Manaea, Fiers each make case for a start
SEATTLE >> That Champagne rain is no new feeling for this A’s team; for a second year in a row, at inside the plastic tents pitched within same ballpark’s visiting clubhouse, no less, The A’s celebrated their shot, a guaranteed ticket in.
Sean Manaea and Mike Fiers were at the forefront of the party — Fiers sauntering about the space in his custom robe, Manaea’s cheers boomed as he sought new heads on which to dump another round of booze — they’d done their jobs for the regular season, after all. They’d each submitted auditions for wildcard starter, so all they could do now is relax and smile.
With Saturday’s 1-0 win over the Mariners, the game against the Tampa Bay Rays will be played at the Oakland Coliseum on Wednesday, the first time the A’s have hosted a wild-card game.
Before Saturday’s win, manager Bob Melvin said location of the game itself could play a factor in whom he picks to start.
So, who should start? There’s a case to be made for both starters, so let’s break down the pros and cons. PROS: MIKE FIERS, GOOD IN OAKLAND AND AGAINST THE RAYS >> Fiers was not only the A’s most consistent starter this season, but one of the better starters in baseball over his 12-game win streak. Over those 20 starts spanning from his no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on May 7 until his Aug. 26 win over the Kansas City Royals, Fiers’ 2.44 ERA
ranked fourth in the majors.
He wasn’t registering many stats at any high clips, there weren’t many superlatives that colored his dominance, but the traditional markers — a low ERA, 12 wins — best represented Fiers reliability, a type that re- ally sat at the forefront of a mid-summer rocket launch into the 90-plus win team they are now.
One essential stat that’s uncurled from Fiers’ season, though, is his numbers at the Coliseum. The front office might first look at Fiers’ 2.90 ERA at home record.
Because 38 percent of contact made off Fiers is a fly ball, the Coliseum should play in his favor in a crucial game where one sneaky home run typical in this “juiced ball” era could dictate the game.
Another thing to consider: If Manaea were to start and the A’s win the wild-card game, Fiers would be on turn to start the ALDS Game 1 in Houston.
Location aside, Fiers has pitched well this year against a tough Rays lineup. Some of Tampa Bay’s best hitters bat left-handed. In two games (12 innings), Fiers has a 2.25 ERA, the Rays batting .171. Plus, the Rays aren’t necessarily home run hitters (they rank 21st in baseball with 215 total), so his 13.8 fly ball/home run rate could be taken with a grain against the Rays
But the wild card game cannot be played with future considerations in mind; one move not made to preserve for future games might ensure that said future game isn’t played at all.
The best option for a Wednesday game at the Oakland Coliseum could very well involve Fiers on that mound at least once more. CONS: MIKE FIERS, NOT GREAT LATELY >> But, perhaps the A’s might consider Fiers’ latest looks as opposed to the whole. We know that, as a whole, Fiers has been tops and we know that they may want to give the right-hander a shot he wasn’t granted in 2018 (in favor of Liam Hendriks the opener).
But, save for eight inning of shutout baseball against the Texas Rangers in his last start in Oakland, Fiers struggled a bit this month. A stinger he felt throwing a cutter early in his start in Texas got to him mentally, contributing to a three-run, 1 2/3 inning outing that followed a one-inning, ninerun start against the Astros in Houston.
Including that eight-inning start, Fiers has a 7.84 ERA in the month of September.
UP NEXT
A’s (Roark 10-9) at Mariners (Dunn, 0-0), noon, today, NBCCA
PROS: SEAN MANAEA, FRESH ARM, GOOD AGAINST LEFTHANDERS >> I wrote extensively about why Manaea might be matchup heaven against the Rays. In here I explain how the left-handed matchups with the Rays’ best hitters might favor Manaea.
And the left-on-lefty matchup isn’t the only dynamic that might swing in his favor, Manaea’s slider against right-handers has been lethal as it works with his great changeup to play up a low-90s fastball — a tad slower this year off his shoulder surgery.
Something to consider is Manaea is a fresh arm that the Rays haven’t faced this season.
Manaea also sets up the potential for a smooth piggy-back situation with some other key left-handers in the bullpen. Jesús Luzardo looked lethal in his latest outing in Seattle, throwing two perfect innings with three strikeouts, dipping all in to his deadly arsenal. He’s grown accustomed to treating relief appearances like intensified-starts, almost adopting a closer mentality, he said.
CONS: SEAN MANAEA, MYSTERY FACTOR >> Manaea has a 1.21 ERA, so he hasn’t struggled in any of his starts, home or away. Though, he does have a 2.13 ERA (3 runs in 12 innings) at home in three starts versus a 0.53 ERA (1 run in 17 innings) on the road in two starts.
The issue could be in the uncertainty. Manaea has only made five starts in 2019 without much of a hitch. What if the hitch pops up at the worst time?
Of course, risk is one thing the A’s won’t shy away from.
My opinion? Play the hot hand The A’s shouldn’t shy away from the hot hand, and Manaea’s left-hand is on fire (in a good way, he’s fine). Fiers put the team on his back, but Manaea is the freshest arm who can help carry the team to post-wild card world they haven’t reached since 2013.