grand slam.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-10)
New faces: OT Jonah Williams, OG John Miller, CB B.W. Webb, DT Kerry Wynn, TE Drew Sample, LB Germaine Pratt
They’re gone: TE Tyler Kroft, LB Vontaze Burfict, DE Michael Johnson, LB Vincent Rey, OT Cedric
Ogbuehi
2019 snapshot: One of the league’s most conservative teams, the Bengals went off the rails — by their standards — in not only firing head coach Marvin Lewis but hiring a young, offensive mind from outside the organization in Zac Taylor. Lewis’ tenure probably should have ended much earlier, but the team deserves credit for passing on familiarbut-lackluster options and swinging big with Taylor instead.
Other than the coaching change, the Bengals were predictably unflashy. They re-signed a trio of averageat-best players (OT Bobby Hart, LB Preston Brown, TE C.J. Uzomah) to surprisingly lucrative three-year deals (each more than $16 million), then gave similar contracts to Miller and Webb, both of whom were below-average starters with their former teams.
Cincinnati managed to keep a few talented players on short one-year contracts in TE Tyler Eifert ($4million) and CB Darqueze Dennard ($4.5 million) and released Burfict, which was overdue. A meat-and-potatoes draft added some nice pieces — including the potential long-term left tackle in Williams — but taking a blocking tight end (Sample) in Round 2 after re-signing two players at the position was awfully rich. Pratt (third round) could break into a mediocre linebacking corps, but he remains raw. It’s also worth wondering if the Bengals should have drafted a quarterback such as Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock, as they might not get a similar chance again soon.
• Losing rookie tackle Williams to a season-ending injury is a major hit for the MVP chances of running back Joe Mixon and quarterback Andy Dalton, who were well down the board to begin with. In a division defined by defense, not having a blindside protector for Dalton is a big variable to factor into any futures.
• That includes the W/L number, which checks in at a modest 6.
Bottom Line: Cincinnati finally made a much-needed coaching overhaul, but the roster doesn’t look much better elsewhere. Plenty of work remains, and getting to 6-10 will not be easy.
AFC EAST
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-5)
New faces: DE Michael Bennett, LB Jamie Collins, WR Demaryius Thomas, TE Benjamin Watson, TE Matt Lacosse, WR N’keal Harry, WR Dontrelle Inman, DL Mike Pennel, RB Brandon Bolden, S Terrence Brooks, CB Joejuan Williams, DE Chase Winovich, RB Damien Harris
They’re gone: TE Rob Gronkowski, DE Trey Flowers, OT Trent Brown, DT Malcom Brown, WR Chris Hogan, DE Adrian Clayborn, TE Dwayne Allen, WR Cordarrelle Patterson, CB Eric Rowe, OT Laadrian Waddle 2019 snapshot: Another offseason, another talent exodus in New England. Given the Patriots just won the Super Bowl, nobody should be panicking, but Gronkowski, Flowers and Trent Brown will be very tough to replace. At the same time, Gronk’s retirement was out of the team’s
control, and the Patriots certainly would not have paid Flowers (five years, $90 million) or Brown (four years, $66 million) anywhere near the money they landed on the open market.
As usual, the Patriots regrouped and reloaded in a variety of creative ways. Bennett cost only a swap of late-round picks and should step right into Flowers’ role, with inside-outside versatility and pass rush. Collins was brought back for a bargain $2 million after his release in Cleveland, and Watson (one year, $3 million) and Lacosse (two years, $2.8 million) provide cheap options at tight end. Between Thomas, Harry and Inman, the receiving corps should produce a few suitable options.
Some questions remain. Offensive tackle is thin after Brown and Waddle left in free agency, and signee Jared Veldheer decided to retire. The tight end spot lacks a clear answer or upside after Bill Belichick surprisingly didn’t draft one from a quality group of prospects and released Austin Seferian-jenkins during the offseason program. Even so, Belichick produced an excellent draft class overall, with Williams, Winovich and Harris all expected to contribute early in addition to Harry.
• The Patriots have the NFL’S highest over/under win total (11) and the best odds to win Super Bowl LIV (+600). Both figures feel a tad rich, but each could hit if Tom Brady doesn’t fall off a cliff.
• As usual, Brady is among the favorites for MVP, with decent odds at +1400 (surprisingly behind Baker Mayfield at +1100). He needs two more to tie Peyton Manning (five) for most all-time, but the soon-to-be 42-year-old might not get the requisite volume. Bottom line: The Patriots are clearly less talented overall, but it’s hard to argue with many of their decisions in a vacuum. Until Brady declines, they should remain a juggernaut.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-9) New faces: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB Josh Rosen, TE Dwayne Allen, DT Christian Wilkins, CB Eric Rowe, OT Jordan Mills, OG Chris Reed, C Michael Deiter
They’re gone: QB Ryan Tannehill, OT Ja’wuan James, DE Cameron Wake, DE Robert Quinn, OG Josh Sitton, RB Frank Gore, WR Danny Amendola, C Travis Swanson
2019 snapshot: Miami made major changes last spring while touting the importance of culture, but this offseason was even more extreme in that regard, with a complete reset.
GM Chris Grier gained full control of personnel with Mike Tannenbaum gone and brought in head coach Brian Flores, who will run the defense while fellow former Patriot Chad O’shea coordinates the offense. Jim Caldwell was brought in to be assistant head coach/quarterbacks, but will instead be a consultant after a leave of absence for medical reasons.
The offense will also have a new leader for the first time since 2012, as Tannehill was dealt, and Fitzpatrick (two years, $11million) and Rosen (acquired for secondand fifth-round picks) were brought in. The trade for Rosen is a home run any
way you look at it: The Dolphins owe just $6.3million over three years for the opportunity to see if a top-10 prospect (who was better than his numbers in Arizona) is their long-term answer at QB. If he isn’t, he still brings value as a backup.
The Dolphins were mostly quiet elsewhere, saying goodbye to three key O-linemen and bringing in uninspiring replacements. Mills isn’t nearly at James’ level, and the interior has major concerns even if Deiter (third round) can start right away. Those issues could muddy the evaluation of Rosen.
• The Dolphins and Cardinals are tied for the Nfllow over/under win total (five), and Miami’s tanking intentions have been widely reported. That said, Fitzpatrick could get hot and win a few games, and Rosen will be quite motivated. We’d say away from this one.
• For longshot fans out there, how about Miami at +2000to win the AFC East? Stranger things have happened, like when the 2008 Dolphins — coming off a 1-15 season — claimed the only non-patriots division title since 2003despite preseason odds of +4000. Bottom line: The defense could use more help, and the lack of investment in the Oline is troubling, but Rosen’s arrival is a major boost. Odds are, it won’t lead to many wins in 2019, which might be Miami’s preference, anyway.
BUFFALO BILLS (6-10) New faces: C Mitch Morse, DT Ed Oliver, WR John Brown, WR Cole Beasley, OL Cody Ford, OG Spencer Long, OG Quinton Spain, OT Ty Nsekhe, OT Laadrian Waddle, TE Tyler Kroft, TE Lee Smith, TE Dawson Knox, RB T.J. Yeldon, RB Frank Gore, RB Devin Singletary, CB Kevin Johnson, CB E.J. Gaines, WR Andre Roberts
They’re gone: DT Kyle Williams, TE Charles Clay, OG John Miller, OT Jordan Mills, WR Deonte Thompson 2019 snapshot: Mostly patient a year ago, the Bills went crazy in free agency this offseason, adding both quality and quantity with all kinds of deals.
Morse isn’t worth the largest contract in NFL history for a center (four years, $44.5million), but GM Brandon Beane found bargains on the O-line in Nsekhe (two years, $10million), Spain (one year, $2 million) and Waddle (one year, $2 million). After jumping up in Round 2 to nab Ford — who could play tackle or guard — the Bills should have a much improved front five with four new starters.
Buffalo found QB Josh Allen more weapons in Brown, Beasley, Kroft and Knox, a third-rounder with athletic upside. Each were reasonable investments, especially because they’ll help determine just how quickly Allen is progressing. Answers were also added to replace the aging Lesean Mccoy, with Singletary (third round) drafted and Gore and Yeldon added in free agency. Despite extending contractyear DE Jerry Hughes, the Bills didn’t add an edge rusher to complement him, which they might regret unless Shaq Lawson takes a major step. On the bright side, though, they managed to get Oliver at No. 9 overall. Not nearly the polished pass
NEXT SUNDAY
NFC previews rusher Aaron Donald was coming out of Pitt, Oliver nonetheless has similar athletic gifts and will be disruptive (if not a finisher) from Day 1.
• Two years removed from a 9-7 campaign and a playoff appearance, the Bills are certainly capable of going over seven wins. But Allen must develop as a passer, making this a bit of a risky play.
• Only one team, the 2008 Dolphins, has taken the AFC East from the New England Patriots since 2003, and that was with Tom Brady missing virtually all season. Even at +700, the Bills’ odds to win their first division title since 1995 probably aren’t worth taking. Bottom line: The spending spree looked a little wild, but the Bills structured contracts smartly and didn’t take on much risk. They also managed to address most major holes, with plenty of upside in the draft class. NEW YORK JETS (4-12) New faces: RB Le’veon Bell, LB C.J. Mosley, DT Quinnen Williams, WR Jamison Crowder, OG Kelechi Osemele, CB Brian Poole, QB Trevor Siemian, WR Josh Bellamy, WR Deonte Thompson, K Chandler Catanzaro, OLB Jachai Polite
They’re gone: OG James Carpenter, C Spencer Long, CB Buster Skrine, DL Mike Pennel, WR Andre Roberts, K Jason Myers, S Terrence Brooks, WR Jermaine Kearse, RB Isaiah Crowell 2019 snapshot: Few teams in the league had a more complicated offseason than the Jets, who apparently disliked their own moves from this spring so much that the man who made them is now gone. Former GM Mike Maccagnan was fired in May, with Joe Douglas hired in June.
That came after Maccagnan hired Adam Gase as head coach, led a free agent spending spree for Bell, Mosely and Crowder, and ran the draft room as normal in April. Did the team finally get it right by hiring Douglas? Or does that bizarre sequence of events simply show a dysfunctional organization? Maccagnan’s moves certainly raised a few eyebrows. He made outlandish investments at two of the league’s least valuable positions in running back (Bell; four years, $52million) and inside linebacker (Mosley; five years, $85million), then added an expensive slot wideout (Crowder; three years, $28.5million) just a few months after extending Quincy Enunwa, who predominantly plays the slot. The draft was more encouraging, as Williams was clearly the best player available, even at a crowded position with Leonard Williams, Steve Mclendon and newly re-signed Henry Anderson. Third-round picks Polite and OT Chuma Edoga each bring some upside (albeit amid character concerns), and TE Trevon Wesco (fourth round) should be a nice Swiss-army knife as a tight end/h-back.
• The Jets managed just four wins a year ago, but with several major talent upgrades, they could reasonably flirt with the postseason. It’s not hard to see them topping their 7-win over/under.
• As far as MVP longshots go, you could do far worse than Sam Darnold (+7500), who came on strong to finish his rookie season and now has Adam Gase as his head coach.
Bottom line: It was probably the right move to fire Maccagnan, but it’s hard to justify the process that led up to it or the timing. Still, if Williams stars like expected — he’ll need to sign his contract and report to camp first — this team looks much more talented.
—Field Level Media