Thursday’s debate will be all about candidates’ electability

WASHINGTON >> It has become a habit to scold Democratic voters who say electability is their standard in deciding whom to support for their party’s presidential nomination. Forecasts made hours before Election Day three years ago went spectacularly awry, so who knows?

Yet like it or not, the most important watchers of the Democratic debate on Thursday will be electability voters, who happen to constitute a majority of the party. And they’re right to believe the priority in 2020 is defeating President Trump. A man who invents the trajectory of a hurricane isn’t someone whom we should entrust with four more years of power.

Still, the dynamic going into this encounter is very different from that of July’s faceoffs — and not just because there will only be 10 candidates. Rather quickly, the Democratic presidential race has come down to three candidates: former Vice President Joe Biden, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. The seven others will have to decide which of these three they most want to bring down.

Warren has had by far the best year. This makes her a target in a way she wasn’t before. She profited from not sharing the stage with Biden in the first two debate rounds, insulating her from the fractiousness that was directed initially toward the front-runner but eventually engulfed nearly everyone in the vicinity. Warren thus had the freedom to highlight her impressive list of policy proposals and to look “presidential.”

The electability test is often used against her. The doubts about whether she can beat Trump are sometimes expressed in ideological terms (“she’s too left”) and, much more guardedly, about who she is. Can a Harvard professor win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin? Could the sexism that helped undermine Hillary Clinton also undercut Warren?

I know bringing up the issue of sexism risks engaging in it. Nonetheless, Democratic voters are asking this question.

Warren therefore has one big task: to persuade doubters she can beat Trump. How do we know this? A fascinating poll in June by the Democratic data firm Avalanche found Biden ahead with 29% to 17% for Sanders and 16% for Warren. But when the same voters were asked who they would make president with a “magic wand,” 21% picked Warren, with Biden and Sanders getting 19% each. The bottom line: If Democrats think she can win next November, she can win primary and caucus contests in February and March.

Biden needs a commanding performance this week. He continues to enjoy the biggest leads in polling matchups with Trump and there’s the sense that he can carry Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. But Biden’s lessthan-stellar debate outings (particularly in June) and various missteps raise questions about his general-election prospects. Easing those doubts is his one and only job.

For Sanders, the question is whether he can break out beyond his seemingly rock-solid base of loyalists. A “New Bernie” is both an impossibility and a bad idea for his brand as a conviction politician. But he won’t win unless he can expand his base.

As for everyone else, California Sen. Kamala Harris and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg are within striking distance of the top three, and someone among Thursday’s remaining five could catch a break if one of the current leaders falters.

For now, nearly two-thirds of Democrats support one of the three leaders. And things will stay that way if Sanders’ devoted band keeps the faith — and if Biden and Warren persuade Democrats they can, indeed, throw Trump out of the White House.